What % votes do LIB DEM need to win outright?

[Cablepower]

Sorry to sound politically niave but I'm hearing how certain percentages across the three parties could lead to a hung parliament...but what is the tipping factor in terms of number of votes that would enable LIB DEMS to win outright?

See here
You can move the percentages of the parties around and see how many seats this could translate into. It looks like the Lib Dems need about 42% to get a majority, with Cons 35% and Labour 17%. Not very likely.

"The winning benchmark in this country is 326 seats in the house of Commons. The Lib Dems would need about 41% of the vote as said above but the Conservative and Labour's votes would have to drop to below 31% in order for the Lib Dems to win on that percentage of votes."

Taken from Yahoo answers

It kind of depends on where they gain seats as to what percentage they need to get an overall majority. If you click on

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8609989.stm

you can play with their election seat calculator. By changing the percentage of the votes cast for each party you can see the seats gained/lost on the right-hand side.

Hours of endless fun!! Yes I am sad and have no life

this website is fab and just what you need!

It shows you all the poll results and how votes translate into seats. You can twiddle the dial and see how each percentage affects the numbers of seats.

There is no clear answer to your question because it depends if the libdems are taking mainly labour seats or mainly tory seats, but have a play.

Essentially the lib dems need a lot more votes to secure a majority in the house because their votes are all spread out.

damn everyone got there before me

It's good fun though - and very interesting to see how the % change if you take the seats away from labour vs if you take them from tory or other.

The figures I've usually seen cited are 38% to gain the largest number of seats (although one analysis says 36), 40-41% for a majority and 42% for a landslide.

Once the Lib Dems get into the high thirties, seats start falling to them very quickly because of the positions they're in in the various constituencies.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who loves that website!

to clarify: your vote can be spread, but that very spread nature of it means that once you reach a certain point in the popular vote (the high 30s in this case) the spread nature turns into an advantage because you have a wider base for those new votes to pile up on. Does that make sense?

Thanks to all of you. These websites are brilliant. Can't help feeling that if everyone on Mumsnet pulled together and voted LIB DEM we could actually get them in and deliver proportinal representation. Then we would have a democracy....and if we didn't like them they could be voted out fairly. Is that political niavity or false hope? How much sway percentage wise could Mumsnet have? Go girls! Thanks again X

Still playing on this b**y website!

My first day on Mumsnet...
Have learnt lots about politics that I should probably have known.
Didn't feel embarrassed to ask a silly question....and feel better informed so thanks again.

Definately voting LIB DEMS now.

Have I mentioned that?

Signing out with kisses. XX

Cablepower - if everyone thought that the Lib Dems were the best choice for government then I suppose that everyone would vote for them!

Seeing as there are lots that believe that either Labour or Conservatives are the best choice then it isn't going to happen.

The problem with PR is exactly what they have experienced in NZ - since it was introduced there has always been a hung parliament, never a majority government. Historically hung parliaments don't work very well in Britain.

All that being said, I believe we have more pressing problems at the moment than attending to electoral reform.

Alibaba - How can you address 'more pressing problems' (or any problems) without a fair democratic voice? The electoral reform is a facilitation process not point scoring for of policy. And currently it does not work fairly in representing public opinion.

Personally I'd put environment alongside the economy because they should be interlinked. But we need politicians to work for us without personal agenda.

I suspect people are nervous about voting LIB DEM because they are not tried and tested. We say we want change but we lack the personal courage to vote it in. Back to the same old then?

PS Hung parliaments have worked very well in other countries...Germany for example does more than OK. But if we are going on what hasn't worked before...stick to the two old parties.

As a naive mum who claims not to know much about politics on the other thread, you seem well informed about political issues.

Politics is one section of a much wider website, so go and look. We can all make up our own minds about how we want to vote for without being prodded or patronised by the various politrolls appearing. We'll see how 'real' you are post election when you're posting in another section shall we?

hmm yes I agree with Scaryteacher.

Rather a change in tone from your OP.

If you are a genuine poster, cablepower, then do you not think that people who have bothered to research the exact tipping points for the various outcomes may be fairly well informed about the effect of PR and have considered the issue in relation to their vote?

And if you are not a genuine poster then please note that regulars are getting heartily sick of first time posters rocking up and telling us all how to vote as if:

1. we are so naive as to have not thought about these issues and
2. some anonymous proll on a website is going to suddenly make us slap our foreheads and reassess a lifetime's political affiliation.

These smug little lectures are doing the parties concerned more harm than good.

scaryteacher - same tone as 'Grigsy' who was so enamoured of all things Labour on those other threads!

Wouldn't surprise me if it was Ed Balls telling us to all vote tactically.

What is this? School ground ganging up on the new girl? Or blood brothers? Is there an initiation test to get through too? Why the character assassination?

Truth is...I have not meant to patronize. Yes I've tried very hard to prod undecided voters to vote LIB DEM. If I worked for them I'd be singing Clegg's praises....but I think he's no different to the other two. On the other hand,Vince Cable won my heart on Question Time many years ago.

I watch the news and feel manipulated, read the papers and feel manipulated....every body's at it. Prodding and persuading. I read a book last week about the economy because I want to understand a bit more for myself. I do not want to waste my vote and did not have your conviction or knowledge.

I do feel politically niave when I asked the question about voting percentages. But friends and family, they didn't know either...and I'd consider them more knowledgeable than me. So it's great that you did your research. Many haven't bothered or are so switched off they can't be bothered to vote.

I am not trying to persuade anyone to change their votes. But some undecided people might choose to come to Mumsnet for some guidance and reassurance. That was my motivation. I thought it was a forum for exchange of views.

You did help me make my mind up...but why the vitriol?

Do I have to log on to another site to prove I'm a Mum?

Nope- just post on the rest of mn, then we'll see.
If you really are a mum, you'll have an opinion on formula feeding vs breast feeding; parent and child parking spaces; attachment parenting vs SWMNBN routines won't you.
please join in... we don't bite much.

this map lets you play with the SNP, plaid and 'other' parties too.

no vitriol at all - where was the vitriol?

I was just pointing out that you stand a much better chance of influencing people with your opinion if you don't come across as a one trick pony.

If someone takes the time to listen to me across the full MN spectrum then I'm more likely to care about their opinion, vs someone who rolls up at the 11th hour and tells me they'd like my vote but aren't offering friendship, advice or fun in return.

And forgive me if I find it a little odd that so many alleged parents decided to join a parenting forum solely to post about their political affiliation. You would have thought that being parents they might have decided to post about - oooh - kids or summat first?

'Yes I've tried very hard to prod undecided voters to vote LIB DEM.' Prod too hard on MN and we prod back harder. The majority on here seem to have made up their minds how they are going to vote; and you won't change them.

If people are undecided then seeing your disingenuous posts aren't going to make them vote Libdem. We get that you're a Lib Dem politroll Cablepower (the name is a bit of a give away), and I for one am getting tired of you lot popping up; patronising us and advising us. We are all grown ups and can make our own decisions.

The Crack Fox - this one has better syntax than Gigsy, but is about as subtle.