Russia and Ukraine, US preppers in high doh, potential impacts here?

[BiddyPop]

A number of US and Canadian based preppers seem to be getting even more anxious about the potential for DOOOOOOMMMMMM than usual - partly transport and logistics issues, but also theories about "government interference" and impending potential conflict situations.

Here, I am seeing

• Bird flu outbreaks happening (no longer just warnings and odd tiny spots)

-Potential that Russia will invade Ukraine thus shutting off gas supplies to Europe causing even more energy price increases/potentially shortage of supply

• Continuing logistics issues caused by the combination of Covid and Brexit
• Relatively high inflation on food and many other items

But, on the less pessimistic side:

• the weather is not as bad as many years,
• there is food on the shelves in shops, (gaps yes, but plenty of food)
• lots of countries are trying to talk Russia down,
• Covid is less of an issue as Omicron is making people so much less sick in general, even if it is making more people mildly sick
• and China is being very quiet at the moment.

So I'm trying to decide if I should be optimistic or pessimistic (currently at a point of starting to use up some of my back up supplies and run down stores again, but wondering if I should just be turning them over and replacing what I use rather than depleting them).

And if I should be looking at things like water purification systems or other areas of prepping (am ok for alternative cooking, reasonable alternative heating, some backup power and some water storage etc).

Thank you for the radio idea @MarshmallowSwede!

Another thing I'm thinking of is buying a bike... not specifically for prepping purposes (although obviously it could help if the cost of fuel goes through the roof!) but also general fitness, joining the DC for bike rides etc. Argos had a 25% off sale in February on a bike I really liked but I was just too skint to get it that month, and now the sale has finished

I did a big Wilko order the other day @bellinisurge and included some new seeds and compost, will get the DC busy with those when it arrives! I put some more candles in there too, they'll always get used or can be stored anyway.

@HeadacheGrey and @AdoraBell - I sometimes require antibiotics at short notice and my GP has prescribed me some to keep at home, in case I'm taken ill at the weekend or want to take them on holiday, for example. If you (or family member) is the same, it's worth asking your GP for a pre-emptive prescription!

Dh has come home shocked that another parent at a match (in relevant business) told him flour prices have risen 40% since the invasion.

I wasn't surprised.

But dd is afraid it now means the food cupboard will bulge with flour (no, I have an open and a spare bag each of cream, self raising and strong so that's plenty for our needs for a good while).

Isn't Ukraine one of the world's biggest grain producers @BiddyPop? So I wouldn't be surprised either!

Both my bags of flour tore this weekend, annoyingly

Yes it is.

@ClaraTheImpossibleGirl

Isn't Ukraine one of the world's biggest grain producers *@BiddyPop*? So I wouldn't be surprised either!

Both my bags of flour tore this weekend, annoyingly

Top Wheat Producing Countries Rank Country Wheat Produced (Tonnes) 1 China 134,340,630 2 India 98,510,000 3 Russian Federation 85,863,132 4 United States of America 47,370,880 5 France 36,924,938 6 Australia 31,818,744 7 Canada 29,984,200 8 Pakistan 26,674,000 9 Ukraine 26,208,980 10 Germany 24,481,600

www.worldatlas.com/articles/top-wheat-producing-countries.html

A couple of the US and Canada based preppers I have been looking at on YouTube have been warning about global stockpiling of resources, especially food and energy, by a few key nations, especially China and Russia, for the past year or so. They are among the more shrill, not necessarily gun-totin' but definitely fear-mongering type - and it definitely would be a bigger concern on that side of the Atlantic where there is far greater dependency on imports than in Europe as a whole. But there is a huge focus by some on the need for massive stockpiles there.

Here, well, we have good agricultural land that DOES produce grain when needed, and plenty of other food. We have the capacity to increase our renewable energy as we have good wind, good waves (even if that technology is less proven), and reasonable sun.

So having a basement full of flour is not the top of my agenda - just enough to keep me going for a couple of months normal use (or at least 2-3 weeks if we had a SHTF situation and shelves were bare of both flour and bread).

But the household budget is likely to take a hammering this year even more than in Covid times with inflation and some shortages. I am planning on being more productive in the garden than last year (new pup in spring put paid to most plans then - but I can do things high up this year).

I see someone is getting an absolute bashing on AIBU for having the audacity to think about getting a few extra long life groceries each week.

It's the same replies that people give over and over again.

@RainbowZebraWarrior

People don’t seem to understand that for those with allergies and kids with ASD and/or limited diets it’s important to make sure we have a stock of things they will eat.

You're right @CatrinVennastin and @RainbowZebraWarrior - one of my DC is ASD and has a very limited diet. I'm trying to improve it but if (for example) the only vegetable he'll eat is peas, then for now I need to make sure I have enough peas! And it may get to the point where we have to stick to that diet for cost reasons - it's nice to buy/ make things for him to try, but if I know the likelihood is that he won't, then might we just as well save the money?! I don't know yet but we'll have to see how we're affected when the energy cap is lifted and the cost of petrol goes yet higher

In better news, I do have plenty of gardening stuff now, just need a reasonably nice day to get outside and tidy the garden and start the planting!

