Has Andy Burnham ended up as PM somewhat under false pretences?

[Imdunfer]

Please note that this is from a left wing Labour supporting paper.

It turns out that the marvellous redevelopment of Manchester that was the central plank of his credibility to become PM was triggered by the fall of Mubarak in Egypt in 2011 and what were effectively, or previously close to, bribes set up by the then Tory government to retain our massive defence contracts with the Middle East.

The owners of Man City, recently found guilty of breaking well over 100 financial football rules, are heavily involved. UK developers were excluded from access to large development contracts. Man City was sold a deal including the naming rights to the stadium, owned by the council, for £750k a year when professional rights brokers estimate the market value to be between £10m and £15m a year for the name alone.

The question is, did a local Mayor with no experience outside politics and only a tiny amount of experience of cabinet roles, (3 jobs in 3 years), get to be Prime Minister without a challenge on the strength of the development of the centre of his city that he actually only had a small part in creating?

https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2026/oct/25/thats-the-way-the-city-works-how-the-uae-changed-the-face-of-andy-burnhams-manchester

Exactly. YouGov isn’t the only polling company around, though you would think it was the way some posters take it as gospel.

I think it’s human nature to believe the polls with the results you want. It’s like the insistence that an election is imminent when objectively it’s highly unlikely.

It’s called wishful thinking. The reality is that a general election is likely to be some way off so polls aren’t really all that significant at this stage.

Focussing on a single positive poll out of context is a fools errand - any gains need to be consistent over different polling companies and create a trend over time

One swallow etc

Glad I was clearer, I would never claim to know what works for the electorate as a whole. We’d all be Prime Minister if we could say that with confidence!

Personally, I’m really happy to see the Conservatives doing slightly better. I would much rather see Reform wiped off the electoral map altogether. Interesting that the analysis from YouGov seems to suggest Conservatives making gains from the Lib Dem’s - I really hope the Conservative leadership pay attention to that and it guides them to the centre, rather than further right.

The only poll that really matters is the one on GE day.

Speaking of elections, where is the best place to follow the mid-terms? Fingers crossed that the US does the right thing. Although Trump might go completely berserk.

He will definitely go berserk, especially if the Republicans lose both the House and the Senate! The question is how will that manifest itself?

Would we notice the difference if Trump went berserk?

I have one to the Guardian as well as the Telegraph, do you mix your sources at all?

I also think it is refreshing but I'm on the fence whether it's political naivety or a thought through strategy. Time will tell.

He seems hyper aware of what is said on SM anyway, so it’ll be interesting if he does start to lose the positive TikTok vibe, and how he deals with that.

I personally don't think it's political naivety - Andy Burnham is an incredibly experienced politician, and also I think he is someone who (for all his criticisms of Westminister) genuines relishes the art of politics. I do think that as a strategy, it may have been slightly dictated by his relationship to the Hillsborough families and therefore to the Sun. There is no way Andy Burnham would be pandering to the Sun, and so, I think it natually follows that he doesn't pander to the right-wing press more generally. I do agree that it remains to be seen whether it will pay off though - it definitely has its risks.

I think Reform are on their way out.

Reform's only hope, I think, is that the current uplift in small boat arrivals continues. Why is that not on mainstream news, taking the last few days figures it's as bad as it ever was, with them clearly using a new supply of much stronger boats, and now launching from both Belgium and the Netherlands with nearly double the normal number waiting in the camps. This alone could make it break Burnham.

But Kemi, I think, has probably provided a credible alternative to Reform for those whose voting motivation is illegal immigration. If she can pick up enough Reform voters, she'll be back in contention.

Agree with all of that.

She's doing alright. Loved her Sauvignon jibe to Rayner. Although I would have gone more Blossom Hill.

Yes agree with this. I wouldn’t count out Reform yet but Kemi is looking strong. Burnham can go for ignore this issue and see but I don’t think it’ll work.

There were a few posts re Kemi getting it wrong re slavery reparations, I don’t think that’s the case. Going by reaction and headlines re poll.

Re what's going on around Europe will be keeping Reform in with a chance. The threat of similar happening here is always going to put more pressure on this weak government.

That's not really borne out by polling companies research/focus groups - the big issue for the voters drifting away from Reform is the 'financial irregularities' of Farage/Reform not fluctuations in small boat numbers. A year ago Reform were 10 points ahead of Labour - now that is almost reversed and the steepest part of their drop off is from the Spring when Farage's £5million 'gift' was exposed. There are several ongoing investigations one of which is unlikely to be completed before the next election providing persistent corrosive 'bad news' on a weekly basis

The ex-Reform voters are disillusioned by the taint of corruption and unlikely to return

I think there's a very big difference in saying that voters aren't leaving Reform because small boat numbers have dropped and what I was saying which is that voters might stay with Reform if small boat numbers are obviously rising again and it's clear that the government does not have control of who is coming to live in this country.

And I did say it was their only hope.

My personal view is what I said, they are on their way out.

Tend to agree the evidence points to them being on their way out - but lets not tempt fate

Dissatisfaction with small boat numbers [which are actually reducing] might keep their loyal base but won;t repair the reputational damage and bring back the many many voters they have lost in the last 12 months

They have reduced this year while the supply of boats was disrupted. It's very clear that there are new and stronger boats coming from somewhere and the numbers this weekend were atrocious.

Absolutely. I try to avoid the Guardian if at all possible because it’s usually treated with derision.

But it's not about the numbers this weekend - it's about the trend over the last few years which is undeniably downwards

Focussing on a bad few days is the same as cherry-picking one-off favourable polls

You're smart you know this

That's how it goes. There'll be a strategy countering the new boats. And since the Netherlands and Belgium are now involved, closer collaboration with the EU is more vital than ever.

It's not that simple. The trend this year is down because they managed to choke off the supply of boats and the launchings from France for the short route on flimsy boats.

The numbers this weekend were back to a 50,000 a year rate if they start again with the spring weather. It is absolutely clear on pictures and particularly on video that the new boats are an order of magnitude stronger than the old ones and they have been leaving from beaches with a much longer journey because they can cope with it. They are now spending up to 30 hours at sea.

On top of that there are currently estimated to be 3800 people in the French camps when 2000 is the norm at this time of year, so the supply of migrants has not dried up.

It is too soon to know whether there is a downward trend or not, it may simply have been a downward blip. And even if it is a trend on the boats, just how long do you think it will be before the people making millions from this vile trade are going to fit lorries with whatever they need to avoid the human cargo detectors?

If we open legal routes to the genuine refugees the economic migrants will still come in through illegal channels.

This isn't going to stop until we stop what draws them here.