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Politics

US Midterms

38 replies

CaveMum · 01/11/2022 11:09

Just wondering if anyone else is keeping an eye on what is happening across the Pond?

US Midterm elections next week and it's looking like the Republicans will take back control of the House which will make it incredibly difficult for Biden's administration to get much passed. The Senate still looks deadlocked too.

Of course, we know that polling can be wrong. Where's Joey Lucas when you need her?!

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CaveMum · 01/11/2022 11:14

Brief summary of the Midterms, taken from the BBC:

The US midterm elections decide the make up of Congress, which has two parts:

The House of Representatives
The Senate

Both of these chambers sit in Washington DC, in a building called the Capitol.

There are 100 senators - two for each state - who sit for six-year terms. The House of Representatives is much larger, with 435 members that represent smaller US districts. They sit for two-year terms.

All House seats and one-third of Senate seats are up for grabs on 8 November.

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noodlezoodle · 01/11/2022 19:04

I'm in the US and watching intently! Although a lot of the polling is swaying Republican, there's some evidence to suggest it's not correct, and certainly polling in places like Kansas (where abortion restrictions were on the ballot) suggest there are a LOT of angry women out there who are ready to vote Democrat. (Fingers crossed).

Angry Staffer on twitter is excellent and quite comforting on this.

samyeagar · 01/11/2022 20:49

History indicates strong headwinds for the Presidents party, even when the president is relatively popular. Obama lost both the house and senate in 2010.

I think it is almost a certainty that the republicans will take the house, and there is a reasonable chance the democrats will hang onto control of the senate.

Moving beyond the midterms, the democrats really need to get their heads out of their asses and figure out why they are struggling to win. Hell, even now, coming off of a historically unpopular and polarizing president Trump, the democrats have the slimmest majority ever in the House, and there are actually more elected Republicans than Democrats in the Senate. There are 50 republicans, 48 Democrats and 2 Independents, and the only reason the democrats have control of the senate is because the Vice President casts the tie breaking vote. The democrats really need to get their shit together.

CaveMum · 02/11/2022 09:31

Glad there are others watching. It’s definitely going to be interesting to see what happens, particularly given how bad Biden’s numbers are.

As you probably guessed from my OP, the sum total of my US politics knowledge (regarding how it all works) comes from The West Wing!

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Abhannmor · 02/11/2022 19:15

Trying to educate myself on US politics by looking at fivethirtyeightcom . They successfully called most recent elections. A fun site too.

sweatyannie · 03/11/2022 16:56

I'm intrigued and headed over from the West Wing thread.

The politics fascinate me. ... mainly because I have no idea !

Here to learn !

CaveMum · 03/11/2022 18:00

An interesting Q&A thread on the BBC here: www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-63497994

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CaveMum · 04/11/2022 09:52

Listened to Americast last night. They commented on the gulf of personality between Biden and Obama, who has been out stumping for Democrat candidates in the tightest races.

Looking at FiveThirtyEight, the tightest Senate races are in:

Arizona
Georgia
Nevada
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

In Congress, they are projecting the GOP to take back the House. With 445 seats up for election, the tightest races are:

Alaska
California 22nd
Michigan 3rd
Nevada 1st
New York 19th
Pennysylvania 7th
Pennysylvania 17th
Rhode Island 2nd
Texas 15th
Texas 34th
Virginia 2nd

As far as Governors go (36 up for election), the tightest races are:

Nevada
Oregon
Wisconsin

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CaveMum · 07/11/2022 14:02

Almost there now!

Estimated that 40 million early votes have already been cast.

Polls still suggest that the Democrats will lose the House and the Senate is too close to call.

If the Republicans do take the House, the new Speaker is expected to be Kevin McCarthy, Congressman from California who has previously served as House majority leader 2014-2017, and is currently House minority leader.

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Quartz2208 · 07/11/2022 14:06

DS is massively into this (particularly likes the Ohio race between Tim Ryan and J D Vance) and it is tight. Pennsylvania was looking ok but John Fetterman's issues post stroke make that one more of a knife edge.

Modelling has Democrats at a 45% chance of keeping the Senate and 55% losing

Abhannmor · 07/11/2022 14:14

I like fivethirtyeight.com. Nate Silver is very droll and they seem to know their stuff. Mid terms are always bad news but the recession doesn't help the Dems.

CaveMum · 08/11/2022 14:11

Here we go! I wonder what the odds are that it'll end up with a lame duck Presidency? Pretty short I'd guess.

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CaveMum · 08/11/2022 14:14

Also meant to say that if anyone listened to the BBC podcast "The Coming Storm" which looked into the QAnon conspiracies around Trump et al, they've dropped a new podcast this week. Fascinating stuff.

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Abhannmor · 08/11/2022 14:31

Sadly I think so. The cost of living / inflation is going to hurt the Democrats. Biden is not the most inspiring Potus either.

samyeagar · 08/11/2022 14:40

Abhannmor · 08/11/2022 14:31

Sadly I think so. The cost of living / inflation is going to hurt the Democrats. Biden is not the most inspiring Potus either.

I think more specifically, it is the lack of empathy and playing down to the point of dismissal, people's concerns about cost of living and inflation. As with so many things, acknowledging and validating someone's fears goes a long way. Certainly goes a lot further than dismissing them, and saying it is just a scare tactic from the other side. Especially when people can see prices with their own eyes and feel the financial squeeze every single day.

CaveMum · 09/11/2022 07:28

It’s going to be very tight! The Senate is currently:

Dem - 48
Rep - 47

5 races left to call

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Abhannmor · 09/11/2022 08:10

Not the disaster I dreaded. Roe v Wade being overturned has hurt Republican candidates and stopped a big wipeout.

CaveMum · 09/11/2022 09:29

Pennsylvania flipped!

Two key votes to watch are Georgia and Nevada. If the Dems hold Nevada it’s likely they’ll retain the Senate, just.

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CaveMum · 09/11/2022 09:30

It’s looking like Georgia will have to vote again in a few weeks.

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CaveMum · 09/11/2022 09:31

House votes so far (213 for a majority)

Dems - 173
Rep - 198

435 seats up for election

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Abhannmor · 09/11/2022 13:38

Nevada, not looking great...though less than half counted. Arizona and Georgia more hopeful.

CaveMum · 09/11/2022 18:18

Arizona looking like the Dems have a small lead.

Nevada looking like the Republicans are in front.

Georgia looking set for a run off in a few weeks.

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Quartz2208 · 10/11/2022 15:37

I am hopeful though this may be the end of Trump running for 2024. I dont like Ron DeSantos but at least he is young and worked his way up the political ladder!

CaveMum · 10/11/2022 17:23

I’m hoping that Trump will consider anything other than a “bigly” win in the Midterms as a personal affront and refuse to play with the other kids come 2024.

A bit like Boris withdrawing from the leadership contest.

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Maggiethecat · 11/11/2022 16:16

Nope, his bigly ego won’t allow him to back down.
Hopefully the Americans won’t have the stomach for another term of his toxicity.

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