Ukraine and Russia

[dwordle]

I'm getting increasingly frustrated by NATO, Russia is constantly testing our resolve and despite our threats there's only one thing Putin will understand and that's a real show of force. NATO is the strongest force on the planet but what let's this down is our inability to make a decision.

We have pledged support for the Ukraine and the conflict is largely due to NATOs presence around the borders of Russia. So it's only right we step up and offer military assistance....even if it's just naval and air force....that alone would like tip the balance in Ukraines favour and force Putin to at least pause it's conflict.

The conflict isn't due to NATOs presence near Russia. Russia has always been an expansionist, problematic state. Ask the Chinese.

I agree but we gave them an excuse, I think Russia had taken the opportunity multiple times, Crimera, funding militias etc. But I think while NATO appears tactically strong our inability to make a unified response to these tactics has left the door open to Russia.

At what point do we actually step up and offer real support.

It's the same as Russian spy ships....if we honestly think they are a threat....sink them. Russia can't respond and wouldn't dare respond but while they think they can do it....then they will keep on doing so. If they see it as a declaration of war then let's have it because they have their hands full and I will guarantee you one thing, countries like Poland will happily put pressure on Russia.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

NATO offering "real support" would be a declaration of war against a major nuclear power. Given the individual in charge of that country I doubt many people think that would be a good idea.

Quite.

I do agree. But Ukraine was promised defence in 1994 by the US, Russia(!) and the UK if it was attacked. I do think we've messed up there. But for obvious reasons of self-preservation.

Why would you want a wider and potentially nuclear war?

You do realise military assistance would involve young British people getting killed right?

We are also a nuclear power and a member of NATO....this isn't about attacking Russia and more about removing Russian threats and helping the Ukraine remove the invaders. We are already at war with Russia and Putin has made that very clear

Maybe there are parts of the Ukraine under Russian control that may prove challenging to regain but the idea the Ukraine should roll over and accept a deal made by the yanks and Russia quite frankly is disgusting and a huge betrayal.

We need to show the yanks we actually don't need them and go it alone and put some muscle in where it's needed. Air and Naval Support for example.

Russia is weak, it can't afford this war and it's crippling their finances. Now is not the time to roll over

NATO can’t just sink the espionage ship because it remained within the EEZ - it never crossed into British waters. Russia is absolutely allowed to do this; it’s just not in the spirit of international co-operation. If NATO were to sink it, we would technically be the aggressor and trigger conflict with a nuclear power.

Russia knows exactly what it’s doing. The lasers are potentially deniable too. They constantly goad and goad and goad, knowing that NATO can’t respond militarily without triggering a wider conflict.

I don't think you realise how bad things are. We are in no state to get involved.

We have 130 warplanes, about half working at any time.

The army has no artillery as we gave it all to Ukraine. We have about the same number of tanks as we have generals.

We have 20 or so warships with about one quarter of those working at any time. We have more admirals than ships.

We have not managed to successfully test launch a nuclear missile for over a decade. The last test nearly killed the defence minister when the missile failed and narrowly missed the aging sub that tried to launch it.

In addition we have no air defence missiles at all, so Russia could take out our entire energy network in under an hour.

Don't beleive the financial BS put out by the media here. Russia can afford the war, their financial deficit is about 3% (ours is 5.7% and rising). Their debt to GBP is under 20%, ours is 110%. The Russian economy is growing at 4% ours under 1%. Taxes wise most Russians pay 13% (rather than 20% here) their top rate is 23% (vs 45% here).

We have state of the art radar, we intercept all the time. We have surface to air missiles stationed all over Britain.....and we also have miles of water and land between ourselves and Russia.

We are still one of the most powerful countries in the world and Russia can't even replace it's depleted tanks.

Right now Russia wouldn't win a war with the UK while it's fighting the Ukraine.....

The bigger question is how China would react given they have currently some sort of alliance with Russia. While they wouldn't want a war with their main markets (the West) we dont know whether they might want to take the opportunity to assert themselves militarily or take Taiwan while Europe/US/NATO is distracted.

Slightly giving WW3 vibes....

Don't all members of Nato need to agree? So including the US?

No ..we can attack a non NATO member as long as it's legal. Spy ships etc are more than enough justification to take action....sink them.

Can Russia afford the war? Isn’t a reason for the growth because of the war?

They can afford it more than we can, that is all that matters in war.

When the Russians realised the war wasn't going to be short, instead of appointing a soldier to be Defence Minister, they appointed an economist.

If we go to war without an industrialised economy things are going to go very wrong, very fast.

Russian economy isn't growing, complete the opposite. The UK has nearly 200 active fighter jets, two air craft carriers, 150 battle ready challenger tanks, 100,000. Nearly 10,000 elite troops, 20,000 front like troops.

That's just the British.... Germany, France, Poland, Ukraine,

Russian economy is smaller than Spain, its economy is on the verge of collapse.

I admire your principles, OP, but Ukraine isn't the hill I want to risk nuclear war over.

NATO is paralyzed for so long as Trump (or a Trump-like figure) is in office.

NATO cannot do anything unless all members approve, and the member most resistant (or rather, dead against) is the US - and given they are the largest military power and economy, its not as if European nations can meaningfully pressure them.

