Impact from VAT on private school fees

[HoneyB2025]

Do you know anyone who has moved their DS or DD out of independent school to state due to the new VAT on private school fees?

State school admissions are also falling though (with the population) - do you know what the % drop overall is for year 7? You'd need to look at the difference to see what difference the VAT policy made. I am actually surprised it's as low at 4% though.

Secondary is still generally in bulge years until 2029
They are expecting up to 10% for Yr 7 entry Sept 25 once the policy is in place. Because of timing of election parents were committed to Sept 24 starts or lose 1 term's fees

ok that makes more sense then - I thought 4% seemed very low. I'll see if I can find out what the % uplift in year 7 is across the population, my understanding was it was starting to reduce but I may well be wrong.

As someone with a child in year 5 in an area with not enough school places I am very invested in population change in this demographic!

The impact will vary across the country and impact rural areas disproportionately

Agree. I don’t know of anyone that has pulled out or is planning to up the school. But I have my youngest in the nursery class and the numbers are significantly down with only two thirds of spaces filled.

Yes, I work in a prep school, our reception class would normally be 3 classes of 15, this year we have 2 classes of 10. We've lost children from other year groups too, last year we had 2 year one classes, this year we only need 1.

My ds is in a private senior school, most kids in year 11 are leaving after GCSES. I don't know how viable the 6th form is going to be next year.

And sadly that's exactly what Labour want, this policy is designed to get rid of indy schools via the back door

I didn't think it was yet dropping at year 7

The demographic dip is year 4/5 and below, isn't it?

(one of the main reasons why there's holes in the underpinning analyses - the surplus places aren't evenly distributed by age, let alone location)

I don't know any leavers, but do know 3 families (total 5 DC) who will not now be joining the private sector (at all for 3 of the DC, still maybe but older for the other 2)

The ONS recently updated their national pupil projections - they revised upwards based largely on recent migration patterns and assumptions around the number of women of childbearing age who are part of that demographic.

The primary population peaked in 2019 and has been gradually declining since then. For secondary the peak is now projected to be 2026 and 2027 which I suspect is cold comfort to you! I sympathise as my eldest was part of the 2023/24 secondary cohort which was projected to be the previous peak - my youngest is currently Y4...

ONS notes that there is considerable uncertainty because of migration numbers and patterns that may affect the birth rate, and fertility assumptions for this cohort make it harder to model.

Yes that's not great for me! We are in a real pickle about secondary school places, no idea what we'll end up doing. Looks from a quick google like London peaked earlier though and is already seeing lower intake at year 7 (and we're edge of London) so we may be OK.

I am not from England and am still completely baffled by a system that can just say oh yes all the schools are full so you don't get a place. In Scotland I would have been guaranteed a place at my catchment school.

We're outer London too (Kingston) and there was a significant drop in application numbers/increase in catchment sizes for this year's Y7 compared to DS's intake the year before.

Overall our secondary numbers are pretty stable to the end of the decade on the projections, so will be interesting to see if last year was a blip or continued...

That's where we are! I'm in a bit of a black hole for admissions - just hoping Teddington remains an option or I am a bit screwed.

Hello neighbour! We're on the Surbiton side though so different choices and a bit less grim for places. I know KT1/KT2 and that side is grim and the new secondary at Kingsmeadow seems to be taking forever.

Everything crossed for you (and overall that pressure on places continues to drop...)

Thank you!

For those that don't start, at least they don't have the upset of having to move school. For those that move at a natural transition point, they are not likely to be alone as many children change schools at these points. I feel more concern for the DC who have to be taken out outside of normal transition points due to affordability.Thankfully it looks like this will be a minority of cases.

Our DC are Year 11 and will be moving after GCSEs this coming summer. Anecdotal but a lot of their cohort are talking about moving too. Around us there has long been a real shortage of school places as DC are within the "peak" of the bulge years and the decent sixth form provisions in our area are well-known for being very sought-after. I'm genuinely a bit worried that DC could end up with no sixth form places!

The issue with nonstarters and timed leavers is that some schools will become unviable, resulting in a whole school of children that have their education disrupted and local schools having to absorb a large influx. In our situation we can afford vat and have no intention of leaving, but are very concerned about the viability of our small junior school. We don’t have another good private option within reasonable commuting distance (for junior school anyways), so would need to go back to the state school that failed my send child.

I hope your school doesn’t close.

Our prep school of 150 about 7 have left for state schools so far..

I suspect the school will close in the next 24 months..

Is this to leave at Easter?

Where will your child/children go?

Nicelynicelyjohnson - most schools have had to waive the notice period because it's a breach of t and c to put the fees up without sufficient notice for parents to move. So it could be January.

This is basically what happened to a number of kids in our town this year, some had to go back to the private system (even though their parents were struggling), some had to travel 15 miles to go to a further education college (which was never what they had wanted).

Easter or July. I’ve absolutely no idea where they will go. Honestly.

There are 3 spaces at the local high school. It’s just had a stabbing and is in special measures or whatever it’s called now, so I’m not v keen. They do have a drug sniffer dog on site so I suppose that’s useful. School day they will inform LA so I guess I’ll liaise with them when the time gets a bit closer. DC been at the school 10yrs (since they were 3) so it’s all new to us.

Have any of these schools considered cutting their costs? Given all the above inflation fee increases over the last decade, you'd think there was some room there.