Scan at 9wks...probability of all being well at 12wks?

[FlirtyThirty]

I'm having an early scan at 9wks (out of choice not mediacl need) because I'm travelling on a large family holiday at 9wks and will not get away with not drinking (vomiting constantly) without having to tell people. But, I don't want to say anything unless I've had some sort of scan to put my mind at rest that something is there...

However, I would normally not say anything until after 12wk scan.

So, I'm wondering...if all looks well (ie heartbeat, dates match) at 9wks...is it likley it'll progress to 12wks ok? I know there's no guarantees, I'm just wondering if anyone knows the misscarriage probability statistics by date...

Thanks!

With my first pregnancy, we went public with close family (parents, siblings) after our 7 week scan. With this pregnancy, we went public to family after the 9 week scan (also because of a family holiday).

We based our decision in part on the stats from http://www.miscarriageassociation.org.uk/information/ultrasound-scans/ the Miscarriage Association website:

Research has shown that if you see a heartbeat at 6 weeks of pregnancy, the chances of the pregnancy continuing are 78%.

A heartbeat at 8 weeks increases the chance of a continuing pregnancy to 98% and at 10 weeks that goes up to 99.4%.

Congrats on your pregnancy!

I think that once you have had a scan which shows a heartbeat at 8/9 weeks the chance of a miscarriage is very low - something like 5% instead of 20% or whatever it is early on, although other MN folk may know better.

Unfortunately I had a MMC last year at 13 weeks after seeing a HB at my 12 week scan, but the sonographer told me it was incredibly rare and we had been very unlucky - she said it was only about 1 in 200 pregnancies that failed after a HB had been seen, so I think if all goes well at your early scan definitely tell your family. Sounds like they'll guess if you're tea total on the holiday anyway!

My DH and I are having an early scan this time round, when I think I will be 9/10 weeks. If all looks well I think we will tell close family and a few friends - their support was invaluable when we were disappointed last time.

Good luck! The odds are massively in your favour.