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Politics

How do you think Brexit is going?

37 replies

Pebblespony · 02/05/2018 19:00

Let me start off by saying I'm Irish. I only know what I hear over here & it's nearly all about the border issue, which seems confused. I don't get any of the UK papers or watch UK news. Just wondering how most people in the UK think it's going?

OP posts:
LOVELYDOVEY05 · 04/05/2018 15:56

Very slowly partly because that is the nature of the beast. All these regulatory matters can take years. The EU is not behaving particularly well either. For example they are refusing to take on board our service industries especially the financial ones stating they are separate from other industries which is rubbish as it makes up most of our economic activity.
But I think the main problem is GB does not seem to have gone into Brexit with any agreement of what sort of deal they want. There should have been a plan before the referendum so that problem areas like Ireland could have been looked at before

AsleepAllDay · 10/06/2018 16:15

It's such a labyrinthine topic but it feels like the government is pulling teeth. I don't think TMay is in a position to deliver any of it and she is in danger of being thrown over any day now. Her authority is completely stripped away & she is holding on because the thought of a Corbyn government is scaring her party more than her achieving anything. She is totally lacking a spine & I expect the EU to wipe the floor with her

TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince · 10/06/2018 16:17

It’s giving me awful awful anxiety😭. I don’t know wtf will happen, but it feels dangerous and out of control.

Childrenofthesun · 10/06/2018 16:27

Shit. Particularly at the current moment when America is ruled by a loon and Russia is rearing its head again.

The only possible way it could have worked is to be in EEA and customs union, which is what had been widely talked about prior to the referendum and is what most people expected leaving the EU to be. In fact, I'd be willing to bet 95% of the people who now tell you they definitely voted to leave the customs union hadn't even heard of it at the time.

Personally, I think EEA membership is inferior to EU membership but it is the least damaging option and would have fulfilled the mandate of the referendum (such as it was). It is inexplicable that it was immediately taken off the table. I blame Nick Timothy, who I am quite sure was behind the "Brexit means Brexit" guff.

Childrenofthesun · 10/06/2018 16:32

they are refusing to take on board our service industries especially the financial ones stating they are separate from other industries which is rubbish as it makes up most of our economic activity

To operate financial services within the EU you need financial passporting rights which you only have if you are a member of the single market. It is part of the legal and regulatory framework and this was well-known and publicised prior to the referendum.

Metoodear · 12/06/2018 20:45

I think the sabbotors are trying very very hard

And labour has a ever changing position

If I hear one more time demrocay is only valid if the right answer is given I might puke 🤢

Spinflight · 17/06/2018 03:49

The public perception is very badly indeed.

In actual fact the important stuff is getting done.

Bear in mind two points, no deal does not mean no deal and... no deal has always been almost a certainty.

By the former I mean the minutiae and mind numbing bits and pieces that don't make the headlines. Which make up the vast majority of the 'negotiations'.

The media narrative is that no deal means catastrophe, though the actuality is that these details will have been agreed and will be implemented whether the Art 50 negotiation achieves anything or not. I'm not talking about the big stuff here, the customs union and ECJ etc, I mean the small but significant day to day stuff. Which is probably 90% of it.

By the latter, that no deal has always been a certainty, I have to explain that the negotiation isn't a negotiation...

We signed up to the EU treaties which basically bound us to consider the EU's wider interests above our own. As part of this the EU commission sends rules and regulations for our civil service to gold plate and implement. In fact they spend the vast majority of their time either implementing new rules and regulations or enforcing them. In other words our civil service effectively works for the EU commission most of the time, though they are badged as working for the Crown.

Hence the 'negotiation' is effectively the EU commission arguing with... itself. As the CS is bound by the terms set by the treaties, rules and regulations. And have gone native anyway but that's another matter...

Confused yet? You should be.

Only once the Withdrawal bill is signed do we have a legal framework to actually negotiate on our own behalf. By which point it will be too late.

The reason being that any agreement has to be ratified not just by the EU's own parliament but all of the various parliaments around Europe. About 30 all told.

The problem the EU face is that this will take time as many of the parliaments are schlerotic, and is almost certain to fail. There is no 'we disagree with this bit so renegotiate it' it will be a simple yes or no. Italy's new government for instance would almost certainly vote down any supposed deal alone ( they are doing the same to the trade deal with Canada, hence the EU's panic), though do the maths and you quickly see that getting everyone to agree is at best unlikely.

Monday will be interesting as Trump's moves to oust Merkel will start bearing fruit and our own House of Lords will have some tough choices to make.

I suspect there will be an appetite within the tory party for a new leader very soon, though the electoral calculus doesn't point to another remainer government.

AsleepAllDay · 18/06/2018 04:16

Feels like the PM is spending more time trying to avoid revolts in her party than actually forward planning for negotiating with the EU. I think when all the major newspapers have said it's a shambles... it's a shambles

Monty27 · 18/06/2018 04:45

I am NI living UK for many years and have a lively interest in political here.
My answer to your question op is that I don't think Brexit is going to happen any time soon.
Thankfully

Monty27 · 18/06/2018 04:51

*not Blush

lonelyplanetmum · 18/06/2018 06:16

How do I think it's going? I don't normally swear but..

