How is brexit going to affect Ireland?

[Spinflight]

Given that all sides appear to be nicely committed to a frictionless border, even if the EU will face some problems with its existing treaties, what of the other effects?

For instance will Ireland join the rest of the EU in forming an army?

With their fishing rights in our waters entirely revoked and the Spanish fleets agitating for increased quotas in the Irish waters how will this affect the rural parts of Ireland?

Lidl and Aldi are both based in Ireland but will no longer be able to source their goods and especially their agricultural produce without paying huge tariffs..

Apple too is based in Ireland but will face large tariffs to access the UK market.

Worst of all I imagine Amazon is also based in Ireland but surely wouldn't be able to compete on price. Gawd knows how many billions worth of trade this amounts to alone.

Also what of the preferential corporation tax in Ireland that the EU wants to 'harmonise' which would mean doubling it. Under the qualified majority voting how long can the Irish alone hold out?

What, to counterbalance all this, are the positives?

Anyone?

The thread seems to have taken a bitter and nationalistic tone, which is unfortunate. That I don't accept the narrow characterisations painted should be obvious.

Yeah, nothing nationalistic about the leave campaign was there? Our borders, Our jobs, Our laws, Our sovereignty etc.

What then, changing track, are the likely advantages for Ireland inherent in brexit?

Potential for businesses to relocate or set up. Other than that effects likely to be negative. And that's before you get onto the north.

No, can't think of any likely advantages. It's looking pretty shit.

DD knows sweet FA about Ireland. And there have been informal discussions- one of which was when the British government tried very hard to stop the EU agreeing to Ireland's proposal that in the event of a united Ireland happening as a result of any referendum in the future, NI would automatically be in the EU. I don't see a UI as as result of a disastrous BRexit for NI as being a positive either btw. There is enough of a mess in Brexit for ROI to deal with without adding an expensive and politically charged Union with NI to the mix.

What advantages do you think there might be for Ireland?

The only thing I can think of is a rebalancing of the European Parliament.

Losing circa ten percent of the total votes makes the remaining ones worth more.

I haven't done the likely electoral calculus to see whether the piigs plus a bit of Eastern European support could change the direction of the EU, and it's merely a rubber stamp anyway.

Still, could have a positive effect and prevent some of the shenanigans of the past.

Thing is though Ireland is in a zugzwang. Even should the Irish people decide they'd like to leave it is impossible. Wouldn't surprise me if merely resolving the target2 debt would result in a nigh on £100 billion bill. That's in addition to sovereign debt, and how it would be denominated.

They're completely stuck.

Right, so now that a Brexit domino effect failed to take hold on mainland Europe, leavers now shift towards Irish fall out. Desperate.

Quite the opposite ghost.

I'm saying that Ireland can't leave, even should they wish to.

Do you have evidence Ireland wants to leave? The north voted to remain. Brexit has solidified support for the EU across Europe as they see what a cluster fuck leaving is.

I expect post actual brexit the problems Ireland are bound to face will result in a desire for change. This however isn't limited to Ireland, or to brexit.

More broadly there is a worrying trend within the western world, a dynamic that is potentially very dangerous.

Governments of all colours and creeds have willingly given up power, whether that power has flowed to supranational bodies such as the EU, multinationals, industry bodies, corporate lawyers, markets or the media doesn't actually matter.

This however has never been adequately explained to voters, hence when things go wrong they expect the government to do something about it, though often they are either totally powerless or too slow to react.

Hence rather than further globalistion, corporatist dogma or devolution the recent trend is toward statists. It's a very strong trend with relative newbies being able to make a link, in a Farage sort of a way, between this powerlessness of the establishment / government / evil multinational and a certain privileged disdain for the ordinary problems of the voters. The newbie claims a virtue from their untainted status, by being uncontaminated, and promises to fix the problems that 'they' don't care enough about.

Corbyn and momentum are excellent examples of this, but so is Trump. It really isn't a left right issue, it's a statist versus globalist one. The swingometer appears to have flipped very rapidly, so much so indeed that it has caught most political wonks with their pants down.

