Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

Are you a Nigerian prince?

So, you are saying that another consequence of Brexit is that it puts us at huge, huge economic risk if a far left wing government get in?

Those references to the Marx brothers -are you saying that Brexit was based on a kind of Groucho club objection? Maybe it was, for some leave voters.

Gotta love the Daily Heil.

^We want tougher border controls"
EU institutes tougher border controls
But but but, now decent, stupid, Daily Mail reading racists are being held up at airports

And I love the phrase "EU negotiators trying to do us harm"

In other words, EU negotiators are a) a lot better than the likes of David Davis, and b) working on behalf of the people they represent, i.e. not us.
Whereas the UK negotiators are working on behalf of a catastrophically chaotic government that doesn't have a fucking clue what it's doing.

How could it possibly go wrong!

I think the Marx brother reference refers to Corbyn/McDonnell, or at least that's how I read it.

That may be what she meant, but she put it in a current context, rather implying that the Tories are running around like a bunch of comedians. Sadly, I don't think any of the current leadership are as clever as Groucho, as cunning as Chico, or as erudite as Harpo. Maybe there's a Zeppo in there somewhere...

I won't argue with your alternative interpretation , Cardinal
I've just spent a fortnight in the company of a business group from Japan and Europe and heard similar views from them. This altered opinion of the UK stems , I think , more from the shambles of the post referendum period rather than just from the results of the actual vote.

But I forgot about the least known brother, Gummo!

Squishy

” So, you are saying that another consequence of Brexit is that it puts us at huge, huge economic risk if a far left wing government get in?”

Nope, there are two very different political risks in the UK for the next 2-5 years, arguably equally as important.

• Brexit with the opening round of unreasonable EU demands on relatively simple subjects looking to penalize the UK with their courts and non-itemised exorbitant divorce bill - with an even simpler Trade deal, where they currently benefit in cash terms more than we do, and it’s far simpler to deconstruct a trade deal than negotiate one scheduled by them for the end - showing our businesses, that the EU are not negotiating in good faith.

And

• A far left government the UK has not seen in nearly 40-years, who will discourage private sector investment and job retention, never mind creation, by those politicians pretending that they can build a much larger UK state on their Corporate Taxes (only derived at when a profit), when for 40-years all the far left have done is say that profits are the devils work – and so there will be much higher taxes across the whole economy, which slows down economic growth, putting the UK into a downward spiral.

Below is a reflection of what all businesses would both feel and negatively prepare for , with such an anti business government in power.

“The Biggest Worry for British Bankers Isn’t Brexit”

Mathsanxiety

”Are you a Nigerian prince?”

Unfortunately, not.

But why, would you marry me?

Whatever, thanks for asking and that comment was far more amusing that theoretical clap-trap you came up with to try dig yourself out of your Zero Hours, PFI, and £350 million NHS hole you dug for yourself on the previous page.

The denial that YOU offered me a link on the comparison of Zero Hours here and in the EU as some explanation of Temp Contracts in the EU was good - but this following paragraph of yours(?) part explaining why a Labour government who always accuses the Tories of Privatisation totally abused (PFI) borrowing 'for the 2000s now' from the Private Sector, on rubbish up to 40-year terms - was bullsquirt priceless.

"(a) PFI is the natural outcome of the philosophical stance that 'There is no such thing as society'. The reasoning behind PFI was that simply writing a cheque for hospital building and expansion and improvement of equipment and technology was not politically feasible,"

Moving on, feel free to dispute any of the points I made above your post in answer to CardinalSins stuttering post below (on the previous page), or support her points, no doubt projected with better grammar;

”But but but, wasn't the low £ supposed to spur the UK on to a massive rise in living standards, growth, sunlit uplands and unicorns?”

And there she goes again, making stuff up as she goes along...

"...showing our businesses, that the EU are not negotiating in good faith."

