Okay - who has any predicitions for this election?

[JollyPirate]

There must be some really clever people here who know and understand all the polls etc.

So - what are your predicitions for this election?

Will the Conservatives win it? Or do they need to win too many seats (as I have heard)?

Are we destined for a coalition government?

What are your thoughts?

pw sorry when I said 'know this' it sounded as if it was some sort of huge edict! it's just an opinion! marginals are worked out more scientifically than that i'm sure but i still think that the results never actually follow the pattern of alleged 'marginals', there are too many other factors.

Oh OK. I will go back to my relentless Pollyanna-ish thinking then. And you can pick up the pieces on May 7th and tell me I should have known better

the queen decides who to ask to form a government, based presumably on advice on which party is likely to be able to make a deal on a coalition. she invites that leader to the palace and he/she says whether they can form a government or not. if not, the other one gets a go, and if nobody can form a government, we have another election.

I think that the previous incumbent is given first dibs at attempting to form a government. Not sure though. The civil service has been frantically drawing up memoranda for all these possibilities.

Tories maybe but by the tiniest margin
think hung parliament preferable, mostly curious as to what would happen

Have a look here

The Director of Research at the Electoral Reform Society (ie an elections-expert-with-a-big-swingometer-type-person) predicts a minority Conservative administration in a hung Parliament, extrapolating from previous elections.

He says some interesting stuff about how the Lib Dems tend to pick up support over the course of an election campaign because the rules re political balance mean they get more media exposure.

He also mentions that in 1974 the Lib Dems had not a campaign bus but a campaign HOVERCRAFT! Did they REALLY?? Did anyone SEE THIS?

Could Mumsnet get its own hovercraft?

BTW - what is that dodgy looking scarf the ERS guy I link to abovee (Lewis Baston) is wearing in his picture byline? He needs some fashion advice from Style & Beauty methinks.

re the hovercraft the 70s really were another world

there's a fabulous Labour poster from (I think) the first election of 1974, showing doughty British workers, management and politicians (all of one gender and race - guess which) sharing a joke together - message is, we are tough but tender, we are modern, we are negotiators, we know how to get things done. From a 2010 pov all the people in the poster look almost grotesque - the teeth at a challenging range of angles! the hair (or lack of!) the skin, apparently both pasty and muddy! the manly paunches on all concerned! the clothes! it's both sad and funny that a picture like that would simply be impossible as a political poster now. it doesn't seem that long ago to me but it really looks like another era.

it's in roy jenkins' autobiography but i've never found it online unfortunately.

lol at hovercrafts and challenging teeth

Will read blog link tomorrow MrsB, I'm two G+Ts down.