Should I move now or after Brexit?

[Nevermindhey]

My plan was to move next summer and start looking in the spring. Now with all the doomed forecasts about the housing market post-brexit I don’t know what to do.

In my area the housing market seems buoyant. There are four sold signs in the surrounding streets and nothing sticking so I think I would sell quickly.

I am struggling with lack of space where I am so I don’t want to get stuck here if house prices plummet and the market takes several years to stabilise.

What do you think?!

Analytical
According to the Bank of England's own figures, interest rates fell in the 1980s
ODFOD
www.economicshelp.org/blog/1485/interest-rates/historical-real-interest-rate/
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7817453.stm

@ta1kinpeace

Interest rates fell from 16% in 1980 to 8% in 1988. It is a historical fact. Stop trying to spread misinformation.

analytical
Do look at the charts ....
the rates went up and down like a yoyo
because the fight against inflation was being fought
it had NOTHING to do with house prices

If your theory has an iota of reality, why did prices rise so much when rates did not move for years ?

@ta1kinpeace
Here are the figures from the Bank of England's own website. You will note interest rates fell from 16% in July 1980 to 7.88% in June 1988. The BoE own figures prove that are talking complete and utter codswallop in trying to claim interest rates increased:
03 Jun 1988 7.88%
08 May 1987 8.88%
23 May 1986 9.88%
11 Jul 1985 11.88%
06 Jul 1984 10.00%
14 Jun 1983 9.56%
08 Jun 1982 12.63%
25 Aug 1981 12.69%
03 Jul 1980 16.00%

www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp

03 Jun 1988 7.88%
08 May 1987 8.88%
23 May 1986 9.88%
11 Jul 1985 11.88%
06 Jul 1984 10.00%
14 Jun 1983 9.56%
08 Jun 1982 12.63%
25 Aug 1981 12.69%
03 Jul 1980 16.00%

You are not very analytical are you
you have missed out the rises on
15/9/81 12/10/81 28/10/81 20/4/82 26/11/82
etc ad nauseam

@Ta1kinpeace
Do you really think MNers are such fools that they will believe a huge fall in rates from 16% in 1980 to 7.88% in 1988 was in fact a rise?
I am afraid you are completely out of touch with reality.

Over the decade as a whole rates fell
because inflation was driven down
it had nothing to do with house prices

@Ta1kinpeace

Look at the graph for the 1980s. Interests rates went DOWN
(except in your world, where up is down, and down is up):

www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/uk-base-rates-79-17.png

Which bit of "down" is
8.88% on 29/6/84
to
12.00% on 11/7/84
or
8.50% on 23/11/84
to
13.88% on 28/01/85
or
7.38% on 17/05/88
to
14.88 on 16/10/89

just that I remember my mortgage fluctuating with each and every one

Over the decade as a whole rates fell

Exactly. And house prices went up with falling interest rates.

Low interest rates are positive for house prices. High interest rates are negative for house prices. If rates now rose to 16% again, nobody would be able to afford their mortgage, and the house prices would fall.

Rates cannot go above 2% in the next 15 years
because of corporate debt

If interest rates went up to 16%, house prices would crash.
(except in your world, where rises in interest rates do not affect prices).

But they won't go up to 16%
because of much more important factors.

The rate rose in the 80's because of inflation, not the housing market.

The primary driver of rates now is electronic currency flows and corporate leverage

If rates went up to 16%, house prices would crash. Many people would be unable to afford their mortgages.

High interest rates are bad for house prices. Low interest rates are good for house prices. Contrary to your very odd beliefs that interest rates do not affect house prices.

Analyticalchick.... are you fabuloussophie?

@ Alexalee No, I am AnalyticalChick. Are you QueenCamilla?

I am trying to explain that if interest rates were lowered and another round of QE launched, it would help house prices, just as they have helped house prices since the financial crisis. But @Ta1kinpeace says low interest rates and QE have had no effect on house prices.

I don't think another round of qe would make a difference to house prices... affordability has been maxed out.
If mmr was relaxed and lending multiples raised to say 6 times income then prices might rise a bit more.
But btl landlords aren't buying London property anymore due to new taxation and low yields so that would also need to be reversed to get another bump in prices.
However I doubt any of that will happen and the stagnation will change into falls and then stagnation like between 2009-2013 when the government decided to throw petrol on the fire with htb... hey they might start hun on 2nd hand homes.. that would definitely pump up prices.
Htb is the biggest reason for the rises since the financial crises, low interest rates also played a part, not as big though.
If htb was withdrawn Tomorrow then house prices would probably fall 40% ish in London in the next year or so

You are missing the nuance of what Ta1kin is saying, Analytical. It is pointless to incessantly repeat your point that interest rates 'went down in the 80s'. It was a ten year period in which rates went up and down repeatedly. Just taking a very broad brush approach to what was a very volatile (in interest rate terms) decade, is utterly meaningless. You won't understand anything if you are not prepared to look in more detail at what is a much more complex issue than you imagine.

Do you think they will really withdraw htb? I can imagine it being expanded after Brexit, rather than withdrawn. It is a bad policy that pushes up prices, but that doesn't mean it won't be expanded.

It was not a very volatile decade. Interest rates followed a clear downward trajectory from 1980 to 1988, with some minor fluctuations (just look at the clearly downward graph - www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/uk-base-rates-79-17.png).

In any case there are many actions the government and the BoE can take to boost the market. As @Alexalee said, they can also increase mortgage lending multiples and HTB, plus lower stamp duty.

No I don't think they will remove htb until at least 2021 which is when it's due to end.
As you say it is more likely they will expand it

It was not a very volatile decade.

Lol! Look at Ta1kin's post of 21.29. Are you seriously telling me that a jump in base rate of over 7 points in less than 18 months is not volatile?! I don't think you understand, I really don't. It's all very well scrabbling around on google trying to piece information together, but if you don't have enough of it, it the relevant professional training, to piece it together intelligently, then you are liable to reach false conclusions.

You are ignoring @Ta1kin's very clear claim that interest rates rose in the 1980s, when they actually followed a very clear overall downward path during that decade, as she herself later admitted. The nuances of @Ta1kin's month to month mortgage repayments are irrelevant when looking at the overall major downward trend in UK interest rates, and upward trend in house prices.

In any case, there are many actions the authorities can take in response to Brexit. Your suggestion that prices are 100% certain to crash when we leave the EU is pure conjecture and fear mongering. It is Project Fear on steroids.