How is brexit going to affect Ireland?

[Spinflight]

Given that all sides appear to be nicely committed to a frictionless border, even if the EU will face some problems with its existing treaties, what of the other effects?

For instance will Ireland join the rest of the EU in forming an army?

With their fishing rights in our waters entirely revoked and the Spanish fleets agitating for increased quotas in the Irish waters how will this affect the rural parts of Ireland?

Lidl and Aldi are both based in Ireland but will no longer be able to source their goods and especially their agricultural produce without paying huge tariffs..

Apple too is based in Ireland but will face large tariffs to access the UK market.

Worst of all I imagine Amazon is also based in Ireland but surely wouldn't be able to compete on price. Gawd knows how many billions worth of trade this amounts to alone.

Also what of the preferential corporation tax in Ireland that the EU wants to 'harmonise' which would mean doubling it. Under the qualified majority voting how long can the Irish alone hold out?

What, to counterbalance all this, are the positives?

Absolutely Spin. For all the pantomime acting out on our screens, the ducks are absolutely being lined up. One thing no one is in any doubt of, is the EUs ability or lack or ability, (all 27 members?) or the EUs potential lack of desire, to agree anything.

Springbreeze, the Apple issue, which sees both Apple and Ireland on the same side versus the EU, is Irelands desire to negotiate their own arrangements. Arrangements that have turned them around from financial disaster. Dare I say it, its both legal and financial sovereignty.

On the whole Brexit thing, I totally disagree with you. What youre suggesting, (and is yet another of the europhiles fearmongering campaign, a baseless fallacy) quite simply wont happen.

Both Northern Ireland and Ireland want an 'invisible' border. Its the EU who again would be the objectors in your hypothetical argument. That is in itself a politically grim situation. The EU would have to be the enforcers of this, despite the will of mainland UK, the UK government, the desire of the NI peoples and the desire of the government and peoples of the Irish Republic.
It is also absolutely do-able, as seen in Cyprus, so to 'discriminate' simply because they wish to act punitively, would be in breach of their own legislation. Yes Turkey is part of the customs union but there must be some form of 'customs union' between the UK and EU and Ill explain why.

As with Cyprus, there are key travel routes in and out, and controls both of 'people' and 'goods' would be managed at the arrival points. It wasnt hard to set up in Cyprus and its not hard to set up in Ireland/NI. There is already this arrangement with the ROI and the UK with regards the common travel area (CTA). Ireland currently act as UK migration control on their incoming routes, which then allows a broader application of the CTA to more travellers.
Customs already exist for goods and travellers from outside of the EU, and use of the CHIEF system they already have in place will easily support any level of tariff that may be applied.

To simplify, there are 3 immediate levels of 'tax' that apply to all goods. VAT, excise, and potential tariffs (BTI, Binding Tariff Information) Whilst everyone is tutting over the tariff issue, we already have controls over these 3 areas. All these processes support trade irrespective of in or out of the EU. The reason being, that its not enough to say currently 'all UK exports to EU member states are non-vatable', because theyre not. There are a multitude of circumstances that means goods can be currently sold into an EU member states business, and VAT must be applied. The core structure of these controls are Region of Origin and Destination. We already apply these processes as Origin/Destination procedures. An invisible border in Ireland will make no difference whatsoever to these processes.

The same rules of Origin and Destination applies to goods that are produced within the Republic and then sold over an 'invisible' border for use in NI, and would be an issue for customs enforcement, just as it is now.
Coming back to tariffs therefore, the issue is 'how much, if any'. (Not the actual ability to control goods)

How does that cost impact Ireland? It could be significant. Take Fuel. Ireland imports over 90% of its fuel/gas from the UK. Any additional tariff applied to that would be hugely significant.

Why will a customs union exist? Quite simply VAT. Theoretically, the UK could do away with VAT post Brexit. Its an EU Legislated tax. However, neither the UK nor the EU can afford to lose it. VAT accounts for over £150 billion of our total tax revenue. Thats a figure we could never recoup from any other area. The EU receive around 12% of its VAT revenue from the UK (That includes calculating the correction rebate we receive). Would the EU prefer to lose their UK VAT stream? Never never never, as theres no reason whatsoever to do away with it. Its free money now and itll be free money then.

