American Conservative here. Long post. Probably not worth reading. You have been warned.
Here is my take on all that has gone and all that is happening. I do not pretend to have any special insight, but I come from a large purple western state that went for Trump, and I like to ask people questions. Please do NOT infer that I voted for Trump... or that I even voted at all.
Here is my objective view.
First, though: This notion that the only people who voted for Trump are either uneducated white hillbillies or "fascists" is ridiculous. It was exactly that sort of scoldy name calling that played a role, I think, in Harris losing the election. I believe that the political middle simply got sick and tired of hearing that. "If you don't agree with all we say, you're either an idiot or a fascist or a racist or...". I know many well educated, well grounded, down to earth people who voted Trump. They are neither stupid nor "fascists". To reduce Trump's win in November to being the result of stupidity or right wing fascism is simply following the same tired old trope that, as I said, in part, cost Harris a victory. I would drop that line of thinking. It's a lazy oversimplification. Trump made significant inroads into the BIPOC electorate and that would be hard to do for someone perceived as either an "ist" or "phobe" of one kind or the other. I know gay people who voted for Trump. I know at least two trans people who voted for Trump. I know a guy who came to the US illegally in the '90s and he's the biggest Trumper I know. It's just not that idiotically simple to pin down what a Trump voter is.
Second: Felony convictions. No one I know, right or left, believes in those. Everyone I know, right or left, sees those as nothing more than unprecedented Banana Republic style lawfare by a weak, feeble and failing President Biden attempting to use the courts to take out a political opponent. That's all anyone sees that as. Every time Trump got indicted, his poll numbers went up. It was a horrible strategy by the Biden administration and backfired badly.
The Biden administration seems to widely be held as a complete failure. I can go into details if anyone is interested. Harris inherited that mantle. She ran a horrible campaign. I can go into details about that as well.
Whatever the hell Trump campaigned on, he will move heaven and earth to deliver. I believe that. I think it's just part of his psychological makeup. He HAS to be a winner. And being a winner means making it all come true. Then he can say, "See? Told you I could do it. I'm the only one who could do it. I'm the best!" One of the things Trump ran on was ending the war in Ukraine. So, in Trump's view, he will by-God end it. Doesn't matter what apalling Oval Office spectacle it takes. Doesn't matter if it means having to stroke Putin's dick. Trump said it and therefore it MUST happen. That is how I see Trumps mentality.
I believe Trump sees the rest of the West as basically using the US as a money tree. Hence the reciprocal tariffs. The US, as I understand it, has about a $50 billion trade imbalance with Canada due to Canada charging US companies tariffs while, in return, getting a free ride from the US. By all means, fact check that. I could certainly be wrong. Trump will in no way, shape or form tolerate the perception (or misperception) US being economically taken advantage of. It's not in his make-up. It would be intollerable.
NATO, the EU and the UK: In 2017 Trump was within an inch of leaving NATO. People had to be sent to Europe (where he was at the time) to talk him off that ledge. Trump sees NATO partners as parasites who have steadfastly refused to meet defense obligations while relying on the US taxpayer to foot the bill. Given Vance's speech in Munich, I also think he sees the EU as abandoning foundational liberal democratic principles. If he thinks those two things are the case, I can see him questioning the value in having an alliance with Western Europe. I can, however, see him abandoning Western Europe to its fate. Or, hell, it is Trump afterall, manipulating Western Europe into towing the line.
I don't know many Americans who have any clue that there was a "special relationship" between the US and the UK. I don't know many Americans who have ever given a single thought, in their entire lives, to the UK at all. I work with all sorts of Americans: White, black, Hispanic, Asian, American Indian... you get the picture. Most just swim through their small lives like all of us do. They worry about their kids' educations, whether or not they can afford a ski boat, should they go to Mexico to see family in April or wait til June? Stuff like that. Ukraine, NATO, Israel, Putin the Canada tariffs or the insecurity of the UK... all white noise to them. Irrelevant.
Finally near the end: The US Federal government does not work like many on this forum seem to think. Trump does not get every little thing his own way just because the Republicans have both Houses and the Supreme Court. The Dems can absolutely filibuster in the Senate and block any and all legislation (lucky for them they didn't kill the filibuster like they talked about doing). The Justices are rabidly independent and many's the time MAGA has gone nuts because Gorsuch or Barrett or one of the other Conservatives have gone against the MAGA narrative and sided with the Liberals. I read a lot of case law, and I'm often astonished at the 9th Circuit (a notoriously Liberal Federal Appeals Court) when it has rendered a "right wing" decision. (Sidebar: I read a post on this forum decrying "politically appointed judges". That, for me, was rich. Coming from someone who lives in a country where ALL judges are appointed (think there's no politics in that?) All of my State judges are elected. All of them.)
Where Trump has power is over all of the Federal Agencies. They fall within the Executive Branch of the government and he is the Caeser of that branch. He also controls the State Department. That means, short of declaring war (takes an act of congress) he sets the tone and says what's what when it comes to international relations... more or less, congress and the courts have some say in some of it.
Well, if you made it this far, congrats! I doubt I would have. Remember, this is just one American's opinion. America is huge and the diversity of opinions on all of this reflects that size. I am one person, as I said, in a large purple state who likes to know what his fellow citizens are thinking. I don't really have a "bubble" of like-minded folks I only speak with. I like to get all sides. However, talk to an American from, say, Manhattan and you could get a completely different and equally valid take.