Yes, you are right.
I think I was focusing a little more on the bigger range of impacts state school can have on aspiration, particularly for those from less affluent backgrounds who might not have the parental push to do well.
You can be at some state schools and most are going to uni and it is simply the norm. These tend to be schools in more affluent areas (obviously generalising…but generally true). In such a school, a reasonably bright student might be boosted int eras of attitude and aspiration. This is also where independent schools can add the most value….the average/slightly brighter than average student (of which by nature there are many) can be boosted and in many cases, the most squeezed out of them via the smaller classes, targeted uni application process and focus on exam results. It is this kind of student who can easily fall by the wayside in a more middling/weak school. If the majority aren’t aspirational or the school isn’t highly focused on best next steps for progression rather than their personal school data, such students can become disinterested and easily underperform….this can mean moving from average results to less than average, or from the possibility of above average to average. It can mean being offered subjects at GCSE or A Level which don’t keep the doors open to the next stage, but which the school offers because if it’s cohort or because they will get results which look good in their data, rather than opening doors of opportunity at the next stages of life.
Many children in many independents are not super bright. The average IQ is a bit above national average and reflects the higher performance of the parents, but the schools are not full of super bright kids. But they over-perform and that’s what parents pay for. Many know little Johnny is reasonably bright but nothing really special. They know that if he is in a class of people who don’t try very hard, he probably won’t try hard either, but if he is with a group who are really focussed, he will achieve his best or possibly a bit more.
I think it’s true that the super super bright usually do well in most places. Even with poor teaching and discontinuity they might well do well if they are self starters. However, home life difficulties can scupper even the super bright. The bright can also do well in most schools. The question though is how well they do. Perhaps in some schools they will get a set of 6s and 7s, whilst if at a different school it would be 8s and 9s. And then we could be talking about the difference of Cs at A Level compared to Bs and As (which can mean very different uni opportunities). But in a weak school, even the bright might do okay or might slip and do poorly.
I’m at an age now when my friends’ children are starting to go to uni. My friends are from a variety of backgrounds but most are RG/Oxbridge uni educated and in professional careers. Most live in affluent areas and their kids go to either good state schools and have always had parental support and input, or they go to independent schools. I see a range of outcomes with most doing really well or pretty well at GCSE. At A Level there is a bigger range and whilst many go onto RG unis, quite a few have had to do some re-sits or wait a couple of years or have taken courses which aren’t so well regarded. Many have done less well than their parents in terms of academic performance. Again it’s a generalisation, but those who have been to independent schools or selective state schools have generally done better.
The other thing that is noticeable I think in all schools sadly, is the increase in mental health difficulties. So many kids seem to have complex issues now. These can ruin a phase of education for anyone is any school. However, I have also noted that often the independent schools have direct access to counselling support in a speedy way, that can make a difference. Perhaps those parents too are more likely to pay quickly and be able to access support, which can take so long to get via the NHS. I don’t know really, but I’ve seen mental health issues amongst a number of my friends’ children and broadly speaking, those in independent schools seem to have moved onto the next stage more smoothly…..but I accept this might just be chance amongst my group rather than anything else.
I think this is the big area of concern for parents. We all want our children to be well and whole and I think we value it more than academic achievement…but academic pressure splays a role in creating mental health issues amongst other things. If some schools can manage it better than others, they will have a big claim to advantage. I do t know if any sector or type of school is shown to be doing better than others in this area at the moment though, but I hope all schools and society will be able to find ways forward with this most serious of issues.