What we are all witnessing is indeed classic EU pantomime and posturing from an organisation who knows appearances are everything.

The EU wants to preserve the GFA. That means soft border. UK gov is committed to common travel area. Good news, doesn't quite sit with taking back control of borders though..

It's a pantomime that will be viewed with horror by nations around the world though. Don't assume that seemingly disinterested nations, even those who aren't our traditional allies, aren't taking a keen interest. It is ultimately in their own interests to ensure that sovereignty prevails.

The UK is playing possum, allowing the drama to play out though frankly merely by appointment of Verhofstadt the EU mucked up.

Yes vat is free money for the EU. We collect it and they take a slice. On the external tariffs though, which can be punitive, we collect them and the EU takes almost all of it. I don't have a current figure for this though I've requested it from the ons.

Ireland joined the EEC at the same time as us, hence the cta was not an issue. The cta though predates the EU's legislation and therefore takes precedence. That the EU would require treaty change to accommodate it, and that this would be a very slow process, is effectively their problem if they refuse reasonable negotiations.

The EU don't have a problem with the CTA. It's the Tories playing with fire doing a deal with the DUP that threatens the GFA.

Pretty sure there will be no hard border. Also nice paradox that people born in the north can obtain Irish passports and thus be EU citizens.

Also plenty of reports of banks registering interest and acquiring office space in Dublin in order to remain in the eurozone. Nice little earner for Ireland.

The EU treaties most certainly do have a problem with the cta.

A problem that requires treaty change.

"Good news, doesn't quite sit with taking back control of borders though.."

Yes it does. Ireland are already acting as 'migrant' control for the UK due to the CTA. The 'border' already exists at the geographic boundary of Ireland.

"Also plenty of reports of banks registering interest and acquiring office space in Dublin in order to remain in the eurozone. Nice little earner for Ireland."

Not quite Ghost, this also happened when the 12.5 % corporation tax was introduced. Despite 'spin' the majority of banks 'registering an interest' already have operations in Ireland. There is no such 'exodus' the europhiles wish to promote.

What it also hasnt done, is create jobs. As with the corporate tax influx, they are registered offices only, with minimal manpower, purely created to take advantage of the tax benefits.

"That the EU would require treaty change to accommodate it, and that this would be a very slow process, is effectively their problem if they refuse reasonable negotiations." Absolutely Spin.

I don't fully understand how some of the things listed in the OP are meant to link specifically to brexit, but I may be missing something. Moves in the EU on tax reform are slow, and priority is still being given to the OECD process. EC reforms are unlikely to be hastened by Brexit, and everything Ireland is facing there in terms of push back has been coming for a long time. While the UK was an ally to a certain extent (if you take the view that continuing to operate as an effective tax have while getting v little in return in terms of job is in Irelands best interests, as the Irish government seems to do) they are much less concerned about it than say the Netherlands or Luxembourg.

International organisations that have their EU HQs in Ireland (predominantly for tax purposes) are unlikely to move these.

What happens regarding their interaction with the UK is still up for grabs, but essentially that will probably be more an issue for importing, and none of these goods are imported from Ireland, nor do the related jobs sit in Ireland.

The big concerns are NorthernIreland, unpredictable effects of currency fluctuations and agricultural exports. There is a real chance of this reigniting conflict. The social costs of this would be huge, there would also be financial effects. Goods currently move freely across the border, which is invisible except for signs informing you speed limits are now in MPH. This includes goods at various stages of production, so there could be infrastructure problems I'd say processing plants had to be reproduced. A huge number of our agricultural exports go to the UK, if sterling drops in value still lower- which tbh seems very likely, even if only relatively short term - then this will have a huge effect on farmers.

Then there is the question of jobs moving from London. It's being seen as a positive, but the reality is Dublin is facing a housing crisis due to a shortage of construction post-crash: bankers coming over and driving up prices yet further could be damaging.

