Concerns about US military escalation and potential UK fuel and food shortages

[dwordle]

It looks like the Americans are finding out that if you start enough wars you'll eventually start one that doesn't go your way.

Spending 10 billion US dollars per day and running out of missiles, it's fast becoming apparent that Trump did not really have a plan.

Trump talks of negotiations but it's highly likely that this isn't the case and this is a tactic to give the military the time to prepare for a ground assault.

Trump calls this a special military operation and is careful not to use the word war. War requires congressional oversight.

It's highly likely this conflict is going to get a lot worse which raises the prospect worsening produce and fuel supplies. I believe we are two weeks away from shortages.

Ok

Nothing good is going to come from this that’s for sure. People are just doing the usual and burying their head in the sand and hoping it all goes away. Trump cannot win this war. He is furious that his allies haven’t come to help, but I’m glad we’ve kept out of it. He needs to accept he has fucked up and Iran is now richer and more powerful as a result.

It’s really out of most people’s control.
So similar to Covid times, stock up your pantry to avoid pointless mini trips.
plant a few basics in your yard; rhubarb, chives lettuce.

Petrol stations round here are already running out of fuel, the Costco petrol station is always rammed, is it panic buying or shortages?
luckily I only have short commute but we’re going on holiday next week & need to fill up to drive to/from the airport & getting slightly concerned

I think Trump is backing out. He's looking for an excuse to end it.

The shortages at the moment are the result of panic buying, the problem is European supplies will run low in two weeks.....

It takes two to TACO (if you know you know…) Iran has been very clear it’s not letting the US out of this and that’s before even considering Netanyahu.

He needs to accept he has fucked up and Iran is now richer and more powerful as a result.

How are they richer and more powerful ? Whoever is supplying them with drones and missiles will want paying ?

Apparently if this goes on for another two weeks we are in the realms of food supply shortages as fertilisers need to get through. Not an expert on this so don’t know whether that’s true.

Yes heaven forbid we run out of Rhubarb and chives…

well rhubarb is super easy to grow and doubles other stewed fruit volume (apple rhubarb, berry rhubarb etc) for cobblers pies or simply to put on oatmeal and yogurt. you can also cook with rhubarb in place of celery in stews and soup. chives again can be used raw or cooked so cuts down on the need to go to the store for onions. need to shout out to swiss chard!! raw or cooked can be used in place of spinach and it's really tolerant.

I'm a prepper and have no worries at all about petrol or food running out. In fact I have zero prep done for this conflict.

No trouble with getting petrol near me. The only problem is paying for it. The way I'm getting round that is avoiding all non essential costs bar entertaining the kids over Easter. From that point of view I have little stress. From world politics POV I have zero control so again not worried.

so your cia and have full detailed knowledge of all the objectives etc ? i love how the public think they have any idea about what is being achieved and the objectives etc

Unusual.

im also a low level prepper. More of a “be prepared” type. I’ve done two large shops of staples. I have a large log store in case we struggle to get oil (oil heating). When my supermarket delivery came last night the delivery guy said all he’d been doing for the past few days was very large “stocking up” deliveries.

He also said they had run out of petrol three times this week. It’s really thrown out their resupplyiing processes.

Where abouts are you? I'm south east. Seen no queues for petrol at all since this war started. Seen no empty gaps in the shops. My prep is still only for power cuts and snow. I can't prep for no petrol so I don't try to. There's no work around viable for me as I have a old big Zafria. I'm topping up a few times a week but in all reality a full tank will only last me two weeks max so it's pointless. I'd just stop driving when I got to my last 50 miles. I think I still have pasta in my prep so no one is going to starve but I haven't felt any real need to prep beyond water cuts, power cuts and snow for ages.

Because they’ve gone from controlling a fifth of the oil in the Middle East to all of it and they are now controlling the shipping lanes into the bargain. They’ve also shown themselves to be militarily superior with powerful allies. It’s also strongly suspected that they are enriching uranium which is why Trump bombed them in the earlier campaign but unfortunately intel showed they didn’t damage the enrichment infrastructure which is why the second campaign happened.

So they are still enriching uranium and are now richer and more powerful. What a fuck up.

Midlands. Supermarket in a large market town. Our village petrol station has had lots of queues.

At the moment, what you need to be aware of fuel for your car isn't a priority. They will ration diesel and petrol to preserve essential supplies. People getting to work or going on holiday isn't seen as a priority.

This is unlikely to affect gas as this is largely piped in through Norway. But due to the impact on LNG there will be some impact because Asian markets rely heavily on this. Remember if costs go up in Asia then the impact on the Northern Hemisphere will likely be impacted through rising prices elsewhere.

30 percent of food and medicine comes through this region and the supply chain has now been interrupted....the effects will be long term and hard felt. Food prices are predicted to rise by 50 to 300 percent depending on the produce. Medicine has already entered into a bidding war...so the impact for health services will be severe.

The global economy is very much connected, something as big as this had big implications for now and for years that follow.

Let's not forget Americas debt pile and this war will likely increase it substantially. And who owns trillions in treasury bonds ....

Trump needs to just back the fuck up. He is in acceleration plan 4 or 5 now by talking about putting boots in the ground, hence why the Houthis have stepped into the arena.

I think your approach is unusual for a prepper. This conflict has the potential to affect us significantly.

Im not worried yet. The weather is getting warmer, evenings are lighter, less need for power and things are starting to grow in the garden. But I’ve topped up staples whilst the prices are still relatively unaffected and I’m certainly planting more potatoes, tomatoes, peppers courgettes etc.

Fortunately whilst we have oil heating (and are running low) we have solar and batteries and an electric shower and car.

Saudi Arabia (via Aramco) exerts the strongest conventional control over reserves, production capacity, and market influence in the Middle East.

I think I'm just burnt out of living in fear. Every shop in the entire UK could shut for a month and we wouldn't go hungry in my house. I go through periods of running my prep to zero anyway to avoid things going out of date.

I have a battery pack that can rin the fridge and freezer for three days,three days of water. Endless candles and light sources. Many tins and a full freezer. So nothing new. Maybe I need to visit costco this week.

The thing is I'm rural. If I can't use my car I'm pretty screwed. I would literally have to go to the shops via train with a back pack. That's not going to work either as we have 4 kids.

Err where will the oatmeal and yoghurt come from to accompany all this rhubarb......

The UK has restarted a mothballed factory in the NE to mitigate this.

I am a bit worried, I’m anticipating rationing of fuel and shortages in about a month’s time. The Times is a good source for reliable news I’m finding. I’m presuming that the government will focus on key areas such as schools/NHS/energy, that home working where possible will be encouraged, the use of public transport encouraged. I’m going to do a bigger than usual shop this week on non-perishable items- because if nothing else, the price will certainly be going up and we are keeping our cars brimmed. Trump really knows how to F things up.