Our Taoiseach is talking about moving towards a wartime economy, and prices soaring. Plus the Department of Agriculture is asking cattle farmers to do tillage as well, despite not having the kit or expertise, because animal feed imports will be too expensive.

I'm really going to try hard with the home-grown veg this year!

Just been reading about the petrol and diesel prices potentially going sky high I mean I don't actually use my car that much, but it'll just be another cost to factor into everything - for example not just paying for the DC's swimming lessons but how much it'll cost to get there and back, etc.

There are a couple of little farms near us which are run as charities, they very much depend on money from visitors - I've always tried to support them as the DC love days out there, we can take a picnic etc and spend a few hours at each. But now I think... well should I just buy membership for one, if petrol's effectively going to cost me the same as another membership?! Which is sad all round - the DC would miss out, obviously the farm would miss out, but it'll get to the point where I can't justify the increased costs.

@UtterlyUnimaginativeUsername what does a wartime economy involve exactly? (apologies for being a bit dim here!) I remember my grandparents - who were newlyweds when the war started - always being very economical and 'make do and mend' types, I should have paid more attention to them!

Parents grew up in the war - they often talked about rationing
including fuel, emergency services, medics etc taking precedence, quite rightly; dig for victory and grow your own; didn't see an orange for years; black market luxury goods; darned on darned clothes; blackouts; air raid shelters; gas masks; evacuation to the country...

We've gradually been building up stores of wheat and flour alternatives that we have stored in food grade buckets and I think we'll be using them in the very near future now. We live in an area with lots of farms which we're grateful for and may be able to grow a little bit of food in the back garden in a mini greenhouse. One thing to bear in mind is that we're currently living on last year's crops and under normal circumstances they would be planting the fields now in Ukraine for sunflower seeds and other crops - many of the farmers are all fighting or have fled west though and the Russians appear hell bent on causing as much damage to infrastructure as they can so prices will he climbing already due to demand but it will be from the autumn on that it will be really apparent what this is going to do in terms of global food supply and security.

We can grow wheat, barley, oats etc in our climate and oil producing crops like rapeseed but this would require forward planning from the government and preparation now but since BJ is too intent on cosplaying Churchill I'm not holding my breath. I believe many farmers and other genuine experts have been warning him for a while (not the Eton elite who wouldn't know one crop from another if they fell in on their backsides).

We also have various other bits of kit we've slowly acquired - power banks, wonderbag (works on the old haybox principle), and wind up/solar radio ( you can also charge this from the mains). We can't put solar panels on the roof unfortunately due to the lease restrictions so I'm starting to look at other options. Two of our power banks are solar but they do take longer to charge even in the south west where we live. (Relatively decent amount of sunshine.)

I grew up in a very frugal household, I'm really not thrilled at the thought of having to live through it again. And I am beyond sad and sorry and angry on behalf of those younger than I am, or who don't have the chance or space or funds to prepare and store in advance. We do try to help local charities as often as we can but I can see there are going to be even more in need very soon.

Hello all,

I've been following the preppers board for a few years now, which enabled me to build a solid stash when covid struck. My husband mocked me (mercilessly!) for it, but has come to be the ultimate stash-cupboard champion.

We grow cucumber, bell peppers, leeks, tomatoes, potatoes, courgettes and carrots in the garden so fresh food is good. We are looking to buy a second freezer for the garage so we can increase our stash of meat and other items. I'm 7 months pregnant with #3 so would also like to do some meal preps and the extra freezer space will come in handy.

One of the key things I'd like to learn next is making bread. I have never tried so perhaps I'll be a natural talent, but also, perhaps I won't be!

I live in Europe, not the UK anymore, and for us fuel and energy prices are increasing too, but the government is bringing in some protections and lowering fuel VAT etc., so hopefully it won't be too bad.

@RosettaTheGardenFairy - I'm a bread making professional (literally was my job for a while) if you need any advice, let me know.

The very basic loaf that I do most evenings is,

500g white bread flour
Pinch salt
Pinch of sugar or honey
Sachet of fast action yeast
Mix together in a bowl

2tbsp oil and 300ml warm water
Mix into the dry ingredients until a dough forms.
Knead for 10 mins (it might seems sticky at first but keep going it will come together)

Prove for 1hr in a lightly oiled, covered bowl in a warm place (near a fire or radiator is good or in an oven that's just cooked a meal but is not turned off)

Knock back the air out of it, shape it and prove again for 30 mins-1hr and then bake in a 180 oven for 25-30 mins.

Cheap as chips to make using Aldi flour or seeing if you can but large 20kg sacks of flour can work out cheaper.

