How much will the credit crunch affect state school admissions this year?

[EldonAve]

Just wondering if we are less likely to get into our nearest state school in London

Well I know people moving their dc out of private school but not in London.

I am more thinking of reception - so kids who haven't started yet

13 in ds's reception class, 2 classes in year. Other private school has 20 in each class so not sure if a reduction or lack of popularity for ds's school.

thanks

For what it's worth, the school where our DS is attending nursery has received a record number of enquiries about their reception class. We live close to the City, and many parents who would have opted for private schools are now looking at State ones.

Time will tell, but it was interesting to hear about it as early as last September. The Monday after the Lehmann Brothers debacle our local school was inundated...

TBH even if you are planning on sending your DC to a private school you would still apply to a state school just in case you didnt get into the private school.

So, there shouldnt be any difference in the number of people applying to state schools as they would apply regardless! IYSWIM.

Not necessarily. I didn't apply to any state schools despite much badgering by the local council. Then again the dc were both at nursery and passage into reception was pretty much guaranteed.

Round our way (SW London) there has always been a big drop out rate after reception offers are made. This has tended to happen when people who always intended to go private 'let go' of the places they have been offered at state schools. So people who were way down on the waiting list for 'desirable' schools tended to get a place by September. I suspect this year that there will be less movement - so if you are on a waiting list you will be less likely to get a place.

I also wonder if there will be people intending to go private (and with a place) who will hold onto their state primary places just in case they get into financial difficulties between March and September.

It will be interesting to see what happens between March (when our offers come out) and September...

We are in London and in the unfortunate position of having to take our dc out of their current school, although not until the end of this academic year (school has been very supportive in the meantime).
I've made enquiries at three local state schools and spoke to the LEA and it seems that we are not the only ones. My dc are beyond reception, but I would imagine that there will be more families applying to good primaries for reception places, even if just to secure a place in case things get worse for them between now and September.

Really don't know. The main issue with the school our DSs attend is that a lot of the places in Nursery/Reception are taken up by siblings (we're a right lot of breeders round here) and so if your child is a FB then it's much harder. I don't know that many people locally who educate their children privately at primary - secondary is a different matter.

NewTeacher - our local private schools have already offered their places and deposits have been paid

slummymomma - not sure how much movement there will be Mar - Sept as canceling a private school place after Easter usually means paying an additional term's fees

Most private schools will be reviewing any fee increases for the Autumn at the moment , so there could yet be resulting drop out at Easter.

If you are paying school fees out of income you're asking for trouble, most school fees are planned well ahead and many by grandparents, who's investments and interest rates have been affected.
I'd imagine the credit crunch will cause a massive amount of people to choose state over private and the state will have to accommodate them one way or another.

I can see us getting to the point where in some areas class sizes will have to go over 30 in ks1 due to pressure on the state system. Smaller private schools will fold, which will save the day for the larger ones as they will scoop up some pupils from there but then others, who probably would have stayed private if their school had continued to exist, will jump to the state sector given they've got to move anyway.

I absolutely think there will be lots of middle class parents who have been thinking until recently they'd go private who will now be looking to the state sector. Even this year, and even though most have already coughed up a grand or so to secure a place at a prep school.

If I could get my son into a really outstanding primary which is of course free, I'd actually forgo the deposit we've paid to secure the pre-prep place for sure. I'd be saving tens of thousands. And I'd be much more likely to accept that state school place now than I would have been a year or two ago. Anyway this isn't going to happen purely because I don't have the right religious credentials to get him into the very good state primary. But that's another (well-worn) thread...

Wouldn't make a difference to me. What I'd save in school fees I'd spend on childcare to cover the fact that our local state schools don't offer much in the way of extended day care.

EldonAve - In my area you find out if you have been accepted in state school in Jan. So yes I would be applying to state school even though my child will go private. As soon as her private school place is secure I would give up my state school place.

Having said that last year my neighbour applied in our borough and held onto a place and then applied to another borough. Because we find out earlier she kept hold of the place until she got the place she really wanted in another borough (which was in July as on waiting list!)