The US-Russia backed Surrender Treaty is an attempt to extort Ukraine and the rest of Europe. The former for its sovereignty and minerals, the latter for hundreds of billions of dollars.

Quite why Trump is always so ready to align with Russia/Putin, we can only speculate, but we also know his Vice President (and potential successor) is very anti-Europe on ideological grounds.

I don't think people are yet grasping how dire Europe's current position is. Our once greatest ally is - at best - an ally no longer. At worst, it is hostile.

Europe deserves some of the blame for allowing itself to become so dependent on the US for its own safety, and not spending adequately on defence but, ultimately, it was never going to be able to protect itself from a US heel-turn.

All Europe can really do is try and play the waiting game, so much as possible, in the hope that the US returns to normalcy at some point (while investing as heavily as possible in defence).

I’m fed up of people so eager to send our military to fight in a war that’s not ours. Maybe if you had family members in the armed forces you’d feel differently, for me it’s a hard no, Ukraine has had enough help from numerous countries and still haven’t achieved anything except a luxury billion dollar ski resort.

Yes, I agree. I wish they'd stand up and act.

:(

If the UK and EU declared war on Russia, I expect that the US would immediately withdraw from NATO.

That would mean the UK and EU needing to triple defence spending, just to cover the loss of US support. To maintain a war, we'd probably need to at least quadruple. All to say - enormous and sustained tax increases.

Replacing the money, though, is actually the easier part. Replacing the US's technologies is much, much harder. It's not just aircraft, air-carriers, missiles, nuclear defences and alike - it's satellite systems for early warning, surveillance, GPS, etc. Developing the technologies and manufacturing them would likely take at least a decade or two.

We have become prisoners to our own reliance on the US, and warnings should have been heeded. Recent increases in defence spending are meaningful, but nowhere close to adequate to fill any US-shaped gap that may arise in the near or medium term.

The waiting game is really all we have, and Ukraine will pay the price first. They might be the last.

True. I’ll just go back in time and speak to my grandfathers who fought in WW2 for the allies when it wasn’t their war. Front lines - the full duration.

I’m so fed up of people that forget that while no one wants war sometimes you fight because it’s the right thing to do.

It's the same as Russian spy ships....if we honestly think they are a threat....sink them

For goodness sake 🙄

First of all, NATO evidently doesn't believe Russian spy ships are enough of an issue that they require sinking. Doing so would be tantamount to a declaration of war in any case, since even if they are illegally in your territorial waters and they refuse to leave when prompted, the next step is to apprehend them, not sink them and murder their notionally civilian crews.

Secondly, NATO has had "spying" HK subs stationed permanently outside every significant Russian naval base for decades, doing pretty much exactly the same thing that Russia's fleet of trawlers and "research" vessels does. NATO does it covertly, Russia just doesn't care about the fact they are brazen.

We are already at war with Russia and Putin has made that very clear

Putin, famously renowned for being a beacon of truth and as honest as the day is long.

We are not at war with Russia. This is nonsense.

We need to show the yanks we actually don't need them and go it alone and put some muscle in where it's needed. Air and Naval Support for example

Well that would certainly be one way to ensure we do actually get into a hot war with Russia.

Right now Russia wouldn't win a war with the UK while it's fighting the Ukraine.....

Slight problem there, is the UK is in no fit state to be fighting a war with Russia either, and it's a fools errand since the UK is in no way capable of defeating Russia either.

No ..we can attack a non NATO member as long as it's legal. Spy ships etc are more than enough justification to take action....sink them

They are really not.

You are correct that in the likelihood the UK committed yet another egregious act of stupidity and provoked a live conflict with Russia, the vast majority, if not every single other NATO member would likely just ignore Article 5, but more than that, there would likely be significant agitation for punting the UK from NATO entirely, given that we've just demonstrated we're essentially a rogue State who can't be trusted to behave ourselves.

So the net result is the UK is in a hot war with Russia, has practically no reliable allies, is entirely missing the NATO logistical support UK armed forces are wholly dependent upon to do much of anything beyond sit in barracks and peel potatoes, and not only that, if Putin decides at any point that he's simply fed up of it all and fancies turning a UK city or two into a sheet of glass, absolutely nobody is going to bother riding to our rescue and risk conflagrating it into a full nuclear war by helping us nuke him back

The Baltic States are completely and utterly screwed if Putin turns his attention toward them, because NATO is not going to get into a conflict with Russia for the purpose of protecting Estonian, Latvian, or Lithuanian sovereignty. Likewise, it wouldn't bother it's arse about a rogue UK State deciding it wants to have a go at Russia and it's allies all by itself. And yes, Russia does have a few friends, believe it or not.

Given that the UK would lose NATO logistical support and likely have trouble convincing NATO members to permit a non-NATO member to use their territory for the purpose of prosecuting a war vs Russia, what are you proposing to do? Shift the entirety of the UK's deployable armed forces to Ukraine, assuming Zelensky even consents to this?

"we"... Are you planning on joining the trenches? I'm not supporting staying ww3 with Russia in Ukraine just because USA says so.

This is why I think under the same pressure NATO would also crack . Nobody stuck to that agreement what makes anyone think that NATO would step up. For example in the event of a tactical nuclear weapon used on a NATO state I would bet anything the US would immediately say they were putting the world first by not retaliating and then they’d distance themselves as they are in a position to do so.