I also need to warn you he document you are quoting is hopelessly unreliable, written by someone who on his own admission did not have access to accurate data, (he complains that Islington refused to co operate with him so he had to fill in gaps with speculation) who did not understand the difference between a PAN, net capacity or how bulge classes work, or indeed the resourcing cycle of local authorities. Its a very complicated area.
It was on the basis of that document that ASAG stated on 2nd May 2013
“Reception classes in September 2013
It seems that there are likely to be more than enough children to fill a class if Ashmount School were to reopen as a free school this year, and probably enough for 2 classes. At present we understand that if enough parents express firm interest in a 2013 class, PLACE, one of the bidders to open a free school on the site in 2014, may be able to provide one.”
This is a claim of a shortage of up to sixty places....
And followed this up on 22 July 2013
“...there is already, this September, a shortage of places in the reception year in this school area.”
In fact the actual position on 2/10/13 was there were no children in the Whitehall Park area without a school place. There were five vacant reception class places at Hargrave Park. There were a further 22 vacant reception places in the North of the Borough (there were 53 vacant places in the South of the Borough). All late applicants in Islington also had places at that date except the last three recently received, who have not yet been allocated a place, but they were not in the Whitehall park area anyway.
So his predictions for this year were very wrong.
Given that all the Hargrave Park places did not fill this year you can see why Islington are cautious about creating places until they see what is actually happening. Especially as there is a downward trend in applications in Crouch End and both Coleridge and Ashmount had large numbers of siblings.
If the downward trend continued, and there were less siblings then the Coleridge and Ashmount catchments could well expand significantly. These things are subject to fluctuation. we cannot know for sure until the exact figures are in. What we do know is that Islington has significant net capacity in its schools and can therefore raise the PANs of these schools if required.