The PAC report did not show that at all. It stated that government projections (i.e. the NAO report referred to) show that the 2007/08 changes will reduce costs by £67B over 50 years. That includes civil service and NHS pensions as well as teachers. However, the PAC noted that, as stated in the NAO report, 60% of this saving was expected to come from a change which has not been implemented (cost sharing and capping, which would result in higher employee contributions and/or lower benefits). Therefore if we carry on as we are the saving will less than £27B over 50 years. Note that all these figures are about the saving compared to what would have happened if none of the 2007/08 changes had been implemented. They do not suggest that public sector pension costs will fall. Indeed, the projections used show that pension costs will increase in absolute terms, although the cost to the taxpayer may stabilise as a percentage of GDP provided the Treasury's growth estimate is correct.
The NAO report into the impact of the 2007/08 changes did not describe public sector pensions as sustainable and affordable. It specifically avoided commenting on affordability on the basis that this is a political judgement. On the question of sustainability, it looks at three areas:
- financial stability
- fitness for purpose in recruitment and retention
- setting the right example to the private sector
On financial stability the NAO report pointed out that the only mechanism within the 2007/08 changes designed to improve stability was cost sharing and capping. As already noted, this has not been introduced. The NAO report goes on to point out that many possible sources of financial instability are not addressed by the 2007/08 changes at all.
The NAO did not arrive at a clear conclusion on fitness for purpose but noted that the changes substantially reduced the value of public service pensions to staff in the new schemes.
Finally, on setting an example to the public sector the NAO concluded that the 2007/08 changes had failed.