@TonyBravo thank you for the bread making tips! I keep thinking about buying a breadmaker (you can get second hand ones for around £10) but I'm not sure we'd get much use out of it, plus we have a tiny kitchen so if it didn't get used, it would be taking up too much of my precious worktop space but I might look at it again if the price of bread goes up as predicted

Thank you for your long post @Ttelracs ('cosplaying Churchill' made me chuckle!) - I've wondered before why we don't grow more of the crops we need as a country, is it a lack of planning on the government's part, not cost effective etc? Presumably we did do it (more or less) during the war, but now we're very dependent on other countries. Maybe it will be a boost for local farmers, which at least would be some good to come out of a gloomy situation...

We have a second fridge/ freezer @RosettaTheGardenFairy, mainly because we were given it by MIL when she upgraded hers - we thought we'd use it temporarily during Covid but have ended up using it permanently it comes in very handy for extra stocks of frozen veg, batch cooking etc and gin

My goodness, I say I'd like to learn to make bread and within an hour have a step by step guide from a professional - I love Mumsnet at moments like this!

Many thanks for the guide @TonyBravo, I shall give it a go this weekend. I'll start with the small supermarket bags of flour and if it goes well then the windmill in our village sells the large sacks. Do you know roughly how long these sacks last?

The freezer space used on storing loaves of supermarket bread is such a waste at the moment, so as well as the second freezer for more space, I'd like to get better at storing essentials rather than things like bread.

As well as bread making, my weekend will be spent going through the stash cupboard for an inventory check; I realised during Covid I had not meal-matched well, and ended up with lots of pasta and rice, but no jars or tins to bring it together. Luckily we could still go to the shops, but I'd rather my stash be more self-standing and not require top-ups, so need to be smarter this time.

I use a sack every 6 weeks aprox but I make 1 loaf everyday and then might make a pizza base or 2 for the freezer. Bread rolls for burgers and cinnamon buns etc so it's not just loaves and there is 6 of us in the house including 2 hollow teens.

In the last I've made a weeks worth of loaves on a Sunday and frozen them which works well but we don't have the freezer space anymore.

Thinking about all your thoughts - concerned that if farmers don’t plant enough wheat soon enough here it’s going to be difficult to offset the loss of wheat from global market as regards the effects on the uk. Equally there seems to be a bit in the press about potato shortages (just thinking about carbs here). I got the impression as regards the uk not having enough pickers in the fields last year farmers were going to plant less. If you’ve got this combined with the cost of energy/petrol/diesel surely uk farmers need govt intervention so they can afford to sow grow and harvest both cereals as well as fruit/veg. Given there is a lead time (ie plants take time to grow)surely intervention is needed now? What can we do as individuals?

Forgot to mention fertiliser. Also does that mean organic will cost about the same as conventional as conventional costs will go up (for all the reasons mentioned above)

Interesting thoughts @snowballupahill, I'm really hoping some government department has a contingency plan for all of this! In the meantime I'm hoping to get the DC out in the garden at the weekend planting potatoes we've had all the stuff ready for a while, we just haven't had any decent weather at the weekend for ages. Also hopefully all the gardening will warm us up and we can turn the heating off/ down to save on the no doubt massive bills coming soon

Over here (the Netherlands) I've just seen on the news that supermarkets are limiting purchases of sunflower oil + general cooking oil per shopper due to supply issues. 2/3 of ours comes from Ukraine and they expect supplies to dry up in 4-6 weeks.

Thankfully oil is one thing I significantly over-estimated on when I built up my Covid stash so we're okay for now, but I don't see how they'll plug the gap long term.

Thinking about power cuts, I am considering getting a camping stove, just in case (I once had a power cut last 5 days, it would have been horrible if I hadn't then lived in a house with a wood fired stove to cook, but I don't have that any more) and wondering if anyone has any advice on it. Should I get a gas one or an alcohol burning one (Trangia)? Gas would be easier to use as can turn on and off as needed but gas is obviously going to be getting more expensive now, so alcohol burning would be cheaper but not as easy to use (but at least DD has experience of using Trangia with Scouts). More expensive to begin with too.

@Natsku after being without power for 3 days in the last storm we are rethinking our cooking prep. We had a Trangia which was great. Used meths but we've now brought a different type of alcohol fuel which burns even cleaner so can be used indoors (still keep a carbon monoxide detector handy though).

We are lucky enough to have funds available so have also brought a Bluetti EB150 power station with solar panels that can run a 1000 watt electric camping hob. It's obviously fantastic too for recharging phones, laptops, running electric throws or fans in the summer. There are cheaper ones out there though so worth looking if funds allow.

As our "plan E" for cooking we've just brought an Ohuhu camp stove. It uses both alcohol and solid fuel such as sticks and twigs. Only £20 on Amazon. Spent ages researching it and it looks really good. We are also tempted to get a Kelly Kettle.

I hope this helps!

@Natsku forgot to add, we looked at gas but changed our minds because there's only so much you can store and the huge canisters are expensive.

Alcohol doesn't take up much room and you don't need much but if it runs out solar and solid fuel such as sticks and twigs etc are (hopefully!) unlimited.

That and because my husband and I are terrified of blowing ourselves up with gas!!