Private School Concerns

[RichSherl]

So I was thinking...

Me, my wife and most of our friends went to private schools growing up. We're not posh or wealthy, we just came from middle-class families that never went on holiday and lived thriftily in order to afford the school fees. The city we grew up (and still live in) also had notoriously bad school provisions. We benefited from it but we're certainly not public school kids, if you know what I mean.

Anyway, a thought struck me today - none of our wider group of friends are sending their kids to private school because they simply cannot afford it. There's also a minor concern about positive discrimination later in life but the main issue is cost.

The people we do know of that send their kids to independents are either very well paid solicitors/doctors/accountants/civil servants(!) or their grandparents are footing a sizable chunk of the bill. The fees (especially for multiple children) are now out of reach of middle class people, especially those with eye-watering mortgage bills and now energy bills etc etc.

Apparently there are ~1,300 independent schools left in the country and every month a handful close or merge while no new ones are opening.

This got me thinking, forgetting all the politics, I can see a time in the not too distant future when the last few middle-classes that send their kids stop, pricing out most of the remaining parents with necessary fees rises and, ultimately, there being very few independents left. Needless to say, a sudden VAT on school fees could rush this through very quickly.

Thoughts?

It varies due to geographical location. The ones round here are massively oversubscribed and flourishing.

I think part of the issue is parents are now demanding more for the fees. Some small private schools near here have closed as they just weren't offering good value for money. We also have very good state schools here so unless private is significantly better its very hard to justify the cost.

Remember only 7% of the population privately educate.

And with the gap between rich and poor growing, that 7% is probably wealthier now than a decade or two ago.

It’s just that your mates aren’t in the 7%.

I think secondaries will suffer less than primaries. There are a lot of people who can’t afford to send their kids private all the way, but still want the benefit of classmates from posh families and good extra curricular options. So they send their kids to a good state primary and save their cash for private secondary school, which is when it will have the most impact.

Take me as an example. Within 3.5 miles of my house there are 16 primary schools (most of which are Good) but only 3 secondary schools (all of which are merely Satisfactory). Apparently this trend is common right across the country - there are many more good state primary options.

There will always be demand from people convinced that paying is always better. There are regular posts on here about not being able to use the local comprehensive because their child would be "eaten alive". I wouldn't say that my kids weee particularly tough but they've never "eaten" or "been eaten".

Also people in areas with poor state schools. It says a lot that 13 years of fees would be less than moving house.

The reduction of SN schools. My kids went to a primary in London with an autism unit and I remember talking to someone with a child who received support from there and their child was assigned a special school that took 1.5 hours each way. This was like 15 years ago and is probably worse now.

Also people in areas with poor state schools. It says a lot that 13 years of fees would be less than moving house.
I don’t want to move house. I like my house. Also my elderly parents live nearby and they need support, I have to call in most days, which would be inconvenient if I moved further away. It’s convenient for DH’s job too. But equally I don’t want to send my DC to the local state secondary which is terrible. So what option do I have other than private school?

If my parents have died by the time DS goes to secondary we will be moving into the catchment of a better school. Which is a very small area because that’s what everyone is trying to do! But if they’re still alive we’ll have to explore other ways to get him into a good school, probably remortgaging and trying to get bursaries for private schools.

@lop32 if you are in NW London 3 did this year. John Lyon st Margaret’s and St Columbas. Also there will always be more applicants than places for 11+ and 13+ but that doesn’t mean in reality the schools are all completely full come September. You can almost always get places anywhere other than the top ones.

Yes, I'm talking about the more selective schools.

I agree with the OP. I’m a teacher at a small prep school which has recently gone co Ed. In this area (outside london but not far out) there are lots of schools doing this, and most places are not full. Long term I think some of the smaller preps will close. But maybe also the senior schools - hardly any round here are particularly selective now; I can’t remember the last time we had a child fail an entrance exam for an independent school. A few years ago some were known for being very selective, now they’ll take most if not all kids who apply. I can only assume they are not full either and are desperate for bums on seats!

By "positive discrimination " do you mean "fair access"?

I think there will come a time when the normal middle class parents will have to choose between private school or lifestyle... Due to cost of living most will be working just to cover school fees.. My affluent sil could afford private school fees, they're very comfortable but not mega wealthy... Instead they are sending the dc to the local state but feel their kids benefit much for from the 3 holidays a year they go on plus their ski trip, center parcs, camping weekends, horse riding lessons, swimming, numerous activities... They can afford all this as they chose not to pay for school fees, their dc are thriving....

@Reinventingat40 is the state school that your SIL has sent her kids to - Good or Excellent?

I also guessed Bristol.

state schools in Bristol have improved rapidly since the 2008 crash / recession precisely because well educated / aspirational families stopped sending their kids private at all costs. Poverty of aspiration is the most difficult kind to escape. We improve our own communities by investing in / believing in our local schools.

I have multiple friends who went private themselves and now send their kids state (with some defecting to the cities Christian option!); all are extremely happy with their choice to do so

i also know many who are out the other side and frankly gutted that they went private; no system is without its downsides.