I don't think any of this is likely to radically change public opinion on ireland staying in the EU, but that will depend how it's handled. So far the view is that brexit is insane, and that the EU are much more concerned about the GFA than the tories. They have seemed much more adaptable about preserving the CTA, too. For movement of people, I don't see it being a problem- ireland already protects the borders at airports in a way the UK doesn't for people arriving from Ireland, e.g. Full passport control. The main issues are the DUP stating they won't except any difference in what happens in NI vs rUK, and what this will all mean for goods.

Also- re EU army: firstly, Ireland is neutral, secondly, I believe any such participation would require a referendum which wouldn't pass. So, not a real issue of concern.

Spinflight

While the EU are playing EU rules and being cocks in trying to slow Brexit down so they can use the uncertainty to poach UK businesses e.g. the City, who is to say WHAT preliminary negotiations can't be had with our old colonies and 52 countries forming what used to be called the British Commonwealth, and now just called the Commonwealth - with its head office representing around 2.3 billion citizens, in London??

Article 50 was never meant to be used, as a country could go there, but no country was ever meant to leave (like 'The Hotel California' really) - and so far, the consequential 'interpretation' of Article 50 departure like the ORDER of negotiations, has been firmly on EU terms, like demanding money and better EU citizen right here first, before negotiating anything else.

So with the EU playing hard ball, whats wrong with the UK having chats with our old colonial and Commonwealth friends, before an official Brexit - as they rush through new treaties e.g. Japan?

As far as Corporate Taxation goes, even if nothing much else has happened since some OECD multilateral agreement for transparency in 2014 (see link below), in my opinion the prospects for low tax countries like Ireland looks good from September this year – as the authorities crack down, large corporations have less options - so look to settle in countries so comfortable with a low tax economy, businesses can both settle in a country and plan 5 years plus into the future.

“Noose tightens around global tax evasion as OECD countries sign new agreement”

“The OECD just took a step closer to fighting tax evasion on a global scale, with 51 territories agreeing to create “information exchanges” that will help track culprits down.”

“The first signatories to the dull-sounding "multilateral competent authority agreement" – which include the UK and Ireland – will launch their information exchanges by September 2017. Others will follow in 2018.”

In the UK on the other hand, thanks to a resurgence of the 1970’s far left and the uncertainty of the next general election, the opposite is true, based on the Corbynisters chosen ‘Venezuelan model’ of a much larger state, paid for by ever increasing taxation on all businesses (until the inevitable closures or relocations happens) – via an El Presidente Corbyn and his anti capitalism and anti profit sidekick – who has also just shown that on Brexit, Labour would rather try and bring the government down, than get behind them to get a Brexit deal through parliament.

I reiterate, the UK will have to face a potential anti business Labour headwind, for the foreseeable future, and so in my mind making the Republic of Ireland a much better place for larger corporations to settle, bullying from Brussels and the Franco-German axis, or not.

Trade in agricultural products and foodstuffs is going to be the big issue. The EU has already said that 100% of agricultural trade will be subject to veterinary/ phytosanitary checks.

I would love to know how people think this is going to be achieved without "friction".

"So with the EU playing hard ball, whats wrong with the UK having chats with our old colonial and Commonwealth friends, before an official Brexit - as they rush through new treaties e.g. Japan?"

It's merely a wink and a nudge that we are, to actually do so officially is a breach of our treaty obligations.

If the EU were to actually complain that we are in breech then other EU countries could renounce their own treaty commitments as it is a multilateral breach which directly affects them. :)

The treaty of Vienna is quite clear in this point, and Trump, Turnbull etc were quite deliberately poking the EU.

In short the EU plays hardball and our cousins play it back on our behalf.

Take Japan for instance. The proposed deal with them is an EU negotiated one, but they'll want to know how brexit will affect them. They can't even find out because they're not allowed to negotiate with us. Ridiculous yes...

In which instance you can imagine the reaction they'll have towards the EU. And, of course, the natural counter reaction to their petty rules and behaviour.

Sadly Thea this shouldn't be a party political issue, but it's being used as such in a particularly amateurish way by both sides.

Labour are right in that there needs to be a grown up discussion regarding how we will use our new found freedoms. If that were nationalisation of certain industries and such then I wouldn't personally have a problem with that. It is however a debate which should ensue once we leave.

