London property downturn?

[Loopyloo80]

Someone on another post mentioned this. Has anyone heard anything?

Latest Zoopla said prices are up 1.5% in my area over the last three months.

I have a property to sell and now I'm nervous...

[RutStuck]

I'm in the "l fear loss more than l desire gain" camp l think. I don't seem to have the stomach for the bidding madness. I guess successful bidders are in the opposite camp.

[EssentialHummus]

rut I'd guess (because we've been in a similar situation) that these were buyers with a potentially higher budget, who saw something special/unusual in the property and thought, we're having it at whatever cost.

People are also not that good at acting rationally in "sealed bids" situations - there's an element of game theory to it.

[RutStuck]

Just heard back on a sealed bid that we were too nervous to take part in (London). The EA gave us an inside track as he's hoping to keep us warm for something else. The winning bid was so astronomically above everyone else. They took it into a whole different price bracket. A rare property etc but still. It's hard to get inside the minds of some people. I'm so nervous about overpaying and ending up in negative equity yet others seem to hand over their money with abandon.

[RinaH]

What's wrong with EAs? They seem to want to self-destruct. Why don't they lay it on the line to vendors? They can't be making any money in a stand-off. Surely the EA who makes the quick sales will attract volume?

[Pixelated]

I agree with the comments about greedy vendors/unrealistic estate agents (and vice versa). I am looking to buy, currently renting, saw a property recently up for sale for 25 per cent more than the vendor paid for it this time last year . BTL owner unwilling to budge on price. Relatively new property, absolutely no improvement work done at all to justify the difference. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it's been on the market since last November with no takers, me included.

Previously, buyers might have been willing to take a risk perhaps paying a slightly higher price knowing that annual rises in the property market would cover it. Not so now. Too many variables and too much uncertainty.

Motivated sellers with properties that are correctly priced are selling.

[RinaH]

I think if prices were back at 2013/2014 prices (which were still crazy) they would be snapped up. When l look at zoopla sold prices going back a year ago they seem so more reasonable than current stock.

[Ciutadella]

Interesting. I do seem to notice ongoing increases in asking prices - although who knows what the final prices will be? Lots of reductions as pp say, but also quite a few very quick sales!

Very interesting about the impact of btl tax changes. Yes, companies may take up some of the existing btl properties that individuals sell off, but I would have thought large companies would be interested in large blocks rather than the occasional house and flat dotted about here and there which small btlers have bought. Much simpler to manage a large block. Then there are the small btlers setting up companies though i think I read that may make mortgage finance harder to get.

It does seem possible that btl may account for a (slightly?) smaller share of the market in future, which would put some downward pressure on prices.

[Zampa]

I'm under offer on my 2 bed garden flat in Zone 2, SW London. We had 20 viewings on Day 1, 5 asking price offers and it was sold after best bids for over asking price within a week. We priced it keenly and it achieved the top estate agents' valuation (which was £100K more than 18 months ago).

I'm not convinced that the London market has slowed down yet!

[Binkybix]

BTL buyers are not buying now due to all the changes in costs which mean that rents don't cover costs.This has taken a massive cohort out of the market

Companies don't need to pay, so they are still buying. BTL will consolidate but not completely taken out possibly.

[another20]

Yes the BTL owners (esp foreign) are selling up.

But listing at silly prices (high).

Due to changes in increased SD, what LTV banks will lend on and reduction on what you can claim against tax another BTL buyer will not be along to take it off their hands as the numbers don't now stack up (unless you have small mortgage). So that is a big chunk of buyers that have disappeared overnight.

All I get on my RM alerts is reductions .... esp for off plan new builds.

[TurquoiseDress]

lala

I agree about those properties being reduced and becoming ones you could consider, but they have lots of negatives/simply are not that nice.

If the market was going crazy and people were just buying whatever came up/one viewing then make an offer in excess of asking price, we'd be more prepared to compromise big time.

At the moment things do seem slow.

Also notice there are a lot of chain free properties which are BTL owners selling up, living elsewhere but trying to liquidate.

Unfortunately they are v often deluded stuck on a specific asking price and will not entertain offers- despite being on the market for a good few months.

