Energy and our future...

[energyBlind]

Hi, have name changed - would have posted this on general chat but I think there will just be too many angry-in-denial folk dismissing the reality.

We need to prepare for a very, very difficult era which we have never known before. Very few are talking about the reality.

Has anyone listened/watched any Nate Hagen? This animated 30min video superbly sums up the huge elephant in the room that is coming for us.
Must watch!

I couldn't agree more. Haven't watched the aforementioned video but, in my opinion, the writing is on the wall for all to see. Frightening really.

Entirely agree. Many of us will have to go back to no heating / no electricity at all.

The insane over-population of our tiny island over the last 50 years will be the final nail in the coffin, as we are no longer to feed ourselves if blockaded as in WW2. Macron was not wrong - this is the end of the age of abudance. It is in fact the end of sufficiency, to be more accurate, and that means death for many, in Europe as well as the rest of the world.

Most people have no idea what's coming...I envy them their blissful ignorance.

I know these are worrying times, but accuracy is always important. We have not been self-sufficient in food since about the second half of the 1700s. We rely on about 48% imports for our food, which is why it was so obvious that Brexit was going to be a complete and utter disaster for our food security. We are a trading nation, so if we are looking at food security improving , the best thing we could do is to get back into the EU.

Getting back into the EU may help in the short-term, but the UK, the EU and the whole world are going to be pretty helpless as the availability of fossil fuels declines in ease-of-extraction and quality, and increases astronomically in price as a result.

Agriculture requires a lot of fossil fuels.

Our economy is built on debt and the assumption that it will increase 3% per year (and a lot of predictions on oil-longevity for example, don't take this into account). It is extremely worrying that no leader seems to be facing this with the truth - they just want to be voted in at the next election.

We are now committing economic suicide by putting price-caps on energy bills instead of planning to dramatically reduce our energy consumption. It's a sticking plaster that will leave us ever-more screwed down the line.

Not to mention the separate issue that the baby-boomer population in Europe
and the UK are moving into retirement - therefore removing their capital from the economy and becoming service users - while the next generation of workers are not sufficient in number to replace the economic loss (France is the exception - they have had more children than the rest of us). This is not solvable with immigration and will effect the globe - NZ and the US as well as france's baby-boomers had enough children so this issue is delayed for them, for now.

China is due to have a demographic collapse in the next decade.

Very interesting thanks for posting

What time scale do you think we will see huge changes

I'm 43 and my kids 6/8

My life time.?? Mostly there's or there Childrens etc.

Haven't watched the video as it's likely to be tinfoil hat fodder. However, I believe that the future will mean going backwards to a large extent. Simpler living, less tech and gadgets and more make do and mend. Especially when antibiotics finally become obsolete.

Theres differing opinions but the general consensus is that there will be a big decline in our living standards in the next ten years.

Its really not in the tin hat realm whatsoever.

@energyBlind When you say a big decline in our living standards, do you have specific examples and are there things we can do to prepare?

It's really hard to speculate on exactly what is going to happen and when. I'm no expert, having only recently 'woken up' to this myself. I'm working my way through the Great Simplification podcast, which has some incredibly qualified and intelligent professionals on talking about why things are going to get bad, and potential ways we can adapt as societies. Unfortunately they stay away from advising us how to prep as individuals, other than mentally preparing and finding ways to be less energy-dependent, enjoying the things in life which are free and building a strong community where you live.

In the next decade it seems almost guaranteed that prices of energy and food will increase dramatically.
It will become harder to buy 'things' cheaply as the prices to produce things sky-rocket, normal people cannot afford them and businesses fail. China will no longer be a source of cheap, abundant goods either.
It will become much harder to maintain pr replace computers and phones that we own as available tech materials become harder to get hold of.

We will be forced into a very different way of living - the government will not be able to continue to print money and put plasters on the situation with ever-more debt as they are attempting to do now.

Personally, I am thinking in terms of: I wont be able to afford a lot of food. I wont be able to afford to use a lot of electricity. I will need ways to entertain myself and my family that don't involve screens.

I am looking into:
Growing food. Keeping chickens. Learning at how to preserve foods.
Re-insulating the house best I can for the winter. Accumulating blankets/duvets/onesies etc.
Putting external shutters on the windows to try and keep the heat out in the summer.