Also the role of Dublin based firms, I can't recall many of my PayPal transactions going anywhere but Ireland. It currently allows many of these to file unlikely accounts which avoid all UK tax, though the effect upon the Irish economy should we sever this entirely would be desperate.

Not just Ireland, there's many firms supposedly based in Luxembourg etc which could do with a dose of reality too.

Ireland is not a commonwealth country, and hasn't been since 1949 so any UK commonwealth plans or discussions won't impact Ireland.

Dublin doesn't have the infrastructure (schools, housing, transport) to welcome huge numbers of well paid bankers, so it is unlikely that there can be a big move to Dublin. Regardless of how the corporation tax works out, international companies will need a EU base and Ireland's English speaking workforce, its strong US links and international outlook will mean it will remain attractive to those who need to be in Europe.

As Appalazian stated, the border/GFA and the impact of even a soft border on agriculture as well as the impact of a crashing sterling on businesses trading mainly with the UK are key. The drop in sterling is already a big issue for companies in Ireland.

The EU have already guaranteed Irish neutrality via treaties so that shouldn't be an issue. There are lots of issues with the CTA - it only refers to Irish and UK citizens being able to move freely so how do you control other Europeans who won't have permission to move? Stopping people who look a bit French at this vaguely soft border? It is going to take some imaginative work to solve this issue and there has been no effort by the tories. DD famously referred to this border as an internal one at the start of the discussions. I hope he's genned up on his knowledge of where the UK stops since then. I live by a EU/Schengen border and even with FOM, there are tailbacks at the borders at peak times to ensure that tarifs are paid and people aren't smuggling shopping/goods/people.

The only reason Irish issues are so high on the Brexit negotiating table is thanks to the Irish government's highly successful lobbying of EU partners and efforts at preparing for Brexit despite no help from the UK govt in providing details or ideas. The EU understands our issues a lot better than the UK does and our close ties and good diplomatic relations will hopefully help lessen the impact and at least force the Brexiteers to address the issues and detailed solutions.

Ireland is the country that is going to be most punished by Brexit, other than the UK of course. As a whole, it is a country that has benefited enormously from the EU since joining, both in terms of social and economic impacts and that is why Irish people are generally very pro Europe. T Even with the best will in the world, it is going to be a very difficult transition for Ireland but it is very clear that it is the EU where the future lies and that we can't rely on any favours from the UK.

"The only reason Irish issues are so high on the Brexit negotiating table is thanks to the Irish government's highly successful lobbying of EU partners and efforts at preparing for Brexit despite no help from the UK govt in providing details or ideas."

You aren't wrong usually, though the British government isn't allowed to talk to the Irish government about this. Indeed when brexit related things come up in joint discussions the Irish have to either leave the room or remain entirely silent.

Would be amusing if it wasn't so childish.

The 27 have decided that the EU will negotiate though so I'd argue that it is the UK that can't rely on the Irish government for any favours.

If, as did seem totally inevitable even before recent developments, no deal can be reached there are far reaching consequences.

Think merely about the access to five eyes that the EU would lose, and how much such capabilities would cost to generate.

Being neutral won't spare Ireland from having to fund the EU's security aspirations, or indeed contribute to the tens of billions lost from their current budget.

Once denied access to the UK where will people flock for decently paid employment? London might be the current destination of choice, but that will clearly change.

Where will the infrastructure come from to allow Ireland's agricultural exports? My understanding is that they mainly flow thriving the UK currently even if not consumed there. Does Ireland even have a container port? Cork wasn't last time I was there..

And fuel and gas... What proportion currently comes from our shores? Will these attract tariffs?

I want to preserve the Good Friday Agreement and the common travel area, and I want to find solutions with the Republic of Ireland and with the British authorities.

www.independent.ie/business/brexit/we-will-find-a-border-solution-insists-barnier-35904216.html

As a previous poster has pointed out if the status quo continues re: border, nothing to stop an EU citizen driving from Dublin up to Belfast. Does taking back control of borders only apply to England?

How will Brexit voters who wanted to control non Brits coming to UK feel about the common travel area remaining? The Irish in Britain haven't exactly been greeted with a warm welcome historically.

I've heard conflicting reports about Ireland losing jobs due to Brexit but also gaining - so could cancel itself out. No need to worry about infrastructure being stretched?

