Few viewings and no offers - it's the time of year, right?

[Amethyst24]

DP's flat has been on the market for a few weeks now with barely a sniff. It's a 1-bed in zone 3, in pretty good condition although it's been tenanted for a few years (tenants have now moved out). Was originally priced at offers over £250K but dropped now to £249.950. Seems on a par with others on the market in the area - competitive if anything.

So am I right in thinking that the market is just really slow at this time of year? We're considering giving the agents a week's notice in the hope that they'll make a massive effort in that time, then taking it off the market until the new year and getting valuations from other agents now we're not facing the issue of the stamp duty threshold.

Also wondered whether putting in a new kitchen might help (it's the only thing in the flat that is really dated). But then people would potentially be viewing it when there's work being done and it's a mess, and if the new kitchen wasn't to their taste it might put them off...

Any words of wisdom?

Yes, for various reasons I had to.

Well very unusual ime to turn down work like that but each to their own. Most interior designers work for free initially and would never turn down work so you must be especially skilled/in demand Your portfolio must be amazing is all I can say Good luck with it!

I think your find many sole traiders would have issues if they suddenly hand a demand for their business with small time frames and a huge amount to do they couldnt take it on.

People get confused on this topic when they say 'the country can't afford house prices to crash'... it's more:

• the government can't afford house prices to crash before the GE, and
• the country can't afford for house prices not to crash

If house prices drop by 25% what proportion of the country will benefit and what proportion will lose out? Roughly 1/3 of people rent, 1/3 of people own outright, 1/3 of people have an outstanding mortgage.

Of those 1/3 with a mortgage, the only ones with an issue will be those with a high LTV who want to move. Also impacted would be those relying on the current value of their house as their retirement plan - however if relying on the phenomenal growth the last 10 years have seen without any economic basis I'd argue that shows retirement planning was absent.

It would be an improvement for those who rent who want to buy and an improvement for those looking to trade up - basically those now in their 20s and 30s who look at their parents lifestyle as an impossibility due to the market manipulations of the last two governments.

I bought again earlier this year and viewed the purchase as a bad investment decision but a good family/lifestyle decision. However that was with a low LTV.
I certainly don't want to see my children dealing with today's house price-wages relationship.

The people who concern me the most - and there have been many on this forum - are those who are really stretching now to buy a starter home (particularly in London) at very high LTVs and stretching affordability. I completely believe that many of those will find themselves trapped in those homes for an awfully long time.

Yes but you said you are part time and building the business! I am an interior designer and have worked for over 15 years and never heard anyone turn down work! As I said good luck you must be an amazing talent

Spot on Rcheshire We cannot expect the whole country to operate around a small number of its citizens

I don't think it will stop at 25% drops , I see maybe 50% or much more .
I believe the economy is going to dip in the new year. With Europe in recession and the general world economy in very near deflationary spiral.
You can get some idea by looking at the price of oil what is happening to global output and trade.Germany has almost got negative growth, china a big slowdown too.

Forgot to mention good factual post rcheshire

50% drops? Your dreaming, it won't happen and some people have been saying this every year.

The SE saw 60% falls in the the early 90s.
Nominal prices saw a 70% fall for some places. I know, a person I sat next when I worked in the Thames valley was forced into a distressed sale of his 3 bed house for 35k in 1993. He paid 80k for it in 88.

Prices in the North fell to around 2 times average wages (1 wage, not 2).
Some places saw housing fall to a lot less than 1 times.

What makes you think this time is different, other than the leverage rates are much, much higher?

And don't 'the government will not let it happen' Governments are at the whim of markets - just like in the early 90s. Look what's happening in Russia today.

50% fall dont happen every year but there are housing/credit cycles you need to be aware of esp. if you borrow large (more than 4 times wage) sums.

Twoopsie you really need a better knowledge of the markets and economy if you are ever to run your own business in design Esp if you are at the level where you are negotiating with and turning down large corporate jobs!

What makes me think its different? Well interest rates are the lowest they have ever been in 300 years of boe and they have and will just print money endlessly to keep property afloat. Also the first time in 300 years this has been done.

Oh dear

Twoopsie it's happened before and I saw the effects on people around me as the interest rates crept up to save sterling from fading into oblivion. The markets shorted the pound to such a degree that interest rate shot up to double digits and more.One guy I knew had a thriving building business one minute and the next few months saw him with broken marriage bankrupt and his house repossessed. I took care of his Alsatian dog as he became homeless. Around Basildon town center that year at Christmas I saw somebody I knew pushing a shopping trolley and looking to sleep in the multi storey car park, they too had their life destroyed . In both cases they were the types that thought it could not happen, but it did and there are people still out there that never recovered from that crash.
At present people are much more indebted than they were then, and remember wages did keep pace for those still with a job.

Today the bank stress results give you a good idea of where we are as they only stressed them against very modest rates. so the situation is still precarious

Roneik you seem quite clued up on this. I thought I read a few months ago that they would be stress tested at 7% but it looks like it was only 4?????

But it hasn't happened before, they have never printed money before or kept ir so low

If people are prudent they'll be fine. We've managed to knock £100,000 off our mortgage over the last five years because interest rates have been so incredibly low.

There are so many scare stories circulating - seers of doom haven't seen the scenario they've been expecting imminently, yet - that people have had such a long time to try and get their financial affairs in order I just don't see the huge topple Ron and noddy etc are saying there will be. Not any time soon, anyway.

MMR is using 7% for mortgagees.

The BoE stress test is laughable. They need to feed in the early 90s figures and see what will happen.

Markets can turn very quickly. See Greece, Russia etc.

I think QE will end badly.

Lets meet back here next xmas and see! A big topple is not really what its about imho but I do see a correction imminent.

Bowlers stats show that most people haven't overpaid while rates have been low though rather they have lived off that and now couldn't do without it.

Twoopsie The debt mountain has to come down in order for us to move on from this phoney economy phase. The overstretched will be left to their own devises. The background white noise from the government already shows tell tale signs of letting the housing market crash. What Osbourne is trying to avoid with all the sweeteners, is it crashing before the election. More business would be generated for the banks in mortgages than now with reduced (drastically) house prices

Noddyholder, I know I may sound cold hearted when I post , but I am not. I just see things in a different perspective to those that think the government will always be implementing policies that cater for saving them from themselves.
Maybe I am wrong , but I have a good track record for seeing through the mist and wonky mirrors

I don't think you sound cold hearted at all. I work with a lot of people in property and finance and if you could hear them the last 6 months you would hear cold hearted but also realistic and with 30 plus years experience so I tend to heed them

I agree noddy, let's resurrect the thread christmas 2015 and see what has happened. I've got a thread saved from July which features Ron, I am interested to see who is right, he hasn't been up to now. What's your timescale Ron? I want a prediction. Anyone can say there'll be a crash at some stage - the probability is that there will be but maybe not for 10, 20 years. Put a date on it.

Money Weeks 'End of Britain' makes gloomy reading. If you believe it, it would be hard to be optimistic. As does Thom Hartmanns (he's American I think) book predicting 'the crash' to happen in 2016, April i think he says.

Personally, i don't think interest rates will rise in the next couple of years; I don't think the election outcome will make much difference to anything; the new lending criteria means people should only have borrowed well within their means; anyone borrowing outside of their means before the new lending rules will have experienced a recession and should have been trying to get themselves into a position where their debt is reduced so they can withstand another recession which they have had first hand experience of.

There might be an outside reason for a crash such as China, but outside reasons have always been an issue and unpredictable.

Interesting discussion. Which I think can be had without the housepricecrash drama.