I'm changing my throw-away habits.
I'm hoarding anti-bac cleaning products and soaps, painkillers, first aid stuff. I'm not giving away clothes or books anymore.
I'm teaching the family that having a shower every day or even every-other day is not realistic.

Most people on this board will be far more knowledgable than I am on how to be self sufficient so I am here for tips myself!!

Nate Hagens latest thoughts on Green Energy Growth vs Degrowth arguments.

FYI: Nate Hagens is not a doomsday peddler.
He is Director of The Institute for the Study of Energy & Our Future (ISEOF) which consists of leading ecologists, energy experts, etc. He holds a Masters Degree in Finance with Honors from the University of Chicago and a Ph.D. in Natural Resources from the University of Vermont.
He teaches an Honors course at the University of Minnesota.

He mentions also again the importance that as individuals we mentally prepare and 'de grow' for the sharp economical decline that will come this decade.......Because even with the best political will in the world, we cant stop what is coming. Regardless, there are numerous reasons why our governments and the 'economic-growth and profit-making machine' will not and cannot stop kicking the can down the road and keeping the accelerator pressed.

I couldn’t agree more.

one thing that’s always forgotten in terms of energy and resource saving.

getting fit and healthy and eating well. Lifestyle related sickness is a huge energy and resource drain that’s entirely preventable and we should consider this in our ‘using less’ changes.

I do not mean those with disabilities.

I’m talking lifestyle sicknesses like alcohol misuse and excess, smoking, fast food being your primary food group, excess sugar, poor hygiene and dental care. The stuff we can take control of . we’re too used to having all of our ills fixed even the ones we cause ourselves with pills etc and there’s no real incentive to change and it’s going to be a very sharp shock for people when this has to change.

OP in regards to your preparing. Consider purchasing a pull along shopping trolley and/or one of those folding garden/festival carts.

I am purchasing a garden cart this month so I can easily bring things home without having to use a taxi/bus or friends. I’m learning to drive but probably won’t own a car as much as I need to where I live.

purchasing bicycles and learning to be confident on your bike would also be another good step for preparing as well as a book on how to maintain your bike.

transport will be one of the biggest issues imo after energy consumption.

a friend of mine, ex navy etc can see us returning to horse cart and foot travel for every day journeys and cars/busses will become a luxury. I wouldn’t be surprised, there’s a little town somewhat locally that’s already using Donkeys to do food deliveries. And EV isn’t the future.

oh and collective community effort - support all the little local shops, business and farms that you can. We need to have shops we can walk to and not have to drive miles to get to. Support them, we’re going to need them.

Yes! What you are saying about preventing I'll health is so important.

I had actually been thinking about getting bicycles and a trailer to attach to carry goods. We live in a rural village - we have a large garden despite not being well off which is one bonus of living here.....but I cant help think we will be rather cut off. Although I think its preferable to living in a city when everything kicks off, its probably not preferable to living in our local town.

It sounds similar to Limits to Growth, a report from the 70s based on a computer model which suggested that growth would decline from around 2020,

www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/
www.clubofrome.org/ltg50/
www.resilience.org/stories/2022-06-01/the-limits-to-growth-after-50-years-more-relevant-than-ever/

Update by KPMG director Gaya Herrington to compare data from today which the predictions from the 70s:
advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/limits-to-growth.html

She explains it in this article
www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-world-model/
"In the 1972 bestselling book Limits to Growth (LtG), the authors (Meadows, Meadows, Randers & Behrens) concluded that if humanity kept pursuing economic growth without regard for environmental costs, global society would experience sharp declines in available food, standards of living, and ultimately the human population, within the 21st century.

The LtG authors used a dynamic systems model, World3, to study key interactions between global variables for population, fertility, mortality, industrial output per capita (p.c.), food p.c., services p.c., nonrenewable resources, and pollution. World3 is based on the work of Forrester (e.g, 1971; 1975), at the time a professor at MIT and the founder of system dynamics: a modeling approach for the interactions between parts of a system, which often produce non-linear behavior like delays, feedback loops, and exponential growth or decline."

@shhhhhhhhhhhh

I was listening to this interview with Dennis Meadows one of the authors of LTG and creator of the simulation world3 ... 2 days ago actually- its well worth a listen!!

I don't think wealthy people have any intention of living on a diet of insects and carbohydrates or freezing all winter; and I think we're going to see some very radical changes from now on. Its been noticeable in various areas for some years, notably agriculture and the NHS.