Go into each with your eyes wide open as to the possible pitfalls, mitigate them as far as possible

I teach in a prep school. I’m state educated and this is a whole new world to me!

i can only truly think of a couple of children / families in my year group that I would call more “middle class” than “upper / upper middle” - and both have grandparents paying or certainly significantly contributing because they came round with the parents to tour and parents have stated this is where the fees are coming from. Their general lives that we know of also indicate this.

The bulk are wealthy and some are extremely wealthy. We do have a handful of chauffeurs who do the drop off, I know some nannies and house keepers better than the parents. The birthday parties are often extravagant and when I return next week I’ll be hearing all about the “little breaks” to Dubai and so forth. Got to love Show and Tell with pictures of the kids on First Class plane seats.

I know a lot of the professions - we have LOTs of doctors / consultants / surgeons, several ex army families and multiple pilot parents. Plus lots of private business owners doing all sorts of things. Several in finance. The latter two were the ones fighting hardest for lock down places.

I don’t think they’re going to disappear but I think the private school market has changed. In my area, parents often don’t sign the dotted line until the summer term prior to starting because to be honest the preps don’t fill like they used to. A quick bit of undercover research with our competitors actually put most schools in the same position as ours : some year groups technically full but they would squeeze you in especially if it was a family with siblings, some hear groups not full at all, space for last minute sign ups but all generally chugging along fine but not as bursting and rich as they once were. Competition around here is stiff between schools because all the schools are fighting for business. None of the schools are bad. They’re all different, but I would definitely say less can afford it and if you then combine it with an area like mine where the state schools have a very good reputation….
We had a bit of an exodus last year after the covid saga where a couple of unhappy families didn’t like how we did things and managed to persuade their friends to leave as well…..but we’ve picked up and, considering how many we’ve gained from other local preps, it’s clear that the market for private education is a real mixed bag of people:
Those who will always be well off enough so just do it with no thought.
Those who absolutely would never send their PFB to a state school.
Those who recognise the benefits and want their child to have the sometimes unique chances and opportunities the private sector brings.
Those who just want the benefit of a small class and the increased attention for their child.
Those who think they can buy intelligence and grades.
Paremts who believe that by paying, they’ll get exactly what they want when they want and can make every demand they please and have it met.
People who see school as a social status, choose the most fashionable school of the moment and jump on the bandwagon.
Those who just honestly believe their child will have the best chance of achieving what they can at a private school and do everything they can to get their child there.
Plus some more!

Will just state that this isn’t a criticism. The bulk of my parents this year are lovely people and the reason they’ve chosen private isn’t my business but I know the majority are doing it because they just want their child to have a great start and this is how they believe they can.

I honestly don’t believe private schools are disappearing. I think the fate of smaller ones (less than 100 pupils) could be more in jeopardy these days because of running costs (the facilities needed to compete are costly to run) but on the whole there’s a still a big market out there who want them.

The future of boarding schools would be an interesting one because that’s significantly less common now than say 40 years ago….

That's an interesting analysis Bertie and accords with my experience too. Something I would add is that quite a few DC in private schools have SEND and/or what the state sector would call SEMH. Up to a third in my experience. The schools don't shout about it, but SEND support is so woeful in much of the state sector due to lack of resources that parents with cash vote with their feet.

You see comments on here sometimes that the more academic independent schools will manage out DC with SEND/SEMH, but while that may be true of some, there's also plenty of others quietly providing a service that is sadly not available reliably in the state sector. The competition for students is helping of course. Plus SEND/SEMH can co-exist with high ability.

Apparently there are ~1,300 independent schools left in the country and every month a handful close or merge while no new ones are opening

I live in a private school heavy area - I reckon 50% of the uniforms you see on a daily basis are independent and there are choices of about 5 prep schools from where we are that are walkable.

3 of these schools, whilst not new were opened in the 90s or early 00s. Other private schools I know (some a bit further out to want to take your reception age child to but certainly close enough to consider later on) whilst very old schools have massively expanded in the last generation or two. Quite a lot started life 100-200 years + a go as senior schools only and are now 3-18 schools and a lot were originally single sex and went co—ed sometime in the last 30 years (some very recently) so whilst they’re not new schools, they are certainly taking 100s more children compared to years gone by.

The ISC has just published its 2022 census. This showed that the number of pupils at private schools has actually risen over the last couple of years.

www.isc.co.uk/media/8421/isc_census_2022_final-v2.pdf

The largest growth in independent school pupils was in the South West. 17.6% of all independent school pupils were identified as having SEND.

There's also a thing about it in the Times.

I agree that it’s very few typically middle class parents who can afford private school now. I have one DC who goes to private and we are probably one of a few mc families in the year. Most are what I would call upper middle. They may think they are middle class but the holidays and houses are not.
We only moved from state to private due to SEN needs however we were considering it for senior due to the standard of the secondary schools in the area.

@Phineyj absolutely, private school SEN parent here, started out in state, both parents went to state schools, didn't 'believe' in private. I do believe in picking my kids up and not having them incredibly distressed at the start and end of the school day.

I am not sure without inheritance tax going up and income tax in general that private school intakes will suffer, no signs of it in Edinburgh so far.