Private School Concerns

[RichSherl]

So I was thinking...

Me, my wife and most of our friends went to private schools growing up. We're not posh or wealthy, we just came from middle-class families that never went on holiday and lived thriftily in order to afford the school fees. The city we grew up (and still live in) also had notoriously bad school provisions. We benefited from it but we're certainly not public school kids, if you know what I mean.

Anyway, a thought struck me today - none of our wider group of friends are sending their kids to private school because they simply cannot afford it. There's also a minor concern about positive discrimination later in life but the main issue is cost.

The people we do know of that send their kids to independents are either very well paid solicitors/doctors/accountants/civil servants(!) or their grandparents are footing a sizable chunk of the bill. The fees (especially for multiple children) are now out of reach of middle class people, especially those with eye-watering mortgage bills and now energy bills etc etc.

Apparently there are ~1,300 independent schools left in the country and every month a handful close or merge while no new ones are opening.

This got me thinking, forgetting all the politics, I can see a time in the not too distant future when the last few middle-classes that send their kids stop, pricing out most of the remaining parents with necessary fees rises and, ultimately, there being very few independents left. Needless to say, a sudden VAT on school fees could rush this through very quickly.

Thoughts?

Whereabouts in the country are you? I know the independent that DS is at is very popular and doing fine in terms of intake, but we are in the North so fees are around £15k per year.

The only people who I know who went to private school’s parents were doctor, civil servants or who DF worked in ME. I don’t think much has changed.

I personally can't see this happening. I am a grammar educated child from a deprived/poverty background. I started my career in the Big 4 and majority were privately educated and they will all continue to privately educate.

I personally could afford it but we are staunchly against the system. My DH works in education and there is still a HUGE push for private schools especially from immigrants of Asian background. They will move to the area of the school / spend thousands on private tuition and live on pennies for their children to go to the schools. I can't see that changing too much.

My friend is an accountant for a private school company and they laid off loads of staff during covid because of the effects of that - lots of discounts needing to be given etc. However, they are still reporting strong profits, with no plans to close any schools.

This is the ISC census report on the number of pupils in schools. THe majority of independent schools are members of ISC but not all so it will be fairly accurate but not complete www.isc.co.uk/media/8421/isc_census_2022_final-v2.pdf It shows that 2022 had the highest ever number of independently educated pupils in the uk with an increase of 2% in the past year though this was after a small covid dip (see page 8).

I am not sure your anecdotal experience reflects the national picture.

Bristol. The fees are ~£16k per year but they've gone up £1k since last year and will go up more thanks to the energy price increases (lots of old buildings etc).

As others have said, it's all just my anecdotal experience but I wouldn't be overly surprised if the number of independent schools rapidly shrinks over the next 20-30 years.

I wouldn’t be too worried. Judging by the holidays and cars around us at school a few thousand a year price rise won’t cause many parents to pull their children out.

There is a private school near us and alot of middle class parents send children to this school. These parents network their way in through outside sports clubs and then offered bursaries and scholarships etc.

It is very much a case of who you know....

Not everyone is in receipt of a bursary, however they certainly exist. There are lots of wealthy Brits and foreigners - As long as University admissions / job prospects remain as they are, private schools are here to stay. It is expensive, however a lot of people have a lot of money.

The thing is, in the past, the middle classes were a relatively small proportion of the population. Now nearly everyone is middle class to some extent.

I'm not worried about the private schools all closing. There's a lot of demand - the private schools near me are all expanding.

The prospect of VAT going on private schools gets raised every so often but I'll be surprised if it actually happens. VAT is meant to be on luxury items and education (even if it is paid for) is not a luxury.

You are right. It's just part of the trend of the growing disparity between the rich and everyone else. Well said, thanks for posting.

I can't live in the only area of the south east that would require another 4 or 5 state primaries to be built should the private ones close? There's no spare capacity at all and the existing state schools have already expanded as much as they realistically can.

I really can't see them all closing unless there's a significant drop in population (which may start to happen once the 2012 baby boom reaches secondary I suppose). And it takes forever to build new state schools now local authorities can't build them directly.

I suppose we might start to see a bit more variation in fees if demand drops.

Same here
When DS joined in Y7 they added an extra class as demand was so great and they didn’t want to increase class sizes.

I attended private school and am now managing to send my children to the same school.
Having spoken to my mum we worked out that, as a percentage of our incomes the fees are very similar. She was a teacher, so am I, the cost of sending me and my sister to school used up about 80% of her yearly income. Comparably, it uses up about 80% of my yearly income. We pay about £13,500 a year per child. I don’t think schools have suddenly become much less affordable. People just use their income for other priorities.
The parents of school friends were all professional people or running their own business. We were one of the least well off families to my memory. My Dds school had 36 applications for 20 places this time around. They look like they’re doing ok.

There are plenty of people who have enough money for private schools. Only judging by the number of threads on here by parents wanting to know the pros and cons of various private schools, there is still lots of demand for them.

Recently a private school near has closed after over 100 years. (In a city)

Over the past 6 years another 2 have also closed locally. (In town outside the city)

We still have plenty of independent schools locally with varying fees (some day/ some boarding and some mixed). They also differ in age group and finish year 9, 11 and 13.

FB has been filled recent,y with invites from these schools to the other schools parents for a visit.

So I'm assuming these parents will still pay the fees if they find a suitable school.

But it does question as you raised about the numbers within areas who are able to afford them.

Reading your OP I knew you were bristol based. Many of the private schools here years ago weren’t that expensive in that maybe £1k a term and now they are about 6k a term!

we are in Bristol and I don’t know anyone who sends their kids to private schools, the state ones are getting better finally!

Demand still exceeds supply in our area (outer NW London).

Until state schools improve private schools will exist. The private/ public schools close to us sll have long waiting lists.

There are also special requirements not provided for consistently/well/at all in the state sector: boarding, SEN, classical music, performing arts and dance, specialist sport. A private school could be an alternative to moving.

It is good for any system to have an alternative to 'one size fits all'. My friend lives in another country where the vast majority of children attend the local primary, but not 100%. When her DC was badly bullied, she was very grateful to have an alternative.

The private secondary day schools near us are now touching £22-24k before you even start adding extras and coaches and lunches etc. I can't see how ordinary middle class people won't be priced out of this in the next few years. What sort of income do you need to have to put more than 1 child through private school with fees at this level. I can see them hitting £30k per child per year in the next 5-7 years and salaries aren't keeping up with that.

There's a very big difference between that level of fees and the £15k per year around much of the country so yes, there will become a tipping point where it's simply not possible for families who would otherwise have chosen private education.

@lop32 I don't think that's true. The demand for the top private schools in the area exceeds supply but 3 non top tier private schools have gone co-ed in the last year and it's generally pretty easy to get occasional places in anywhere that isn't a big name.

It’s the same around here but people make sacrifices. It also depends who falls under middle class.

I speak only for our local area. Applications currently comfortable exceed places at 11 and 13 plus. The odd place comes up across the year groups if people are moving.

In terms of secondary, I can't think of any that have gone co-ed recently either in our area. One prep school did about 10 years ago.

That's not to say that all private schools are in this position. Our local ones are fortunate in that they're located around a fairly high income demographic.

There is always going to be a need for private schools, mine are due to attend from Year 9 funded by the MOD, parents of diplomats and off shore workers etc… The majority of the children at my daughters nursery go on to the local prep. There will still be wealthy people using private schools, even if average middle class earners aren’t.