Impact from VAT on private school fees

[HoneyB2025]

Do you know anyone who has moved their DS or DD out of independent school to state due to the new VAT on private school fees?

Yes I do. A girl who just finished her GCSEs at private this year - natural exit point - state sixth form.

I think a more important point is regarding people who were considering entering private, but will not do so due to VAT. Those people are hard/impossible to count, but it’s them who’ll make a longer term difference to bums on seats.

Agree - biggest impact will be those that don’t start, followed by those that transition at a natural point. I do know a handful who have left our school outside of normal transition points due to affordability (vat + higher than usual fee rises due to col + col in their own home), but my bigger concern for our school is how much smaller the intake has been over the last 2 years.

Yes - parents at my daughter's prep school.

No.
For most private school people it's made no difference.

Yes Year 9, year 11 to go Gramnar 6th form. About 4 not joined in Year 7, gone to Grammar.

Yes, I know one child who has moved to their closest state school to start year 7. It’s got a repute being an excellent school.

They’d always hoped to do this but there was no guarantee that she’d get a place. As she did it’s turned out to be very well timed.

Really? You must know (or assume this is the case) as we go to a SW London popular school and it’s causing lots of worries…..

Not in my town , oversubscribed, in fact. Lots of rich Indian families moved here.

I gave notice today.

Parents of one of ds friends pulling younger dc out after gcse this summer.
one of dd friends saying she leaving after gcse.
DD school worried on 2 fronts, as mentioned those who now wont even start and the declining numbers predicted in the next 8 years due to falling birth rate.

We are moving DS from private after GCSEs to state sixth form. Never our intention but his schools fees were already very high and the VAT increase next term and then the likelihood of more increases the following two Septembers means we just don’t think it’s worth the money. We will pay for tutors for two subjects which will be about half a terms fees a year.

We'll move ours at the next natural exit point so after GCSEs for the older 2 and after year 6 for the youngest child. The money we had saved to cover up to 6th form won't cover all the way through now. We'll use the rest of the money on general enrichment /travel /tutors etc.

We may move DD after GCSE, she also mentioned she might like to go to a 6th form college.
now its not just vat, NI and minimum wage increases means fee’s could well go up another 6-7% next year

ime there is always a lot of movement from private to state after GCSEs to try to negate any perceived advantage that privately educated kids might have had. For some universities state sixth form is an advantage.

I think the falling birth rate along with the generally increasing costs of running schools (utilities, pensions, NI etc) is more of a concern for independent schools than just the additional of VAT

@HoneyB2025 , are you on the Facebook group education not taxation, it's very active with 24k members.

Two girls from DD's year group (London/girls/year 9) where parents specifically mentioned VAT as the reason for leaving.

But one girl also joined from state this year.

I do not know about other year groups, or whether year 7 numbers fell this year.

It has certainly made us reassess our decision. While previous plan was to remain with the school all the way to year 13, now we will take another look at the end of year 11 and will probably move if we find place in a good state school.

No but DS is GCSE year so its pretty unlikely and there is no 6th form anyway
I do know a few families who have decided against going Private when they had intended to though

To the best of my knowledge, there isn't anyone leaving the rural prep where I teach at Christmas. But it may be that we just haven't been told yet. And of course some may leave at the end of the school year.

But my grandma told me that my cousin's child has 10 leaving from his year alone at Christmas from a city prep school. Not sure a 9 year old and a 94 year old are necessarily reliable narrators on that though!

Yes quite a lot. Intake is 20% down in my daughters Yr 7. About 100 started the term down from 120 last year and at least 5 longstanding pupils that came through the prep have left to take up late State offers [which means their parents are probably liable for the Spring term fees as well]. All moving to highly selective schools so you could take the view that they're taking the place of less able pupils who have come through the state primary system.

Yr9 intake also down but not as considerably and still transfers in from parents who have presumably saved to put them into private for GCSE's. 6th Form, no intel as to how that's going as yet.

So you are a parent who has chose indy school?

Yes, 10% from Dds year group

I was worried that our area (where it's already quite tricky to get a state school place) might be made worse but actually I can't see it really happening. The private schools are very selective and have 100s of children sitting the exams that don't manage to get a place. Unless they end up suffering such an incredible swing in people putting their children forward that they have fewer children sitting their entrance exams than they have places then they'll still be taking the same number of children out the state system.

Appreciate this varies by location but I don't think it'll make any difference round here.

ETA - the schools have also been making incredible inflation busting increases to fees every year that I have been looking (about 10 years) so they are clearly able to charge more or less what they like.

I would like to move my child to private school and I can afford to do it, even with the VAT increase. However, I can't because he has been so broken by his experience at state school that he is no longer well enough to attend school at all. I'm having to home school him while he recovers.

Honestly, I would pay the VAT with a glad heart if my kid was only still well enough to go to a school.

Current data from ISC says 8000 now withdrawn across UK this term/start of Jan and 4% fewer stated Yr 7 in Sept than previous years.
Policy was drawn up predicting no more than 3000 leaving.

No obvious impact yet at DS's school. Intake numbers were apparently the highest yet in September, with the Reception class having to be split in two and an additional teacher hired to deal with the extra demand. The head has sent a few communications since the start of the year which suggest similar is happening at other entry points e.g. Y7 (it's a 3-18 school).