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Original poster

Okay - who has any predicitions for this election?

36 replies

JollyPirate · 11/04/2010 19:06

There must be some really clever people here who know and understand all the polls etc.

So - what are your predicitions for this election?

Will the Conservatives win it? Or do they need to win too many seats (as I have heard)?

Are we destined for a coalition government?

What are your thoughts?

OP posts:
DidEinsteinsMum · 12/04/2010 00:17

no matter who gets in there will be some scandle pertaining to corruption.

Election manifesto will be mostly ignored.

Whoever wins is unlikely to win the next election unless there is a national win fall and the economy does un heard of things.

not sure that is quite what you meant though

mrscynical · 12/04/2010 00:29

Doesn't matter who gets in. We're all fucked!

Debt/deficit too large to handle. Married persons tax, Surestart, NI, school choice etc. etc. is of little consequence.

Fasten your seatbelts ...

KatharineFlute · 12/04/2010 00:33

Hung parliament. Lets face it - they should all be hung

ooojimaflip · 12/04/2010 11:18

It will almost certainly be on may 6th.

Original poster
JollyPirate · 12/04/2010 14:40

Definitely on May 6th

I am a bit with mrscynical though - whoever gets in we are all f*cked!

OP posts:
LeninGrad · 12/04/2010 15:06

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

choosyfloosy · 12/04/2010 15:12

Tories with a majority of 28 - 35 seats.

Leadership election in in the Labour party.

Original poster
JollyPirate · 12/04/2010 16:08

Oh I think there DEFINITELY needs to be a leadership election in the Labour party.

OP posts:
choosyfloosy · 12/04/2010 16:12

that's my prediction not my wish necessarily

[pontius pilate emoticon]

daftpunk · 12/04/2010 16:16

Tories will win, they are taking seats from Labour in London (if the polls are to believed)...no way Labour will win a 4th..

People are dying for change....

Jaquelinehyde · 12/04/2010 16:17

Labour win by the tiniest of margins. Renewal of faith in Brown, however, a new Labour leader will be elected before the next election.

daftpunk · 12/04/2010 16:21

You seem very certain for someone who doesn't have a clue

Original poster
JollyPirate · 12/04/2010 16:48

The governement will win - they always do.

Seriously though - William Hill are prediciting a Tory win and apparently have never been wrong when it comes to a General Election.

My thoughts are that the current lot have become very sleazy and corrupt much like the Tories did after their long reign. Time for change I think although the LibDems always win here.

OP posts:
WetAugust · 12/04/2010 17:21

If the Tories win then Gordon gets the sack.

If Labour win then Gordon gets the sack in 6 months time.

policywonk · 12/04/2010 17:27

The great thing about this election is that nobody knows for certain what will happen. Today's YouGov poll, for instance, puts Labour just 3% behind. (Not saying that it's necessarily correct, mind.)

Hoping for a hung parliament myself.

choosyfloosy · 12/04/2010 17:34

I'm pretty certain (although I have no special knowledge, apart from the doomed feeling in my stomach). Am thinking about putting a bet on for the Tories at around 30 seats. Especially because nearly everything I bet on falls at the first fence

policywonk · 12/04/2010 19:26

Yes I'm feeling a bit gloomy too, choosy. But MrsBaldwin posted a good link the other day to a Reuters poll that seemed to show that the Tories aren't doing as well in the key marginals as everyone had been thinking.

choosyfloosy · 12/04/2010 19:33

sorry pw i don't believe it. marginals are the marginals from the previous election. a bigger shift in voting behaviour will create a new pattern of marginals. (sorry if that sounds like i think you don't know this - am just explaining my thinking!)

LeninGrad · 12/04/2010 19:34

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

LeninGrad · 12/04/2010 19:35

This reply has been deleted

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choosyfloosy · 12/04/2010 19:35

as in the latter years of the major government leningrad - there is massive horsetrading for every vote

but not stall exactly - just the government has less chance of winning the vote

gypsymummy · 12/04/2010 19:37

Not that it will mean much change to us all in the true sense of the word but I get this feeling the Tories will win only because people in general want some form of change and it is human nature to do so and as the options are narrow , it is my guess they will either win or we will have the hung parliament issue

choosyfloosy · 12/04/2010 19:37

well you can build defences at the previous high tide mark, and even put them a few feet further up the beach, but if the flood is strong enough the defences aren't going to withstand it

LeninGrad · 12/04/2010 19:37

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

policywonk · 12/04/2010 19:38

No, I didn't know that choosy

Len, I think it just means that the government loses the vote - unless it's a vote of no confidence, in which case the government would fall. In practice, MPs from opposing parties have a twinning system when majorities are very tight, so that if MP from Party A can't vote because of unforeseen circs, MP from Party B is honour bound not to vote either. Weird but there you go.