So whether Ireland or the other piigs at some point voter disenfranchisement will likely lead to a virgin candidate, probably as we saw in France with a new party, promising to cure the economic ills with enhanced state control. Its notable that there is barely a strong government in any of the piigs which rather magnifies the effect.

Meanwhile the actual governments, having given away too much power, are almost sitting ducks.

It's a strong trend to the return of the nation state in short, which leaves bodies such as the EU swimming against a very strong tide.

Macron is centrist so it's neo liberal status quo. The far right populists have been defeated in mainland Europe. Brexit Britain and trump's America will be neo liberalism on steroids. Ordinary folk will be the losers. There is no revolution in populism it is merely the elites solidifying their power.

I hate to interrupt whilst you howl at the right wing moon but you've entirely missed the point.

Macron is another example of this phenomenon, whilst previously in government he very much played down his role, and swept to power with an entirely new party.

Shouting at the populist devil is rather one dimensional don't you think?

Nope, populists dress themselves up as anti establishment when they are anything but.

Macron might be new but it will be same old, same old. Pragmatism wins here.

The populists had five minutes of fun with trump and Brexit but the game is up.

Spinflight

Based on Macron's views, I have to agree with you, based on what went before.

Presiden Macron is a reformer, both in France and in the EU, as France has just rejected socialist policies, with both the left and far left getting under 10% of the votes or parliamentary seats, I can’t be ‘asked’ to look which as both suck.

Macron has recognised socialist policies were dragging on the French economy and looks more like a Conservative administration; as pro business (looking to LOWER Corporate Tax), make Euro 60 billion of budget cuts, cut government workers by 120,000 and promises to reform restrictive labour laws holding back their economy/investment/job creation.

In the EU he also recognises the current problems and has his own solutions, which is MORE Eurozone, for those in the Eurozone, and screw everyone else – which combined with his domestic policies – is all quite radical in my eyes.

“Macron urges greater euro zone convergence - presses Germany to act”

”Macron, elected in May, has called for giving the euro zone a single finance minister and a common budget - a proposal that has been met with caution by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and suspicion in Berlin that German taxpayers might be left having to shoulder common debts.”

"I have never reproached Germany for being competitive," Macron said in the interview. "But a part of German competitiveness is due to the dysfunctionalities of the euro zone, and the weakness of other economies."

”German business newspaper Handelsblatt reported on Wednesday that the finance ministers of Germany and France planned to present a roadmap for the harmonisation of their countries' corporate taxes at a joint cabinet meeting on Thursday.”

Yeah we've really fucked things up for them haven't we? Sorry, Ireland.

Oh I suspect we'll take care of them squishy.

We know how much whingeing would really if we don't. ducks

The uniform corporate tax idea has done the rounds before Thea, but theres just no way theyll pass it through. The logic being that it levels the playing field, but states that do indeed need to attract huge corporate investment, corporate tax is the only way to do it. Hungary (Ive not checked but read something this week I think) is looking to go to 9%. They are desperate for investment. Whilst it all looks cushty for Germany to drop to a uniform level of say 22%, can you imagine the impact on the likes of Ireland, Hungary etc being forced to raise 10%/13% respectively?

This is just hot air again that raises its head every so often when they need to get the 'toddlers' in line. EU power house flexing its muscles at its unpleasant and bullying worst.

"Take care of them" - that sounds more mafia than you probably meant it to, Spin....

Well, we're used to being fu*ked over by the tories so we'll just add it to the long list of whinges...

Good summary of NI issues here including confirmation that CtA only applies to roi UK citizens.

www.economist.com/news/britain/21725012-nobody-wants-hard-border-which-might-include-passport-and-customs-controls-yet-there-no?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/howahardirishbordercouldreturncourtesyofbrexit

Carolinesbeanies

While that new article does mention the way forward via one of those 'roadmaps', only one up from 'whenever', I wouldn't underestimate this renewed drive to a Eurozone convergence, or the influence of Macron - as even IF, repeat IF, he bombed on domestic policies, he'd be looking for his legacy in the EU.

