Energy and our future...

[energyBlind]

Hi, have name changed - would have posted this on general chat but I think there will just be too many angry-in-denial folk dismissing the reality.

We need to prepare for a very, very difficult era which we have never known before. Very few are talking about the reality.

Has anyone listened/watched any Nate Hagen? This animated 30min video superbly sums up the huge elephant in the room that is coming for us.
Must watch!

This is exactly the type of imminent future I am trying to wrap my head around preparing for.

People who should be, are not telling the truth - it is too uncomfortable and shocking to face or believe. After discovering something so powerful and so precious, we have burned through it carelessly with the stupid, unforgivable belief that it would always be there. Even main-stream economists who advise governments only take energy into account in terms of cost to extract, not as a finite resource.

It's too much for us to comprehend that we have all fucked it up so horribly.

@ChickpeaFlour

Are rising energy costs affecting farmers’ productivity ?

Yes.
Even countries who currently have the capability to feed their populations with their own agricultural processes (like the US, for example), become helpless without oil. The growing prices of depleting fossil fuels is a nightmare.

After discovering something so powerful and so precious, we have burned through it carelessly with the stupid, unforgivable belief that it would always be there
To be fair, it is currently still there. We have decades of fuel left. The current problem is that Russia won’t sell it to us.

I find it amazing that people are shocked that Russia wont sell it.
Did they really expect Russia to keep providing fuel to countries that sided with, in Russia eyes, their Enemy. If you want to weaken a country prevent or reduce its access to resources is common sense.
Yes Russia needs to sell the resource, but they have other options.

It is crazy really that the UK has placed itself in a position where we are almost entirely reliant on outside sources for every vital resource. Allies across the globe will not come to our aid if their own resources are limited.

The UK should have prepared for this by ensuring that it could produce enough to be self-sufficient if needed even if this is an extremely basic self sufficiency

'Are rising energy costs affecting farmers’ productivity?'

Yes very much so. It's been a disastrous year for crops. Mostly down to lack of water. It's still too dry to plant winter crops despite recent rain. The amount falling isn't enough to replenish the earth yet. I think they need 12 weeks of heavy rain to redress the balance.

Due to the energy crisis farmers are also delaying planting any items that might need artificial heat and light until next spring.

I think there will be a definite shortage of some items in the shops due to this.

@Dadaya "We have decades of fuel left. The current problem is that Russia won't sell it to us."

Actually in the uk we don't rely on a large percentage of Russian gal and oil. The problem goes far beyond Russia.

forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wXzc75txE5hbHqYug/the-great-energy-descent-short-version-an-important-thing-ea

"Oil production will decline in the short to medium term (before 2040, it’s even possible that we won’t reach the levels of November 2018 again). The situation is different from the last oil shocks, since most countries today see a decline in oil production. If we look at the top 3 producers, Saudi Arabia announced that it would peak in 2027, Russia that it had peaked in 2019, and many executives from US energy companies believe that US production has peaked.

The reason for that is that oil extraction proceeds according to the low-hanging-fruit principle: the highest-quality and easiest-to-get resources are usually harvested first, so that we are now left with the stuff that is harder and costlier to extract. This is a diminishing returns problem. This doesn't mean we will "run out", as there are still a lot of resources in the ground. But it means that they will be less and less affordable each year. Natural gas and coal should last a little longer but not that much.

There is a very tight link between energy production and GDP growth. Some studies point to a one-way causality, with a dependency ratio higher than that of labor or capital. This makes sense, as goods and services need energy and natural resources to be produced. The data so far seems to indicate that an absolute decoupling is very unlikely at a global level. All of this means that a long-term decline of GDP will probably happen, unless we find a way to ensure a continuous supply of affordable energy. In the worst but probable case, long-term decline of growth means that we would have to redefine what we expect of human potential."

Longer in depth articles:

Part 1
/posts/qG8k5pzhaDk6FhcYv/the-great-energy-descent-part-1-can-renewables-replace

Part 2 forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8sW4h368DsoooHBNP/the-great-energy-descent-part-2-limits-to-growth-and-why-we

Part 3
forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9zTLPy3zqJ7YfS7kn/the-great-energy-descent-post-3-what-we-can-do-what-we-can-t

Agreed OP, it's worrying. I'm in Ireland where we have a Green party whose only policies seem to be a carbon tax on everything, no real solutions. Added to that we have massive data centres taking up huge amounts of our energy grid. But they bring in money, so the government allow it.

I agree with the frustration of everything having to be automated nowadays, it's all a huge drain on our energy resources. Houses nowadays have far more electrical items than ever - looking round the average kitchen and so many things don't have to be plug in, a bit of elbow grease would do what's necessary. But there is a general trend towards everything being connected, which I find weird. I'm very grateful for technology but it's a blessing and a curse. And in a way it keeps us distracted, so we don't notice the decline in nature around us.

It's interesting that having a small homestead and growing veg, keeping hens etc. is what many of our poor ancestors did, but it's now become the preserve of the upper middle classes who have the space and time to do these things.

I have been worrying about energy/ resource availability for a while, I don't have kids to worry about, or I would fear for their future. I have a dream of being off grid in a little tiny house on wheels (basically a fancy wooden framed, properly insulated caravan that can be moved in case of fire or flood) living with less stuff, and with my own mini homestead. Who knows if it will happen but I will definitely try in a few years when my parents are gone (currently caring for them in their old age). Some solar panels and rainwater collection system, a few animals and a quiet life. Not so reliant on systems that are out of my control.

