Russia and Ukraine, US preppers in high doh, potential impacts here?

[BiddyPop]

A number of US and Canadian based preppers seem to be getting even more anxious about the potential for DOOOOOOMMMMMM than usual - partly transport and logistics issues, but also theories about "government interference" and impending potential conflict situations.

Here, I am seeing

• Bird flu outbreaks happening (no longer just warnings and odd tiny spots)

-Potential that Russia will invade Ukraine thus shutting off gas supplies to Europe causing even more energy price increases/potentially shortage of supply

• Continuing logistics issues caused by the combination of Covid and Brexit
• Relatively high inflation on food and many other items

But, on the less pessimistic side:

• the weather is not as bad as many years,
• there is food on the shelves in shops, (gaps yes, but plenty of food)
• lots of countries are trying to talk Russia down,
• Covid is less of an issue as Omicron is making people so much less sick in general, even if it is making more people mildly sick
• and China is being very quiet at the moment.

So I'm trying to decide if I should be optimistic or pessimistic (currently at a point of starting to use up some of my back up supplies and run down stores again, but wondering if I should just be turning them over and replacing what I use rather than depleting them).

And if I should be looking at things like water purification systems or other areas of prepping (am ok for alternative cooking, reasonable alternative heating, some backup power and some water storage etc).

Good point about the fear of blowing yourselves with gas, I had forgotten how uncomfortable I was with the gas heater we had in our porch! Think I will steer clear of gas stoves. But turns out all the camping stoves of any kind are out of stock where I was looking anyway so it shall have to wait. Was going to get a dynamo/solar power radio/torch/powerbank as well but that sold out while I was trying to decide about the stove!

Just been going through my stocks and rotating flour etc. I stocked up on oils about 6 weeks ago. I abandoned olive oil years ago in favour of British rapeseed oil. The Aldi one is about £1.49 (500ml) so half the price of elsewhere. I don't use a lot of other oils, but I've got a couple of bottles of sunflower oil stashed.

A note about potatoes to anyone who might be interested. We've grown our own for 40 yrs and produce enough to sustain ourselves for a whole year. My Dad grows the larger varieties at his massive allotment, I grow the smaller salad types (Rocket, Pentland Javelin, Chatlotte etc) My biggest tip that I can pass on is this though. I love Jersey Royals, and as the season is so short, it's nice to try and grow them yourself. The actual potato is called International Kidney potato. It can cost about £6 for a kilo of seed potatoes, so quite expensive. The first jerseys should appear in shops in about a month. If you buy a bag or two, let them chit on a windowsill for a few weeks and plant them in May, they are usually ready for harvesting around late Sept. Try and add seaweed as it's a fantastic fertiliser, and adds to the flavour. 2nd tip is to leave some growing in big pot (protected from elements) and dig up on Christmas Eve. Yummy fresh, home grown 'Jersey Royals' for your Christmas dinner. It's also a nice little ritual / tradition 😊

Note: they don't taste exactly the same as the potatoes from Jersey due to soil / conditions etc, but still bloody lovely!

We have enough rice and pasta to keep us going a decade...(Slight exaggeration)

Mind if I join? I’m in Norway and work in maritime transport (oil, gas, dry cargos, containers etc) so may have some perspective of value. Im a novice prepper but long time credit cruncher.

If somewhere is hit as a nuclear target, how much notice if any would you get? We’re 30mioes from somewhere I guess would be a first target. Would there be any notice and if it hit there, how long for the basalt to travel 30miles/would we be affected?
We’ve thought which room in the house we’d use, wondering if we should put stuff in there or would have time to move stuff on form other rooms etc for a few days before we decide whether it’s worth living or not.

@ElectricFlower from what I remember re timings (but definitely safe to double check!):

• our defence systems would get about 20 minutes warning of a strike, whether the govt would choose to share that information of course we don't know
• The initial blast shock wave is over in about 2 minutes, so if the light of a blast is your first warning then shelter in place as you can't judge the distance of the explosion
• you then have 10+ minutes to get to shelter before fallout starts, and you'll need to stay there 48 hours at least

Use this site to work out your risks.

@Snuppeline I am not a core person on this board but I would love to hear your perspective, especially on grain and freight.
There were ships shot in the black sea and (because) they were carrying grain southwards??

The situation is quite complex. Not only the agricultural produce itself is in doubt as farmers in Ukraine not likely to be able to tend the land and Russia has said it will not export. A further problem has been highlighted by Yara, one of the worlds largest fertilizer company, who recently warned that because some key ingredients in modern fertilizers are coming from Russia (as shared up thread) they will not be able to produce the normal amounts and this has an impact on global farming. Ukraine, if it was able to farm this year would be prevented from exporting via its sea border as it is blocked by Russia. No ships can come in and those that were there when the war broke out are stuck.

The list of the wheat producers in the world shared above is not quite representative as Europe got a lot of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia, whilst Asian countries have been getting from sources closer to home. So the impact from the loss of wheat in Europe is immediately higher but will be sorted by our rich governments but to the detriment of higher prices for poorer nations. It is telling that China has been filling up on Wheat and other products that are directly impacted by this war.
They knew alright.

