Should I move now or after Brexit?

[Nevermindhey]

My plan was to move next summer and start looking in the spring. Now with all the doomed forecasts about the housing market post-brexit I don’t know what to do.

In my area the housing market seems buoyant. There are four sold signs in the surrounding streets and nothing sticking so I think I would sell quickly.

I am struggling with lack of space where I am so I don’t want to get stuck here if house prices plummet and the market takes several years to stabilise.

What do you think?!

@ShovingLeopard
There are loads of uncertainties weighing on markets worldwide. The FTSE is holding up well despite Project Fear, and I cannot see much evidence of a housing market crash in the UK. If you are trying to push Project Fear on MN, I doubt you will succeed. And besides, Brexit could cause house prices to soar, which would be welcomed by many sellers.

Christ alive, you think I'm trying to 'push project fear on MN'?! You think this is all it boils down to? Some juvenile tribal bollocks?

It is clear from your posting that you have very little real knowledge or understanding of macroeconomics, financial markets, or even the likely ramifications of Brexit, especially if there is a no-deal crashing out. Unfortunately, I do have a good understanding of economics, and financial markets, and am very, very seriously worried. I wish I also had only a superficial idea of what's going on, that had been cobbled together from news outlets that confirm my existing bias. I would then be as blithe as you apparently are. As it is, I am very concerned for the future, not just for me and my family, but the country as a whole.

If you don't believe that property prices might be about to crash, take a look at the latest data on prime London, and also inner suburbs such as Hammersmith and Fulham. There is likely to be a ripple out from there. If it hasn't hit your area yet, I wouldn't be sure it won't.

analyticalChick
Brexit could cause house prices to soar, which would be welcomed by many sellers.
Could you explain how
as I must be rather thick

@ShovingLeopard
Brexit could cause house prices to rise, fall or stay the same. Uncertainty works all ways. You do not know the future.

analyticalchick
Could you explain the basis for your assertion that Brexit could cause house prices to rise ?
Just that I've not seen it in any of the sources I have read and I'm sure you would not have randomly made it up.

@Ta1kinpeace
If the Bank of England responds to Brexit by cutting interest rates and launching another round of QE, house prices could rise in the same way they have risen previously when interest rates have been cut and QE has been launched.

Analytical, no you are still not getting it. The uncertainty will only cause house prices to drop.

Actual events may cause them to rise or fall. But in advance of the actual events, e.g. Brexit, uncertainty about such a major issue will only cause them to drop.

@ShovingLeopard
The massive uncertainty around the Great Financial Crisis lead to interest rate cuts and QE, which caused house prices to rise significantly. However much you want to spread fear that house prices will crash, you do not know the future any more than Mystic Meg.

analytical
What rate do you think interest rates should drop to that would make house prices rise?
Any why would another round of QE make house prices rice?
Do you have any sources for your hypothesis because no economist I've heard of thinks that Brexit will make house prices rise.

Analytical Are you serious? They crashed at the start of the recession, and took years to recover, despite frantic and repeated QE (i.e. devaluing) from the BoE that had negative ramifications, not just for homeowners, that are still felt today.

I repeat, it is monumentally stupid to voluntarily sign up for more of it. About as stupid as it gets.

And I don't want to 'spread fear' that house prices will fall. I have a significant amount of equity tied up in my property, and I am concerned that what is effectively a large part of my pension will go poof for no good reason. I am also very concerned about what an unnecessary, extra-severe downturn will mean for low-income people, and disabled people, who always bear the brunt of government cuts.

@ShovingLeopard QE and interest rate cuts boosted house prices across the country, if you hadn't noticed.

@Ta1kinpeace I haven't a clue how much the BoE would cut interest rates after Brexit. You'd have to ask Mark Carney that.

QE and interest rate cuts boosted house prices across the country, if you hadn't noticed.
Correlation does not mean causation.
Rates were cut from 5% to 0.5%

I haven't a clue how much the BoE would cut interest rates after Brexit. You'd have to ask Mark Carney that.
Well, they have just raised them to 0.75%
not much leeway for another 4.5% cut .....

@Ta1kinpeace There is zero doubt that reducing interest rates has always been positive for house prices in the past. It is bizarre that anyone would try to argue otherwise.
Other countries, such as Japan and the EU have negative interest rates, so it not impossible to reduce down to minus 3 or 4%.

The prices took a hammering before the QE had an effect. And if you recall, it took multiple rounds of QE to have an effect - costing the country billions. As Ta1kin says, Carney has MUCH less room to manoeuvre this time. And why put ourselves in that position in the first place, given how expensive and detrimental it is?

There is zero doubt that reducing interest rates has always been positive for house prices in the past. It is bizarre that anyone would try to argue otherwise.
Link please

Other countries, such as Japan and the EU have negative interest rates, so it not impossible to reduce down to minus 3 or 4%.
But Japan's house prices have not risen in 20 years despite the negative rates ...
and I think you need to check your data about those rates

Correlation is not causation after all

@Ta1kinpeace
It extraordinary to deny the historical fact that reducing interest rates has always been positive for house prices and raising interest rates is negative, so there no point is discussing this any further.

analytical
House prices rose in the 80's along with interest rates
please explain that one

@Ta1kinpeace
By your logic, sellers would love to see interest rates increase from 0.75% to 5%, because it would give a boost to their house prices. But there really is no point in having such a bizarre conversation, so let's just leave it there.

Analytical
Um no.
I've bought and sold several houses over several decades.
I know that there is no causative correlation between house prices and interest rates.
So your obsession with low interest rates is utterly irrelevant to the factors that will come into play over Brexit.

FWIW I'd love rates to rise because I cleared my mortgage years ago
and am getting rubbish rates on my savings at the moment

I have a significant amount of equity tied up in my property, and I am concerned that what is effectively a large part of my pension will go poof for no good reason.

That's the problem with imaginary values - there's always the risk that they will go poof at the most inopportune moment.

House prices rose in the 80's along with interest rates

You are talking utter rubbish @Ta1kinpeace. In the 80s, interest rates fell from 17% in 1980 to 8% in 1988. In 1988-89 they rose back to 15%, which caused house prices to crash. See the graph in the link below.

www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/uk-base-rates-79-17.png

which caused house prices to crash
No
you are utterly wrong on that
the house price crash was a symptom not the cause
the interest rate changes in the 80's were all about RPI inflation
I know because I had a mortgage then

I’d move now. Not overstretch, and somewhere I’d be happy to stay for at least 10 years.

@a1kinpeace
You said "interest rates rose in the 80s".

According to the Bank of England's own figures, interest rates fell in the 1980s. So please stop trying to spread misinformation.