[lalalonglegs]

Zone 2 SW London here - prices are definitely coming down, I get lots of alerts every day on houses that have been reduced into a price bracket I could consider but they're often not that nice: the sort of houses that sell in a boom but people won't compromise for in a less racy market. Certainly when I walk around my neighbourhood, I notice "For Sale" signs on properties for months at a time, very few "Under Offer". The Times had a front page story this week (I can't remember which day) that said London prices were stagnating, properties were generally taking a lot longer to sell and, in their opinion, this would last for some years mainly as a consequence of Brexit.

[EssentialHummus]

jay I'm in se4 and know the area/market/agents pretty well, please shout if you want to chat.

[Loopyloo80]

jay - I think hackney might be pricier than SE4, but I'll send you a DM!

[MiniMaxi]

Anecdotally it looks that way to me. Or at least, places aren't selling at the inflated prices they would've got pre Brexit.

Nice 2 bed flat near me (zone 2) went on market nearly a year ago - has dropped 18% and still not sold. There is a lot of competition from new builds round here, though.

[highinthesky]

Seen lots of reductions in South Essex but that is because EAs are taking the bloody p*ss in overpricing everything. Otherwise the market is stagnant.

I'm confident my London home will sell fast, there is huge demand on the area.

[alazuli]

OP if you're in Hackney you're laughing. It's still a very popular area to live in especially anything keenly priced. From what I can see of the studio/1 beds I've been keeping track of, they're all selling. I called up to ask about a studio the other day and was told it went for way over the asking price.

[Jayfee]

i dont know how hackney connects to other parts of london. also no idea of prices there...we live in surrey. if you have a ballpark figure i would know whether it was in his range. i know he has lved in hackney before..he is renting in south london at the moment.

[Loopyloo80]

jay - I wish I was! But am Hackney. Let me know if that's a neighbourhood he's interested in!!

grubby - I feel exactly the same. If the next rung up also took a big offer, id take one too! But they don't seem to be in my neighbourhood...

[Jayfee]

loopylou we are looking for my son in se4. not sure whether your house will be what he is after but if you pm me you might have a buyer!

[dontcallmelen]

South east London/Kent borders here, seeing a lot of reductions but as pp usually those that are overpriced anyway, my dd sold her one bed flat within ten days of going on rightmove, but was fairly priced & move in condition so ideal for ftb with no money to spare.

[ShotgunNotDoingThePans]

That's the key thing isn't it - the next step up being achievable (as you say, assuming no negative equity? And ftb being able to buy within reasonable distance of where they work.

[GrubbyWindows]

Yes, same here. Keenly priced things sell quickly. Keenly is still 2011 price x2 and upwards.
Negative equity is only a problem if it's stopping you from moving. Current high prices in London are stopping loads of people from moving. To be honest if we lost 75% of the value of our house, and the next rung of the ladder dropped by 75% too, we would still be massively quids in, despite the negative equity we'd have to deal with. It would be easier for us to move than it is now, if we were in negative equity.

[TurquoiseDress]

Interesting thread

stand-off between greedy vendors & buyers who are not idiots

I very much agree with the above

Fed of vendors/EAs trying to eek even more ££ out of us, we are FTBs who cannot just magic up another 10 or 20k

Yes we could save it up over x period of time but it's also related to the quality and type of properties available.

Loads on the market here in SE London, a lot that you can see the vendors have literally done nothing to improve it over time but are still demanding top ££ for it because the "market is so buoyant and fast moving" as one EA put it to me.

We are going to keep looking for the right thing at the right price, watching with interest re the property market and also interest rates.

I vaguely remember back in the 90s when the property market crashed, interest rates were double figures, people giving their keys back to the mortgage company etc- this was mainly from overhearing my parents' conversations about it.

Only say this as I remember a pupil from my school- her father became bankrupt, could not pay for their home and sadly took his own life.

I'm not advocating an all out crash, but SURELY something has got to give in the property market?

[EssentialHummus]

Much slower market in SE4 (Zone 2) than pre-Brexit, with more reductions. But realistically priced stuff is selling quickly.