That was in answer to AppleButter

That's really interesting @Snuppeline and how I imagined it was going to impact. The detail really does give the true picture.

About 6 weeks ago, I shared concerns with my parents about wheat and told them how many kilos of pasta I had put aside. My Mum was like WTF? but Dad just said "that's better than money in the bank, at the moment"

Thank you @Snuppeline that doesnt bode too well at the
moment.
I don’t think european countries even have grain stores or silos anymore, and are probably hashing out emergency security of supply plans with leading food companies right now.

I noticed when doing the weekly shop that all the local supermarkets had no dried pasta, I looked online for a big bag as my DCs eat a lot of it, I know it's the one thing they'll all eat together, but they're all sold out online too. Luckily my friend saw a new delivery coming into Aldi in the next village over and picked up a few bags for me.

I went to the shop today and pasta was on sale, 4 bags for a euro, obviously not worried about a pasta shortage in that shop.

Glad your friend did that TonyBravo

Where I am, the shops are cleared fully of sunflower oil, all vegetable oils, flour, pasta and oats. This started a week or 10 days ago. Rice and bulgur are short and expensive. There is more coming in and there are sensible controls to stop people buying a cartload. So some selective panic buying, but everything else is there, which is a relief.
National headlines are at that aldi has had to raise many prices.

@allgineaway

Do you have a link to the bluetti?
Also have you tried cooking on it using hob? How long does it last for?

@Shtfday I don't know how to do links but Google "Bluetti EB150" it's also known as "Poweroak" (same item but UK branding). We got the one with two 200w solar panels.

Only just started using it. Charged from the mains first time. To check what it would power we tried it on the toaster and vintage record player (both fine). Then charged phones twice, charged up electric lanterns and had the electric throw plugged in for about 4 hours. It took the power down on it by approx 2/5.

I know anything involving heat, especially cooking, uses a lot. We've got a pan with two steamers on top so we can maximise cooking from one hob.

We had brought it for emergency only but given the electricity prices we're going to charge from solar and use as often as we can. The battery lasts about 10 years so best to use it rather than leaving in a cupboard.

This was in the German papers this morning, the following is from twieeeter:

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
·
4h
⚡️Russians steal five grain carriers from Berdyansk port.

Oleksandr Starukh, governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, said on March 21 that the stolen ships were carrying tens of thousands of tons of grain. Eyewitnesses say the ships were stolen by Russian tugboats.
————

Which means that grain was being exported (or imported) and has now been diverted.

@Caspianberg

We have sirens used still where we live. The get tested every Saturday at midday. They go off for volunteer fire brigade a lot, car accidents locally, avalanche warnings and they have nuclear option ( but I wouldn’t really now what that alarm is)

I’ve only just found out that in Finland they test the sirens every Monday. My friend called it “the Russians are coming alarm”. All apartment blocks are build with a bomb shelter in the basement as they remember their grandparents losing their homes to Russia when it took a bit of Finland previously. They have been fortifying their border.

Complete novice when it comes to radios. Can we get a pair of radios to work 2 way that would work over an hours driving distance? Thinking of something happens and someone is away work and phones go down. Can tell them where we are/find out if they’re com home or we need to leave etc.

@DiamondCushion I'm in Finland, I don't live near enough the sirens to hear them any more but they always unsettled me slightly every Monday lunchtime. Though they've changed to only once a month now in my town and many other areas. No bomb shelters for those of us in detached houses though.

I think friend lives fairly near the Russian border and still has theirs weekly. So strange to think about countries that have had to stay this prepared for always and we were oblivious to so much happening in the world.

We have weekly sirens too in the Netherlands, every Monday at 12:00 and we also get emergency alert text messages occasionally to make sure the national network is working.

To be honest, I wouldn't know what to do if I heard the siren outside of testing time, I don't know the protocol, you've made me realise I should find out!

Definitely a good idea to look up the protocol, never know when they might go off for all kinds of things. Once experienced being told to shelter indoors, they didn't sound the siren as far as I remember but they interrupted the local radio to tell us all to close all windows and vents and stay inside as an accident at a factory or maybe it was the energy plant, had released toxic clouds. Power was out too. Was at the pub at the time and we all had to stay inside, in candlelight, and had to pay for our drinks with cash as the tills weren't working with no power.

I'm in the UK, AFAIK there's no sirens here, but who knows?!

Went to the supermarket late tonight and the shelves were quite bare, might be the time I went though (possibly after the main rush but before restocking time?) - on the bright side the reduced shelves were full, I've bought enough to make a couple of chicken casseroles and have some portions to freeze

As the DC are bigger now I'm thinking about getting a (cheap) BBQ to cook more on in the summer - was always worried about it before in case they barged into it, common sense not being amongst their virtues - partly for reasons of economy (as presumably it'll be cheaper than oven cooking) and partly in case gas/ electric are more scarce in future!