Clusterfuck (plural clusterfucks) .A chaotic situation where everything seems to go wrong. It is often caused by incompetence, communication failure, or a complex environment.

At the end of the day nurturing trade with your neighbours is logical. It gives a natural advantage and makes profound sense.
Neighbouring trade is rational and a peace facilitator especially when there has been conflict in the past.

The market on our doorstep has worked very well for the U.K. leading to us being the fifth strongest economy, although that is now falling.

Perceptions of unfairness arose fostered by laughable fictional journalism because our own successive governments have failed to internally distribute wealth as they could and should have done.

We have now potentially cocked up the fragile situation in NI. We have definitely smashed the cosy position we had of unfettered access to the vast market of 500 million consumers. The European Union is the second largest economy in the world in nominal terms with a GDP of €17 trillion. It's the world's largest single market with a safe legal investment and regulatory framework that we helped create, draft and grow.

By fostering neighbouring 'proximity' trade, any state increases overall exports, international integration, peaceful relations. ( Google articles on proximity trade.)

We have fucked all this up mostly because of stirring by the (now disappeared) UKIP. This was fuelled by a relatively small but loud faction of the Tory party which has tried to put a sticking plaster over their internal disagreements for decades.

How do I think it's going? Nightmarishly, horrifically and horrendously.

SoaringSwallow · 18/06/2018 07:38

Badly.

TheMonkeyMummy · 09/07/2018 16:09

......

actuallyquitesmall · 09/07/2018 16:15

The word 'shambles' doesn't quite cover it.

JaneJeffer · 09/07/2018 16:21

Doesn't seem to be going too well at the moment .

I feel very sorry for the people who didn't want it but were voted out by clueless idiots.

actuallyquitesmall · 09/07/2018 16:35

The clueless idiots are in the House of Commons, Jane.

It doesn't matter which way the referendum went. Like it or not, this is a democracy and the majority vote is the one which stands. MP's are then charged with putting that into practice. They are the ones who are cocking it up.

WhollyFather · 09/07/2018 16:59

JaneJeffer I voted out, and I would again. I'm not a clueless idiot and probably know rather more about politics, economics, the EU, Brexit etc. than you do.

I won't be rude about you for not sharing my opinion because I'm too grown up for that. Perhaps you could consider following my example.

BrittW · 09/07/2018 17:44

David Davis resigned because apparently he was being frozen out/sidelined. It is said that Treeza took a draft of the proposal to show to Merkel before she discussed it with her cabinet. Don't know if that's true, but if it is .....

Those who voted Leave voted that way for two main things: curb EU immigration and regain governance over our justice system. The Freedom of Movement of mostly MENA immigrants with European passports is the biggest challenge to us in terms of space and services.

It's not clear whether this will continue, but I think it will because there's so much pressure on Treeza to please as many factions as possible.

But what we have today is mostly not having an ace negotiator, someone who has spent years neg. for big stakes at high level. The fear-mongering shifted the powerbase away from GB. A micro example - If you phone up Virgin Media to give notice that you are leaving them and they start to say that you will never find a better deal anywhere else, and if you leave now you cannot return to us in the future, what are you going to do? Stay because of the threat, or get out now.

JaneJeffer · 09/07/2018 17:49

probably know rather more about politics, economics, the EU, Brexit etc. than you do. Maybe you do but seeing as I don't get involved in political debate on here I don't know what you are basing your assumption on.

TheMonkeyMummy · 09/07/2018 18:27

No need for name calling. I think it's better to listen to each other's concerns.

But I guess we are all in agreement that it's currently a bit of a balls up...

ConstantlyCold · 09/07/2018 18:40

I think it’s going as well as it possibly can - ie omishambles

abilockhart · 09/07/2018 18:47

BrittW, you know that it's Theresa, not Treeza.

But then again you do seem a bit mendacious about many things.

BonnieF · 09/07/2018 18:53

It’s difficult to imagine how it could possibly be going worse.

The government is a complete dysfunctional shambles, and is now falling apart. Theresa May is likely to face a leadership challenge, which will almost certainly result in open civil war in the Tory party, which may well split.

The opposition's Brexit policy very similar to that of the government, which at least 90% of Labour MPs believe will be a disaster for the country. Most of those same Labour MPs represent constituencies which voted Leave, however, so they feel they have to support Brexit.

The civil service are making a complete mess of negotiations with the EU, probably deliberately as they are opposed to Brexit.

Apart from that, it’s all going great Grin.

BrittW · 10/07/2018 08:38

To be called mendacious by a Useful Idiot is not so much an insult as a confirmation that they continue to walk among us. They have eyes but cannot see ..... and all that.

abilockhart · 10/07/2018 09:40

Oh dear, BrittW. No understanding whatsoever.

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