To some extent, whether the EU are adopting the stance they are because they are big meany meanies, or whether they are being perfectly reasonable in protecting the best interests of their citizens is irrelevant.
It was entirely predictable (and was predicted -see "project fear") that the negotiations would be exceptionally difficult, and that economic pragmatism would not be the only consideration during the talks.
Its interesting how quickly the narrative shifted from "we can definitely, easily get a better deal out than in" to "economic trouble ahead, but its all the EU's fault for not giving us a better deal out than in".

The article you linked to agrees with the points I made about Brexit being bad for business, thank you Thea. Glad you are coming round! And the conclusion of the article is even cautiously optimistic about Corbyn.

And at a time when Britain has cut itself down to size with the Brexit vote, more self-inflicted wounds would just be cruel. That's an argument, among others, that the City will need to make to Corbyn and the wider public.

If he does eventually lead a government, Corbyn is not going to be as chummy with the City as Tony Blair once was, but nor is he as impervious to argument or as resistant to change as many believe. He increasingly dons crisp white shirts and red tie for major engagements; he has shown pragmatism in policy when it's called for. The City's unfriendly neighbor is, after all, a politician. It's time they talk.

I didn't deny that I offered you a link, Thea. I stated very clearly that I posted a link.

If you can't understand what the link said, then I am happy to explain it to you.

Clearly your problems with the English language extend to comprehension as well as writing

How dare you offer a link, when Thea has posted nothing but the bizarre ramblings of her own diseased mind!

Yes, but did you read your link math? If so, that's where you're going wrong; Its much better to post an interview with someone, then get all "who tf is that guy" when the following poster mentions them in their post.

CardinalSin

My "diseased" mind has its own views, and I will use links to either back up my views, give other readers more material to challenge my views, or believe it or not, provide a better explanation of what I am trying to say.

I found that if my view did not stack up factually, trying to cut and paste others views (or links) could never directly answer the points being raised, and thats where dear Maths came unstuck - trying to offer others intellectual BS words to defend the indefensible, and as a nasty critic of mine, I felt the need to bring that up.

Now as for you, you first said below;

”But but but, wasn't the low £ supposed to spur the UK on to a massive rise in living standards, growth, sunlit uplands and unicorns?”

And then you regurgitated my opinion of that statement of yours.

So OK then, with the aid of YOUR ramblings and links, WHO said that a low Pound would "spur the UK on to a massive rise in living standards etc"? - as all I remember were people saying one of the 'benefits' of a much lower Pound (causing upward pressure on UK inflation) - was that it would at least help our Exporters.

(Or were you making that up?)

Squishy

”The article you linked to agrees with the points I made about Brexit being bad for business, thank you Thea. Glad you are coming round! And the conclusion of the article is even cautiously optimistic about Corbyn.”

Businesses here and in Europe have uncertainty every day in the competitive markets and environment they work in, and also face political uncertainties most of the time, but obviously especially at elections and referendums times.

Brexit is therefore bound to cause commercial uncertainties that until clarified, will make businesses modify their behaviour, from the City, the FTSE 100, down to many medium sized businesses, ESPECIALLY when on the EU’s strict order of negotiation business (until May 2019), UK-EU Trade is last on the list.

But as EU businesses exporting/importing from the UK are arguably worse affected by this uncertainty, as the EU exports more to us in value terms than we export to them - if the current EU is not just some slippery, vindictive, political project, rather than the Common Market the UK joined decades ago – why is Trade the last major category on the EU Negotiators list?

As for what point ‘the City needs to make’ to Corbyn and the people, other than say the benefits to UK society of the £60 odd billion in direct taxes they contribute to the UK economy (and £billions more through spending in the wider economy) Old Labour wants to risk for what, an estimated £5.7 billion in Tobin Tax - you are completely missing the consequences of your own ‘fears’ about the City after Brexit.

While every City Investment Bank wants to keep their European headquarters/Holding Company in the UK – with the possible exception of the Deutche Bank relocating closer to 50% of their staff back home as apparently reweighting their Investment Banking vs Commercial lending in their EU market place to the latter - approximately 20-25% of every institutions business/staff, depending on their business percentages in Europe, need to be set up in an EU country for regulatory and accounting reasons.

