The private school market is shifting. Things like VAT and the extra NI contributions will be speeding that up.
We will see fewer private schools and they will be for the v rich.
Parents are stretched with fees. Schools are stretched with massive costs of the full VAT (most haven’t passed full amount on) and Nat ins and possibly pension costs. Many schools are down in applications and numbers. That means they have less income and what they can offer diminishes. Some reach a point where it’s not viable and close or have to merge into a more successful group or school.
Some schools remain hugely popular and successful. Through acquisitions of other schools, owning schools abroad etc, they can weather the storm of the increased costs. What they offer gets further removed from what other places can offer. They survive and get a bit bigger. But they are increasingly expensive and fewer can afford them.
In London and the south east there are still enough wealthy people to fund and fill expensive schools. In other areas less so. All areas will see schools close, but proportionately to the existing number it will hit London and south east less hard.
People who will be hit hard might well be families who went private due to SEN - sometimes to smaller and not quite so expensive schools. These are likely to be the ones that close. And many of those kids would struggle to get places at the highly competitive ones and parents would struggle with the fees. Greater inequality.
It’s hard to see where a ‘no frills’ private education can fit in…and cover its costs. Many smaller schools are already pretty no-frills and can’t cover their costs. It costs more per head in small schools and such schools need to equal it better state provision in terms of staff numbers etc…but sometimes can’t.
It’s no a win situation for very many really. Kids in state schools have faced a steadily declining provision due to real terms spending cuts over many years. There is a huge recruitment and retention crisis. It also hits private schools that can’t offer better conditions and wages. Some private schools will be pushed out of the market. Some of those kids will go into other privates but many into state schools.
The winners are the bigger, successful schools and the smaller number of parents who can afford them …an increasingly exclusive group. Again a society with growing inequalities.
Few outside private education will have much sympathy for those who were in private and find VAT or other price rise factors push them out, or for those whose schools close down in the next few years. When their own kids have been in state all the way through, it’s hard to expect much sympathy from those who never had access to privilege even for a short time, no matter if parents felt it was needed for SEN or whatever reason.
We are becoming a more unequal society. Some who had previously just about afforded the luxury of a fee paying education will no longer be able to….in the same way fewer people will be home owners etc. As a society a few are getting richer but many are worse off.