As someone has already said private school fees should not be coming out of your monthly salary but should be a pot that is getting bigger each year to cover these eventualities like job losses etc.

As for KS1 classes getting bigger this wont happen because its illegal class sizes cannot be greater than 30 at KS1. If there were too many kids for the school the borough moves these kids to schools where there are places even if it means they are mile from your home. This happened last year in my borough where people were offered schools in another town about 6 miles away.

But newteacher how many places are there available in the system in ks1 classes. My point is that despite the legal restriction it might have to go over 30 as there wouldn't be enough slack in the system to take on say 10% of private school pupils switching to state in some areas.

MNNN - I appreciate what you are saying and agree as well. Something needs to be done as in a bigger intake in the local schools but this is not always possible because the school just isnt big enough to facilitate this.

Like I said before in my borough we have few schools and the council keep allowing new estates to be built not thinking about the impact it has on local resources. The doctors surgeries are full to bursting as are the dentists and the school system is a joke.

I have been living in my house for 5 years I bought it as the local school was spitting distance from my front door. What happens I dont get my local school I get one 3 miles away! People move into the area and get their older kids into the school so when it comes to Reception places us first timers dont stand a chance as the siblings take all the places.

Something needs to be done but trust me I spent all of last year getting myself in local and national newspapers, harrassing the council and councillors but to no avail.

What happens is the less desirable schools are given the option of bigger intakes BUT as a parent I did not want my child going to that particular school so have had to make future sacrifices to fund my children going to private school. There are many like me!

Well, we received a letter today from the private school we have put DD's name down for, offering her a place. 2 years ago I'd have been thrilled to get that letter, but now it's unthinkable that we could send her.

We were always going to try for state school as a first option though - the private school was there as back up in case DD doesn't get into the state school we want her to. Of course, the likelihood now is that she won't get into first choice state school because she is not in priority catchment, and the catchment area is very well to do so they will be soaking up all of the local private school drop outs.

We now cannot afford to send her privately, so she will most likely end up in our third choice school.

Sycamore, write back saying you'd be deighted, what offers to they currently have on the fee's ? I've negotiated 3 for 2 on several schools to give myself options in a year or so.

Do you know what, I did feel like saying how amazing, what provision do they have to scholarship and how might we apply for DD.

TBH our lifestyle has changed so much in last two years, I wouldn't even want to commit to half price fees. DH was made redundant, but then we made the decision for him to be a SAHD at least until DS (17 months) starts nursery, so I'm partially crunched, but partially self-crunched, if that makes sense.

My sensible hat says put away anything we can now for when DC's are 11 by which point I just feel private school would be the only option given the area we are in....

State schools with a reasonably high percentage of free school meals will not be affected I would have thought. It will be a small number of "highly regarded" oversubscribed schools in areas of middle class, high cost (tho' will THAT change) housing may find they become even MORE oversubscribed and their radius of admission shrink.

Examples closeish to me would be Tetherdown (primary) and Fortismere (secondary) There may be an increase in the number of professional families at Highgate Wood, Robert Peston went there by the way.

Selective state schools will have even more absurd levels of competition

Also private school fees will not go up for a bit!

Thats what I think anyway...

I agree it will be reception this year that could be affected, and there could be a knock on effect in some areas. T

he year ds1 started school (2007) there were 90 fewer places than there needed to be, so 3 primaries had to take on an extra class - each housed in portacabins.

I don't personally know of anyone pulling their dcs out of our (private) school but I guess it may take time to filter through. I think for many parents it would be a last resort. But I do think people looking to send a dc to a private school from this September onwards may rethink.

Not sure about fees not going up - though it would be lovely if they didn't - I'd imagine staff are the biggest cost, though I guess some of the more ambitious expansions (new swimming pools, theatres etc) may be shelved.

I suspect people will hold off until the state school offers come out
We are on a reserve list for a private school but nothing has changed since before Xmas

I think that private schools putting fees up would be seen as quite insensitive by the parents. Not saying they won't in all cases but I think they'd be unwise to.