As to lower Corporate Tax within the Eurozone that would cause a problem for harmonisation, how much does the UK raise from Corporate Tax, somewhere just north of £60 billion a year, so how much would it cost the EU coffers with 'a bit of cash wee here, a bit of cash woo there', to compensate the likes of Hungary with the size of their economy, so they fall in line?

Ireland would need a lot more 'wooing' lol, but you get my points, that one day should they be the only one left, their will be a face off and as we see with Barnier, they don't play nicely, especially if for 'the (federalist) cause'.

Oh I suspect we'll take care of them squishy. We know how much whingeing would really if we don't. ducks

Fuck off with your imperialist bollocks.

I assume youre refering to this bit in that article usuallydormant?

"Most people will no doubt continue to move freely across the border, but the CTA applies only to British and Irish citizens."

Tut tut tut The Economist. This is incorrect and naughty reporting. Whilst the CTA yes only applies to British and Irish Citizens, the CTA area, has become a "free movement zone" for CTA AND EU citizens. I'll explain.

The CTA is currently supported in legislation in all participating countries. The legislation that applies in UK law, is section 1(3) of the Immigration Act 1971 and the Immigration (Control of Entry through Republic of Ireland) Order 1972. These originally gave all Irish citizens exemption to any immigration controls. The right to simply walk in.
In 2014 Article 4 of the 1972 Immigration order was replaced by an exemption for EEA/ Swiss nationals and their family members (can I call them EU citizens for ease of typing?) who have a right under EU FOM .

Now that was the very very important bit, the Economist writer has disregarded. Let me be clear, under the Immigration (CoEtROI) Order 1972, Article 4, 2014 ammendment, all EU nationals can indeed enter the UK from the ROI without any immigration control (showing of passports etc) . They can just walk in.

All our other borders, airports, ferries, eurotunnel, etc do indeed enforce immigration control and passports and proof of EU citizenship at the point of entry, and why the ROI since 2014, have acted on our behalf controlling entry into ROI because from that point forward any EU national can just walk on through.

The legislation on the ROI side is under their Immigration Act 2004. Everyone who is not Irish or British is classed as a 'non-national'. Any non-national (and this is what applies to the current invisible border with NI) that arrives by land, must obtain immigration permission within 1 month of entry. EU nationals arriving by land must have their passports/valid ID, just as they would entering by air or sea. They may be asked to produce these. (There are currently numberplate recognition and cctv cameras on the Irish /NI border)

In the IOM (who is not a member of the EU) they accomodated the CTA to cover EU citizens by their Immigration (EEA) Regs 2009.

The channel Isles (trade only arrangement with the EU) accomodated the CTA amended their European Communities Law 1973 to accomodate EU citizens.

etc etc etc

From the EUs side, the 'CTA' was covered by Protocol 20 of the EU Treaty. Protocol 20 allows the UK and Republic of Ireland to ‘continue to make arrangements between themselves relating to the movement of persons between their territories (‘the Common Travel Area’)’.

(The EU have no juristriction over the IOM, Channel Isles etc hence not included in the EU Treaty)

In short, because of the difficulties of the CTA when the soft border was agreed, and the conflicting EU 'freedom of movement' rights, participating countries in the CTA extended the same rights of CTA entry to EU citizens, irrespective of whether that country was a member of the EU or not. There is no reason whatsoever, why EU citizens dont retain their rights to travel to the UK under the CTA friendly UK legislation. No reason whatsoever. The IOM, Channel Isles etc etc have already accomodated EU citizens within the CTA, theres absolutely no reason why the UK wont do the same.

They are and will always be welcome to visit the UK. Brexit is not a banning of europeans from visiting the Uk. Brexit is changing the terms of those visits.