Stretched infrastructure is going to be quite an issue I think..

Not sure what percentage of Irish exports use British infrastructure though a glance at the shipping capacity of your ports, I suspect it must be greater than half..

At that with a great majority of exports being consumed in the UK.. Which probably won't happen given the likely tariffs the EU will insist on.

I suspect if you wanted to be ready for brexit in Ireland you should have started at least five years ago. And invested an awful lot of money to do so.

if only Ireland had a crystal ball 5 years ago to predict Brexit would happen...

I suspect some people see Ireland as the EU's achilles heel and use the country as pawn in the Brexit game. Sad really given the close economic and social ties between Ireland and the UK. As a pp has said Ireland has done very well from the EU (as has the north) and I don't see that changing - for RoI at least.

Brexit may well sink UK and Ireland economically - at least the latter has 26 allies, UK will likely go crawling to Trump.

"As a previous poster has pointed out if the status quo continues re: border, nothing to stop an EU citizen driving from Dublin up to Belfast. Does taking back control of borders only apply to England?"

This completely misunderstands a/ EU citizens rights and b/ the CTA.

Lets just roll with the 'invisible' border for a moment. No EU citizen can currently enter the UK without a passport and passing through passport control. Ireland currently enforce that on behalf of the UK at their geographic border. So first step, the EU citizen has already been proven to be an legal EU citizen when entering Ireland.

Up goes the 'invisible' border, and of course an eu citizen can simply drive to Belfast. However, your assumption is that post Brexit EU citizens will be banned from the Uk. That is absolutely not the case. EU citizens, have and will always be able to enter the UK on their passports. (Unless theyre 'wanted' or barred of course) The whole what about visas?!!! Is another fearmongering baseless fallacy and indeed the worst the Eu can force on the UK is to put us back to our position, pre-EU treaties.

The current arrangement of Ireland taking that responsibility will remain. What will be removed by Brexit is the right of EU citizens to remain, work, claim local benefits etc. Tenancy rules in the UK already ask for proof of residential rights, just as employers are responsible for proof of rights to work. So just because an EU citizen has physically moved him/herself into NI, doesnt mean that by physically standing on the north side of the 'invisible' border, they suddenly gain some rights to live, work and demand support. They dont.

As currently happens with the CTA, any EU national has the right when entering Ireland, to travel freely within the CTA. For example, the Isle of Man is not in the EU however, the CTA preceded the EU treaties, and therefore certain rights to travel were allowed. What does happen though with the IOM, is that to work, you need to apply for a work permit, and to live, you must prove you are financially self sufficient. There is no 'assumed' right, that because youve been able to freely travel to the IOM, you have any right to work, draw benefits or live there supported by the Government.

So what point are you trying to raise Ghost? European citizens have always been welcomed to visit the UK, what youre attempting to say is the utter eurotrash that EU citizens will be barred? They really really wont. Its simply their terms of 'visitation' that will change.

Or was your post simply a weak effort at making some nasty shitstirring point about "The Irish in Britain haven't exactly been greeted with a warm welcome historically."? That sort of bullshit is not worth responding to.

"I suspect some people see Ireland as the EU's achilles heel and use the country as pawn in the Brexit game. Sad really given the close economic and social ties between Ireland and the UK. As a pp has said Ireland has done very well from the EU (as has the north) and I don't see that changing - for RoI at least.

Brexit may well sink UK and Ireland economically - at least the latter has 26 allies, UK will likely go crawling to Trump."

This is utter ignorant rubbish. On all points.

European citizens have always been welcomed to visit the UK, what youre attempting to say is the utter eurotrash that EU citizens will be barred? They really really wont. Its simply their terms of 'visitation' that will change.

Ah, I must have imagined the taking back control of borders, British jobs for British people part of the leave campaign. I must also have imagined the 40 odd % rise in reported race hate crimes post referendum. I didn't say Europeans would be barred. Whether they want to come (applications for nursing applications from EU now in major decline) with the whiff of xenophobia lingering over Britain remains to be seen.

This is utter ignorant rubbish. On all points.

