What month will the property crash be obvious in?

[roneik]

Not doom but a question, and I would like to hear some opinions

I reckon by july

BlackbirdOnTheWire The Halifax are drumming, they were a failed bank taken over by Lloyds. Of course all the VIs are out telling you untruth speak . Because it is all on the turn downward
I will tell you the truth we are in the first stages of a crash. People are either too frightened to admit it or delusional

IO mortgages are very much available and a large part of the market Spoke t agent friend today and he says properties coming on thick and fast. Houses which would have been marketed last Spring around the 400-425 mark are on at 350. That seems a good thing as they will sell at that price. We sold a flat in June for 339 he said we would be looking at 295-310 now

"By the way he would know because the information is published and freely available. You have to know how to navigate search engines with appropriate key words"

Women read the financial pages too. We're not all flibberly-gibbits, not to be trusted with the housekeep.

BlackbirdOnTheWire supply and demand reverse roles in a crash

hereandtherex My sincere apologies , I just in haste typed he, I like to think I am enlighten man. I have daughter and had many wives all ran the roost and were very intelligent.
I cannot apologize enough honestly just a typo. It would go against my grain

had many wives . You are a funny man, Roneik.

Right have had a Google. From the FCA, 2.6 million io mortgages to expire within the next 30 years. 9/10 have a strategy to repay it. Leaving 260,000 who don't.

Around 800,000 properties sell in England in each year.

24,000,000 ( 800,000 x 30 years worth of sales) + 260,000 people selling because they have to, say, is not going to be the bubble that collapses the housing market.

Thank you bowlers for looking that up.

I thought hereandthere was spouting bollocks - it seems he/she is!

My parents have 2 IO mortgages and would be classed as having a repayment strategy as one bank allowed sale of property and the other they had some policy or other which they have now cashed in. Its not all as it seems Of all my mates I don't think one has a repayment mortgage! Most of them openly admit they will have to sell up as they have no way of repaying.

But it won't matter, Noddy, because there will just be a gentle influx of properties on to the market over the years. Technically we don't have an official repayment strategy on our own io mortgage; yet we do have a viable plan.

Acout 800000 properties used ton sell , that's dropping like a stone .Why would (SHE) herandherx be talking bollox ?. You are forgetting as well as 60% io in the south east interest only mortgages, virtually all buy to let have been for some time io. Thats part of the reason FTB cannot compete
Why are you all so blinkered, it's like a lion tamer laughing as his last arm went down the lions throat and calling out to the audience he is ok and could somebody det him a plaster please

Bowlers many wives none did get the gold though

Ah but you have not mentioned that 1.4 million expire in the next few years have you 2017 Naughty

I think it will very much matter. I know at least 2 people who are going to be homeless! With maybe about 30k to their name. I am hiding thread now as people who think prices will always rise and those who hope for a crash never ever will agree. .

Gentle influx divide 1.4 million into 3 years , you are having a giraffe moment
2015...2017

The survey on repayment is a bit misleading.

I would guess 1 in 10 of IO mortgages (2000-2010) are probably unaware of the fact they have to repay the capital. A similar percentage were confused during the last big IO mortgage scam - endowments.

Of the remaining 9 in 10, the majority of those plans are more wishful thinking rather than anything concrete - winning the lottery, etc.

Rules of thumb:

The UK has a population of ~60m.
There are - roughly - 3 heads per houses hold, giving ~ 20m dwellings. About half do not have mortgages on them - ~ 10m.
There are IO mortgages on ~ 30% of the mortgaged properties.

Don't hide the thread, Noddy. I neither think prices will automatically keep rising, nor do I want a crash. I just find it interesting, that's all. None of us know what will happen, all we can do is predict and discuss. As I've said before, I think there will be a crash at some stage, I just don't think it's now. And I don't think it'll come from the property market directly such as io mortgages.

Nothing gentle will apply to the crash. The day of reckoning is almost here . The government whoever is to be elected in may, have to make such life changing cuts. With the debt levels not checked, the vultures will move in . All market confidence will wain. All we have seen for years is living standards held up with debt. When that monthly debt is no longer being inputted vast cuts have to be implemented. This will have repercussions "TIMBER "from the back of the room? Tax credits / benefits/ services all to get cut deeply

None of the people I've spoken to about their IO mortgage - about 15 - said they took one out due to unusual financial circumstances i.e. expecting a large payout/inheritance.

ALL said it was because they could not afford to repay the capital.

Naked (no formal capital repayment) IO mortgages are a very specialist market. They only suit a very small number of people. IO mortgages are not a mass market product.

I would be nice to think that the average persons income will accelerate as you get older. That's always been delusional. Its looking downright dumb esp. considering the average wage has fallen in real (and nominal) value over the last 10 years.

Look, the average UK worker's income peaks in their early 30s. The rest of their earnings will be a struggle to pay for kids, a pension, etc.

hereandtherex Actually 25% of households are single person households

roneik made a valid, subtle point (I know, there's a first for everything): 'you have not mentioned that 1.4 million expire'.

My home town and nearby towns has seen the number of house sales dip way below the number of probates. This has been going on since ~2004ish.

The number of empty, little old lady houses are piling up on RM. The local market is just not clearing.

What always amazes me is people taking on these huge mortgages assume they will have a job for the duration
I worked in a car plant that had 40000 workers on two shifts 1968
Move on to the year 2000 that same plant operated with barley 10% of the labor, and production of vehicles had much more than doubled. Technology will take millions of jobs away in the lifespan of a mortgage

There are so few properties available for sale in my area that a property crash wouldn't even be felt. I would like Estate Agents to stop knocking at my door asking us to sell tbh.

(I know, there's a first for everything): Up until that point I liked you
Hey on a form I used to post on , I got much worse than that . Thing is it turned out in the end I was right. The only madness that I didnt predict was another bunch of wallies in government dishing out the same as saved the world batman gordon brown

many wives!? are you rod stewart. he's ahem good with money

SeasonsEating, I get those too, leaflets asking me to sell my house from different Estate Agents. Nice to know I could sell my house if I wanted to.