Lets assume a 'hard' Brexit line. An EU citizen will not be able to stay for longer than say 3 months, they will not be able to live here (unless residency is applied for under normal immigration rules etc) and claim government support. They will not be able to work here. None of those things require a hard NI/ROI border as the ROI already control immigration at the point of entry (and keep out those naughty EU citizens who arent eligible to FOM. It works.

There is however, always the possibility of non-EU citizens inadvertantly breaching immigration rules by crossing the unmanned NI/ROI border. Heres what the NI Law Centre said about it.

" Callers to our advice line are often surprised to hear that, while the CTA is a “free movement zone” for CTA and EEA nationals, it is not so for other nationals. This lack of awareness can result in people committing an offence by crossing the land border. In some cases, this can lead to detention and removal. Clearly, this brings with it a high human cost as well as the economic cost of immigration enforcement. "

Current immigration control works.

Coming back to your article, there are 2 premises that the writer is stacking his 'high risk of hard border' argument on. Trade and people. Trade, hes basing it on TMs current stance of no customs union. That is absolutely not going to be the case as I explained why regards VAT earlier. Its not just me being an optimistic 'leaver' making up arguments as I go along, its the reality that a/ for both the UK and the EU, its free money and a lot of it, but b/ TMs stance is quite simply one of negotiation in that we do indeed have the right to stop VAT. In one fell swoop we can reduce our import costs from the EU by 20%. Thats a massive amount of money to negotiate with. Would you like your new Merc to cost 20% less overnight? Of course shes sticking to her guns at this stage.
The position over people, well they just wont discuss it yet. The EU have set the agenda and so be it.

These highly emotive articles are going to be rammed down our throats for the next 12 months. Its spin. Its fearmongering, and theyre utterly unfounded.

"As to lower Corporate Tax within the Eurozone that would cause a problem for harmonisation, how much does the UK raise from Corporate Tax, somewhere just north of £60 billion a year, so how much would it cost the EU coffers with 'a bit of cash wee here, a bit of cash woo there', to compensate the likes of Hungary with the size of their economy, so they fall in line?"

In theory , sort of Thea, but in reality no.

Cuts in Corporate Tax, historically more than make up for any loss of revenue from the cut, by generating new revenue streams. However, and this is why the EU big hitters want harmonisation across the zone, a corporate tax race, from a harminised EU, will then only benefit those 'big hitters' in the EU. By ensuring the tadpoles in the EU cant impact the 'race' (by doing their own thing), like Hungary, Ireland etc, (and why Im highly interested in the 3 seas initiative specifically) in the event of a global/UK/EU corporate tax race, 15 of the EU states would end up an utter corporate wilderness. No amount of subsidies or 'bungs' will make up for that.

This is where the UK being a 'sole' trader, comes into its own. The UK will absolutely manoeuver on this one regards the banking industry etc and the EU recognising thats coming, need a combination of the 'big 3' to counter it. The rest of the EU would be collateral damage. It is shit or bust time, but the EU are clearly wanting to line up their lambs for slaughter.

Caroline

Very good points.

I forgot the economic 'multiplier' of lower Corporate Taxes, and how useful a competitive tool lower Corporate Tax can be when needing to attractive more companies to your shores - especially if countries in the west want to attract jobs currently in the likes of China - when as their 'costs' of production including pay rates grow, investment/jobs there, it will make sense for companies to bring production back to somewhere in the west.

Don't forget the second industrial revolution Thea.

Firstly people assume that production is all about labour costs. Not any more. The modern way is to use automation, which is capital intensive but results in high efficiency.

Indeed Chinese firms are increasingly investing in the UK.

Foreign investors are looking for many things, and the UK has them all in spades.

@ Spinflight "Oh I suspect we'll take care of them squishy. We know how much whingeing would really if we don't. ducks

You do know the empire is no more, don't you Spinflight? It might do you well to remember that the days of talking down, dismissing and patronising the Irish are well and truly over. Brexit hasn't happened yet and there may come a day when you will be mighty glad to have some friends across the Irish Sea.

Completely agree Kofa. Delusion of empire.