But as you pointed out OP, renewables are not perfect, however I will take solar panels working for 25 years than none at all. Actually I think they just lose efficiency after that time, so may work 50% or something. But I agree the resources needed to build them is a problem.

Actually in the uk we don't rely on a large percentage of Russian gal and oil. The problem goes far beyond Russia.
We don’t buy much from Russia. But the rest of Europe does. And Russia won’t supply them. So they’re buying our stuff from our suppliers instead and pushing the price up, and there isn’t enough left for us. It all comes back to Russia turning off the taps. Yes in the long term we need alternative sources of energy. But right now there’s plenty, just Russia won’t supply it.

It's interesting that having a small homestead and growing veg, keeping hens etc. is what many of our poor ancestors did, but it's now become the preserve of the upper middle classes who have the space and time to do these things.
And this comes back to money. Only the rich have the space to keep chickens and grow veg. Which ironically they don’t need to, because they’re rich and can afford to buy eggs and veg!

That video is very powerful, and articulates something I have felt for a long long time.

But it has also invoked a real feeling of horror. The world will not listen until their neighbour’s house is metaphorically on fire.

It’s too easy to dismiss as tin hattery (as we have seen upthread). Like trying to turn a gigantic ship when you are not at the wheel.

since this is the Preppers thread - how can we prep for this? Self sufficiency I guess in the short term, in the long term how do we prepare our children?

@GreenLeavesRustling

Yes the know how to prepare is very difficult.
We have an area that we were going to build an extension. I am trying to work out if we should build a ground fridge there instead. The not know timescale is difficult. If we are likely to need a groundfridge in next few years then utilising the space for that seems more sensible than an extension that while currently needed would be less important if we are in a situation where electricity is few and far between.

I swing from wanting to change now so we are prepared to thinking that we may as well enjoy life now and deal with the future when it happens. Us going without now when everyone else is not could be harder for the children and us to process and accept then if everyone is in the same situation.

@Shtfday
that is almost exactly how I feel. I think we will gently begin lifestyle preps in the background (we are a way along the road already) while maintaining normality for the kids - bit like with Covid - is easier to deal with for them if they can see everyone is in the same boat.

feels like I took the red pill ☹️

@GreenLeavesRustling
Yes - we have some preps in place since pre covid which we will continue with. We are reducing electricity usage to help with bills too. Using solar lights, we use for camping for evening now. No idea how much this saves but we have them so may as well use them.

we started growing a few bits with covid and will continue - we are pretty bad at it so far but with any luck we will have learnt a bit more by the time we need it 😂

@Shtfday
same! I have a greenhouse and raised beds, but currently probably only self sufficient in about ten percent of veg, 5 percent of fruit - oh and 100 percent t of eggs 😂

we have wood burners and self sufficient in wood - but our hot water is oil fired, as is our heating. We don’t have the heating on ever because of the wood burners - but oil is clearly not a good option for hot water.

maybe we just roll with it and see what happens… I guess a sensible approach might also be to try to increase the percentage of fruit and veg we grow ourselves.

feels like a drop in the ocean.

@Dadaya Russia has definitely sped up the rate that the shit is hitting the fan for us.
Regardless, having "a few decades" left of fossil fuels is not much of a comfort - less and less of us will afford to pay the prices charges for a decreasing resource that is ever more costly to extract.
Not only that, this is going to be a huge issue for our children and grandchildren even if it isnt for us (but it will be for us!).

I also feel quite horrified since watching and reading all of this information.

Sounds like you and @Shtfday are way ahead of me with prepping for the short and long term.

I think the best way to prep our children is to lead by example, and just do the best we can to become as self sufficient as possible..make do and mend instead of throw-away (basic stitching skills, bike repairs etc ) - growing veg if you have the space, learning about wildlife and the ecosystem around us, what is valuable to forage. Knitting!
Weaning the family from daily showers/baths, and understanding that meat is a luxury - it should be and always was before horribly cruel factory-farming drove the cost down at the expense of animal welfare .
Less screens, more reading-aloud with them - a daily habit and source of entertainment.

I have a heck of a lot to learn myself 😫

Getting into a preparing mindset sounds like a good plan. I don't think I can cut everything out, I am starting to appreciate how much our lives are dependent on energy and how it should be appreciated.

I'm thinking of getting books instead of relying on google for everything, things like gardening, cooking or DIY.

Have a look at a series of books called the River Cottage Handbooks. They are a perfect companion set covering a broad range of subjects ideally suited for a preparedness mindset. Lots available second hand at a fraction of the cost of new on eBay too.

Thanks for the tip, I'm going to look at the gardening ones, have you been able to put the knowledge from the books into practice?

You're very welcome. Oh yes. We are now very actively gardening, foraging, home brewing and preserving. The books are very well written and, in my opinion, are perfect for the inexperienced (like we were) would be home brewer/gardener/forager etc to gain insight into that particular subject.

Thank you @Dogden .

@energyBlind , I listened to one of the podcasts and he was talking about a debt crisis, how there are now much higher levels of debt than in the past. He was saying something along the lines of how debt is using energy quicker, I'd never though of it in those terms. If you buy something now rather than waiting and saving for years, I guess the energy to produce it is being used sooner.

We couldn’t feed ourselves in WW2 either. That’s why we had rations and people their lives bringing imports to the country.

we haven’t been fully self sufficient since the mid 1800s.

I completely agree with you that the outlook is bad but the U.K. has been storing these problems for a very long time.

There are rays of hope. This site has some good stuff and you might like this article:
www.euronews.com/green/2022/08/29/battery-breakthrough-scientists-invent-cheap-aluminium-sulphur-alternative-to-lithium-ion-