@GreenEggsAndNaiceHam
I think two of our postings crossed:
You said "You think Yerbury would have 2 places coming up further up the school? "
Well it has happened before. (in all three schools mentioned not just Yerbury
You said "I would have thought there would be a long waiting list for any available places."
Yes, there is, for Yerbury, as for any other oversubscribed school for RECEPTION. Not so much for later years. People looking for later year (or in year admissions) will usually be people moving into the area. Less usually they will be looking to transfer children out of a school they have decided is unsatisfactory. Of course if they are doing that, then they free up a place in the school they are leaving. I have known that to happen both ways - where a child is transferred out of school A to school B into a place made vacant by the transfer of a child out of B to A.....
You said "It is something to think about OP, other local parents may still be on waiting lists for popular schools, and willing to move their children mid year if places become vacant."
I suppose that MIGHT happen, but most parents are reluctant to change schools once they are established in them, and on the whole, they are right. We (who live in the Whitehall Park area) are fortunate that there are a lot of good schools around, so basically a reason for not moving to a "popular" school is that you would be moving from a "popular" school.
The underlying point, (which was actually made to me by the Head of Yerbury a few years ago ) is that because there is a net outflow of children from Inner London over the primary school years there is a rising surplus of places over all. A bit like playing musical chairs where the number of chairs is constant but the number of players gets smaller. After a while its not just about grabbing the nearest chair when the music stops, but about getting the most comfortable one....