An interesting thread! What's particularly interesting is the range of views shown by midwives/hospitals in different areas, too.
One thing that hasn't been mentioned at all is the potential difference between first and subsequent babies, and any genetic link. In France, for example, a first pregnancy is presumed to be 41 weeks, subsequent ones 40 weeks - and my midwifery team seems to hold the same view.
I'm 41w now, and my MW is completely relaxed about it. She asked about my mother's obstetric history and on hearing that I was the first, and was 10 days late, laughed, and said 'better resign yourself to 41+ weeks then!'. I'm booked for a sweep on Weds, when I'll be 9 days overdue, and another on Friday, at 11 days OD ('because the first doesn't usually work'). I said that I was anti-intervention (and am booked for a homebirth) and asked the MW for advice and her recommendation. She said that she would advise a monitoring scan at 42w if nothing had happened by then, and a conversation/plan based on the results of the scan - which she said could be anything from 'immediate induction' to 'sit and wait, homebirth still ok'. If the latter, it would then be monitoring everyday.
Much as I dislike the thought of a) induction and b) a hospital birth, I have every confidence that all the midwives in my team fully support my position and wishes, and that they all want me to have a homebirth if possible. I think because of their attitude, if at any time one of them said that they would advise a change in plan, I'd definitely go with it. At the end of the day, they know better than I do, and I have to do whatever is best for the baby at that moment in time. I'm absolutely certain of my dates (I know I ovulated 18 days after a m/c at 16w, and got a +HPT 9 days after that - and the hospital has dated my pregnancy from ovulation date, since LMP would make me 58 weeks pregnant now). I guess there's not much else I can do apart from pray that this baby gets the eviction message!
Hobgoblin - really hope that everything has now happened for you naturally - def go with your instincts on this one and if you sense the MW is concerned, trust her!