What kind of level would a child need to be at the end of year 3 to potentially be a level 6 in year 6?

[Iamnotminterested]

I'm just curious, we have a long way to go yet!? This is assuming of course that the level 6 test will not be scrapped before then!

since no one else answered, I'll take a punt and say that those who get 3bs and 3as have a strong chance of 6s in the end.

A 3b meredeux? That seems a little low.

I'm not sure about at the end of Y3 but in Y2 SATs my DD got level 3 across the board and she's now predicted to get L6 next year (has just been marked at 5b in Y5).

Her Y6 teacher seems to think that Level 6 will still be going next year.

Really? Because my DS2 is a 3b, but one point thingy off a 3a, in Y3, and I wouldn't have expected him to sit the L6 paper. In my DS1's year, Y5, only the ones who were a L4 at the end of Y3 are going to sit the L6 paper next year?!

I'd reckon you'd want to be at Level 4 at the end of Y3 (on the basis that the children expected to get Level 5 would be on 3b/3a).

sorry I was reading end of year 2, not year 3. So, add 3 sublevels for another year (if they are that good then they won't just make two) and say 4b or 4a by end year 3

but I am just guessing, maybe someone will be along in a minute whose child actually did get a L6 and they can look back and say where they were

My dd was level 4 at the end of yr3 level 6 end of yr 6

However ds1 was level 3 end of yr3 and level 6 in yr 6

They change and grow and learn a lot in those few years, I'd advise not to take yr 3 results as a absolute marker for yr 6 results.

In Maths, DS2 was a 4C at the end of Y3, 4a at the end of Y4... I can't find his Y5 report. He sat the level 6 maths paper this year.

I agree though - you just can't tell. A friend's child was brilliant up to around Y5 and then tailed off. Others suddenly grasped things and took off.

My dd1 was leveled at a 4c (top they gave in year 3) at the end of year 3, She's just done level 6 papers. She should comfortably get the maths, and don't know for the others.
I think some of the children who got 3a did the papers too, but not below (of those I know). About 1/3 the year did the L6 papers in each subject, although I think some it was "outside chance" rather than likely.

For interest she was 4a/5c end of year 4, and 5b/5a end of year 5, which is the 2 sublevels a year average. She was higher in the maths generally.

You can't really tell. They change so much year by year.

My son was level 6 in Maths at the end of year 6. I don't know what level he was at the end of year 3, but in year 4, he was tested and came out level 5 - it was at that point the school finally listened to me telling them how easy he found Maths!

Level 6 is 2 full levels above the average, so if level 2b is average for year 2, and you are supposed to go up roughly 2 sub levels a year, I am assuming you would be level 4 by the end of year 3 to be level 6 at the end of year 6.

Blimey I'm shocked they're either written off or have so much presumption at such an early age.There would be 3 years to go and don't they all mature at diff rates?

The thing is Shift, I don't think 2b is average. Its a level that 80% reach or exceed, whereas average should be the tipping point for 50% of children. I've never been able to find out what average actually is though in NC levels.
I know that the top 20% get 3c or better at the end of year 2 though.
Knowing a little statistics though, my guess is that level 6 at the end of year 6, is probably going to be the top 2% of all children by ability.

This has a diagram of levels at various ages, so would give you some idea, with the usual caveat that a child's progress is not linear and the all progress and plateau for different periods.

Michael Gove is planning to scrap levels completely, and won't replace them, in 2014.

Feenie our infants and juniors are both academies does that mean they can continue with levels if they wish?

Presumably so, but since any kind of statutory test wouldn't use them to measure children then there would be little point!

But what are they replacing them with, Feenie ?

DD1 sat the English and maths L6 papers this year, from what I've heard about the maths she'll have passed that comfortably - she was a 4a at the end of Yr4, ditto in English.

DD2 is in Yr4 at the moment and is expected to get 4b in maths, 5c in reading and writing but isn't as conscientious as DD1 so it will be interesting to see how she fares in the new system with me on her case.

Michael GOve might have said that he intends to scrap levels but actually schools need to have a level indicator or how else are they going to know what progress each child has made. Ofsted are certainly going to be looking at children making average or better progress and so will need to be sure that it is being measured.
I suspect that MR Gove means he is scrapping the existing levels and replacing them with something else, suspiciously like levels but different!

You would think, wouldn't you, but the exact wording was:

Education Secretary Michael Gove also announced today that the current system of levels and level descriptors ? which is confusing for parents and bureaucratic for teachers ? will be removed and not replaced.

Not sure why the dfe's hyphens would turn into question marks when copied and pasted

It has been suggested that they will adopt a similar system to the new EYFS profile (when it's written) where a child with be "emerging" " secure" or "exceeding" age expectations