It does seem like the government has missed a trick with the new energy price per unit cap, as keeping it all artificially low doesn't do anything to encourage consumption reduction. Just more government debt to pay for the subsidy. Feels like capped to average use them uncapped after, or a capped amount per household member would have been harder to administer, but encourage people to use less. With the existing warm house payments for elderly and disabled people increased. Plus the madness of covering good arable land in solar panels instead of the several million roofs available. The built in obsolescence of most devices and appliances is nothing short of criminal.

This is a very eye opening and sobering thread. I watched the video and there was nothing tin hat about it crossstitchingnana, in fact.
i tend to use this board as we live very rurally and it helped me when we had power cuts last year . I have found it helpful to get a bit more prepared and the issue of food production and possible shortages also worries me. (Are rising energy costs affecting farmers’ productivity ?)

I listened to the Limits to Growth podcast, thanks, it was interesting.

There's even a Sky News journalist who says energy is everything, and he is right, every single economic activity is built on energy. Energy is linked to everything we do or consume.

I've thought about these issues for a while, especially after LTG, it's not something you can talk about IRL, I wonder if other people are even aware of it or in denial? It's hard to think about and it can be depressing, I listened to a couple of the podcasts and had to take a step back for a couple of days. I'm not sure what any of us can do, apart from trying to live with less. I'm trying but I'm not sure I'm ready to give up the dishwasher yet.

I'm not completely convinced... this is a very complex issue and it will massively depend on the next few generations how this pans out.

Things to consider:

• the harnessing of sun, wind and water in order to generate electricity- and therefore moving away from fossil fuels.
• many western countries are currently overpopulated, but at the same time, birth rates are falling...
• there will be countries that are able to produce food and provide enough for their own populations (I saw this when holidaying in Europe, food prices have gone up but nowhere as much as in the UK. The cheapest items seem to be fresh, local/ national produce.)

Fact is, our world is changing and has always been changing through our own curiosity and innovation. Otherwise, we'd all still be living in caves and picking nuts & berries and go hunting, as my history teacher used to say.
This huge "re-adjustment" that is happening now isn't anything new either. There have been pandemics, famine and recessions throughout history. It's a cycle, they come and go...

Only the rich will be able to do things like keeping chickens and growing food. The poor don’t have enough space in their tiny gardens, or they may not even have gardens. A small back garden can only yield a handful of food, people need about an acre per person to feed themselves effectively. Most people lack gardening skills too, it’s not as simple as throwing seeds in and expecting them to grow. Not to mention that if you grow food in poverty stricken areas people climb the fence and steal it. I have seen whole hives of bees stolen because they’re worth over £1k, and egg-laying chickens and geese go missing too (no doubt they end up in someone’s oven).

I grew my own on a very small scale last year - I spent £300 on a greenhouse to grow tomatoes worth much less than £300. Then someone climbed the fence, smashed the glass and stole the aluminium to sell for scrap.

Energy = GDP it is that simple.

its the measure of growth that’s going to be our downfall unless we can shift our wealth measuring metrics, abandon unlimited growth of capitalism and focus on something much more realistic and enduring.

god I long for the days where billionaires built museums and libraries and created scholarship trusts rather than jettison themselves into space in some ridiculous pissing contest. I know that was the time of colonialism and stolen wealth

in realistic terms we have to change fast and the message that constantly comes to mind is to refuse to consume. We don’t need 3+ computers in our homes. Our washing machines and kettles don’t need to connect to our WiFi.

And ffs whoever invented the ‘reverse vacuum’ that is the leaf blower really highlighted just how ridiculous we’ve gotten when a broom and rake did the job and WTF didn’t it just suck so we could compost the lot of it we just blow them about and the wind puts it back for us to blow it about again.

Ok silliness aside Switch to ‘analogue’ wherever it’s applicable is going to be huge for everyone. Make those steps now when the energy crisis really bites it’ll be less of a shock.

Energy = GDP it is that simple
Indeed. If energy costs too much then all non essential spending will cease. Millions will lose their jobs. We will be back to the days of working solely for subsistence and not having any luxuries or non essentials at all.

I do fear another Great Depression.

I'm rushing around with the kids this morning but quickly, just attaching these excerpts from a video transcript on why renewables is unfortunately not a viable answer to our problems: