London property downturn?

[Loopyloo80]

Someone on another post mentioned this. Has anyone heard anything?

Latest Zoopla said prices are up 1.5% in my area over the last three months.

I have a property to sell and now I'm nervous...

Have a read of some market reports e.g. www.rightmove.co.uk/news/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-February-London-FINAL-1.pdf

Top of the market is down. Prices still rising in the mid and bottom end of market.

People are nervous. Brexit. Recession. Potential for rising interest rates. Bubble. Price disconnected with demand and salary multiple. Stamp duty is prohibitively high and discourages people to move up the chain. No one can ever believe there might be a crash.... until it happens.

Things are certainly cooling but well priced houses/flats in good areas priced correctly are still selling quickly. Unless you have a prime property to sell. Those aren't going anywhere.

kioro - thank you! I will have a read. I have a two-bed house in a popular area, zone 2. Here's hoping it sells... so hopeful it will sell quickly and not at a terrible price! (Basically want the same as my neighbour got for hers two years ago.)

I'm seeing more and more reductions in N1, WC1 and EC1...the most notable was a 2000 sq.ft house in N1 for 1.6mio... so about £730/sq.ft... if I were looking for a property I'd definitely wait a bit.

Other boroughs in London going up though, so hopefully you're not that central...

I think if you want the same price as two years ago zone 2 you should be fine. Prices have risen in my part of zone 3 by a lot in 2 years.

I have a figure in my mind that is around £100k less than they are selling for now that I'd like to sell for this time next year and expect to get.

But of course only time will tell

Crikey! So much uncertainly! I keep seeing the same properties come up again and again for sale.

BTL buyers are not buying now due to all the changes in costs which mean that rents don't cover costs.

This has taken a massive cohort out of the market.

Zone 3 S London houses round us still climbing. The first £1m houses in our road have sold since they went on the market after Christmas.
Semis, in a residential area.

I'm on the outskirts & I don't think prices are falling yet, but properties are definitely taking longer to sell than in the not too distant past so by default if that continues & the rest of the new houses & flats due to be built still are then prices will fall eventually.

There's an article in today's Times property section about selling in a downturn, and one piece of advice from an estate agent is to remember the four Ps - price, price, price, and presentation. Which perhaps a bit of a joke when in the past it's often been estate agents who've actively encouraged kite flying prices. However now there are so many of them, and not a lot is shifting, so they're all desperate to make sales.

I think sentiment has definitely changed, and perhaps that's not surprising when prices have got so ridiculous.

Back in 2010/11 I was looking with a dd at 2 bed maisonettes in a non fashionable part of SW17 - Tooting.
We looked at a lot. Back then all the m/ettes in reasonable roads were priced at £250kish to £280kish, , depending on condition.
Now they're routinely priced at £500k-£600k. Nuff said, perhaps.

We bought in summer 2010, 2 bed garden zone 2. 305k. In 2014 it was valued at 625k but we didn't put it on the market to test that. I've kept my eye on right move and I'd reckon that figure has stayed completely static, if anything just down a fraction. There is such a small amount of people on earth with 60k plus for a deposit, plus the salary to support a huge mortgage. As prices go up, the number who can afford it goes down. From my experience, I'd say London zone 2 reached its limit some time back. It would come as no surprise if prices went down fairly soon.

I'm struggling to see why a London price drop could be a bad thing.

It is a bad thing if you are in negative equity. Millennial Mn has a very short memory and no knowledge of recent history - prices peaked outside the south east in 2007, and there was a spate of negative equity in the late 80s along with mortgage rates of about 15%.

Mn also wants cheaper London housing and fewer landlords buying. Apparently this is happening.

No slump just a stand-off between greedy vendors & buyers who are not idiots. Asking prices in the centre of London seem to be increasing week on week. The EAs seem to think they can independently push the market higher. Anything reasonably priced is still selling.

Lots still selling here e17. Shotgun it would be bad for people who just managed to scrape together the money to buy. You can't help those still scraping at the expenses of the ones who just scraped it!

Prices just settling and staying the same would be better than a crash overall. And lots more homes.

Much slower market in SE4 (Zone 2) than pre-Brexit, with more reductions. But realistically priced stuff is selling quickly.

Interesting thread

stand-off between greedy vendors & buyers who are not idiots

I very much agree with the above

Fed of vendors/EAs trying to eek even more ££ out of us, we are FTBs who cannot just magic up another 10 or 20k

Yes we could save it up over x period of time but it's also related to the quality and type of properties available.

Loads on the market here in SE London, a lot that you can see the vendors have literally done nothing to improve it over time but are still demanding top ££ for it because the "market is so buoyant and fast moving" as one EA put it to me.

We are going to keep looking for the right thing at the right price, watching with interest re the property market and also interest rates.

I vaguely remember back in the 90s when the property market crashed, interest rates were double figures, people giving their keys back to the mortgage company etc- this was mainly from overhearing my parents' conversations about it.

Only say this as I remember a pupil from my school- her father became bankrupt, could not pay for their home and sadly took his own life.

I'm not advocating an all out crash, but SURELY something has got to give in the property market?

Yes, same here. Keenly priced things sell quickly. Keenly is still 2011 price x2 and upwards.
Negative equity is only a problem if it's stopping you from moving. Current high prices in London are stopping loads of people from moving. To be honest if we lost 75% of the value of our house, and the next rung of the ladder dropped by 75% too, we would still be massively quids in, despite the negative equity we'd have to deal with. It would be easier for us to move than it is now, if we were in negative equity.

That's the key thing isn't it - the next step up being achievable (as you say, assuming no negative equity? And ftb being able to buy within reasonable distance of where they work.

South east London/Kent borders here, seeing a lot of reductions but as pp usually those that are overpriced anyway, my dd sold her one bed flat within ten days of going on rightmove, but was fairly priced & move in condition so ideal for ftb with no money to spare.

loopylou we are looking for my son in se4. not sure whether your house will be what he is after but if you pm me you might have a buyer!

jay - I wish I was! But am Hackney. Let me know if that's a neighbourhood he's interested in!!

grubby - I feel exactly the same. If the next rung up also took a big offer, id take one too! But they don't seem to be in my neighbourhood...

i dont know how hackney connects to other parts of london. also no idea of prices there...we live in surrey. if you have a ballpark figure i would know whether it was in his range. i know he has lved in hackney before..he is renting in south london at the moment.

OP if you're in Hackney you're laughing. It's still a very popular area to live in especially anything keenly priced. From what I can see of the studio/1 beds I've been keeping track of, they're all selling. I called up to ask about a studio the other day and was told it went for way over the asking price.

Seen lots of reductions in South Essex but that is because EAs are taking the bloody p*ss in overpricing everything. Otherwise the market is stagnant.

I'm confident my London home will sell fast, there is huge demand on the area.