Again, I must have imagined leavers talking up trading opportunities with the rest of the world post Brexit. The Tories are making noises about trading with the US. Lets see how the NHS fares..

Or was your post simply a weak effort at making some nasty shitstirring point about "The Irish in Britain haven't exactly been greeted with a warm welcome historically."? That sort of bullshit is not worth responding to.

My Irish family have first hand experience of harsh treatment in the UK. Anti irish sentiment in the UK is well documented - from Punch magazine cartoons to 'no dogs, no blacks, no irish' signs.

You aren't wrong usually, though the British government isn't allowed to talk to the Irish government about this. Indeed when brexit related things come up in joint discussions the Irish have to either leave the room or remain entirely silent.

What meetings are these Spinflight? Who are the British talking to when the Irish have to leave the room? Genuinely interested. My understanding is that the UK govt have been absolutely no help in planning for Brexit as they haven't a clue what they want themselves.

Regarding contributing to the EU on security issues, the Irish Army have a proud peacekeeping history and the Navy are currently deployed in the Med on with the EU migrant search and rescue operation so I guess we can contribute in those ways.

I suspect if you wanted to be ready for brexit in Ireland you should have started at least five years ago. And invested an awful lot of money to do so.

Pity we didn't have a heads up, eh? I think the Irish Govt is only too aware that this is not an ideal planning scenario.

Ireland currently enforce that on behalf of the UK at their geographic border.... The current arrangement of Ireland taking that responsibility will remain. "
Your wording is a bit off: Ireland takes responsibility for its own borders, it doesn't do it on the behalf of the UK. And perhaps we in RoI need to be more concerned about economic migrants coming from the UK post Brexit, rather than the other way around ;)

That is absolutely not the case. EU citizens, have and will always be able to enter the UK on their passports.
None of us have any idea what the EU border scenario will be like post Brexit. It is entirely possible that UK citizens would need an ESTA type holiday visa to enter the EU. There will need to be some controls, no matter how minimal. Apart from anything else, there will be an enormous amount of potential for smuggling across EU borders via NI and this will have to be accounted for. It might have been possible to put border controls on the island, but now that May is in bed with the DUP I doubt that is viable.

The CTA is based on a different world where Ireland wasn't in the EU and where the UK government doesn't consider RoI a foreign country for the purposes of British law (Ireland Act, I949). Îs that going to stand post Brexit? There's a lot of messy legislature left over after Irish Independence (they still don't know where the border runs through Lough Swilly). We all want a friction-less border. But I don't see how it is possible, it's another cake and eating it scenario. I really do hope it is solved somehow.

I don't understand your overall reasoning Caroline. Do you think that there will be minimal to no economic or political impact on RoI because of Brexit? What do you think RoI should do? Are you one of those who think RoI should ditch the EU and rejoin the UK?

Re “Again, I must have imagined leavers talking up trading opportunities with the rest of the world post Brexit. The Tories are making noises about trading with the US. Lets see how the NHS fares..”

The UK and the U.S. have been ‘trading’ well before John Wayne was a cowboy, and UK companies are probably still the largest foreign country investor in the U.S. supporting around 1 million U.S. jobs.

So no ‘noise’, the trade ties exist that can be both expanded and formalised, but clearly Trump ‘the businessman’ will be a tough cookie.

Which brings me to that old left wing ‘chestnut’ that America will take over the NHS.

Apart from the obvious point that no company can ‘take over’ a State service if the government don’t put it up for sale, Trump is a businessman, under a Conservative government putting piecemeal NHS services up for tender the private sector can do cheaper, there ain’t much money in it – it was under Labour and their abuse of the Private Finance Initiative, where private companies could make up to 71% profit - so based on records in power (rather than use of misinformation mantras), CURRENTLY under this government, the NHS is in much safer hands.

"What meetings are these Spinflight? Who are the British talking to when the Irish have to leave the room?"

Was mentioned by David Davis in evidence to the Lords brexit Committee the other day. Either he wasn't specific about the forum itself or I don't recall.

The thread seems to have taken a bitter and nationalistic tone, which is unfortunate. That I don't accept the narrow characterisations painted should be obvious.

What then, changing track, are the likely advantages for Ireland inherent in brexit?