So the City will already have European bolt holes to transfer however much of their business/revenue streams, targeted by a Marxist UK administration spending all their time looking to increase tax on UK located businesses - resulting in the UK receiving LESS tax, not more, from the City investment banking/fund management industries - with a proven track record of adapting to onerous domestic changes in regulation/tax, by changing location.

FYI the UK became the main European capital market hub from around the mid 1970’s to 1980’s, when multi-national institutions MOVED their companies from cities all over Europe to the UK, and so there is no god given right to keep as much tax revenues as it looks like we’ll keep - if a Marxist government without the first clue on how to GROW the Private Sector - thinks that they can use them (and every other business) as tax/cash points, to fund nationalisation and other ideological pet projects.

Corbyn/McDonnell have their fixed ideological agendas, and you are correct in that they TALK alright, but they don’t LISTEN, and if Old Labour without a commercial little grey cell between them, implement new City related taxes, especially those difficult to administer/collect on some transactions, while others are passed on to the public – the City in over 40-years will never have had such an immediate and practical route out of here, for some or ALL of their activities.

why is Trade the last major category on the EU Negotiators list?

Because, dear Thea, Brexit means leaving the EU, and that means severing all former agreements on EU/UK trade and negotiating new ones. Once Brexit becomes reality, the UK will have the same status vis a vis trade with the EU as states like Cuba, Somalia, and Laos - i.e. states that have no trade agreements with the EU.

The new agreements cannot be entered into before the old one has expired. They will require years of negotiating.

Like I said Thea, does it matter whether the EU are being difficult because they are evil, slippery bastards or because they are acting perfectly reasonably?

The net result is the same; a negotiating position that is about so much more than pure economic pragmatism. Its about the politics as well. This is exactly what "project fear" predicted, which was pooh-poohed by leavers who claimed the negotiations would be a cake walk.

"I found that if my view did not stack up factually, trying to cut and paste others views (or links) could never directly answer the points being raised, and thats where dear Maths came unstuck - trying to offer others intellectual BS words to defend the indefensible, and as a nasty critic of mine, I felt the need to bring that up."

Firstly, Math has not been remotely "nasty" to you, you take the nasty title all by yourself.

And other than that, your opinion of yourself is so over-inflated I'm surprised you're not posting from the European Space Station. Many people have used links to back up their statements, your links have been some of the worst researched and the least supported on here.

CardinalSin

Give your obviously pathetic denials a rest, its Saturday, take a day off.

Mathsanxiety

”Because, dear Thea, Brexit means leaving the EU, and that means severing all former agreements on EU/UK trade and negotiating new ones. Once Brexit becomes reality, the UK will have the same status vis a vis trade with the EU as states like Cuba, Somalia, and Laos - i.e. states that have no trade agreements with the EU.”

With respect, 'dear', your answer is exactly what I’d expect from an unelected by the people, own-head-up-own-bum, Brussels bureaucrat, focusing on penalising the UK while totally oblivious to the needs of member states businesses – no doubt only quieter at the start of negotiations than the more geographically concentrated UK businesses as they are spread across the EU – who haven’t woke up to the possibility of UK import ‘controls’ on non services ‘stuff’ after Brexit e.g. maybe encouraging cheaper wine imports from the New World growers, should the EU remain shitty.

If you are seriously telling me that it will take years for the EU to look at the trade between the UK and EU we are CURRENTLY 100% compliant in every way, and decide in which products/industries there needs to be new restrictions, then you are confirming that there isn’t ‘good faith’ from the EU – who on one hand says we are leaving, so no ties, and then says the European Court of Justice should rule over their citizens working here in perpetuity – when does that exist for EU citizens working in America, or elsewhere in the world?

Country trade deals with an EU with 27 members, and self important brokers in Brussels, with their own protectionist, rules and regulation baggage, will always take several years to get the paper work done - making changes to an existing member agreement, where the EU sells more in value terms – should, technically speaking, be a piece of piss.

Now as I see Brussels as nasty, vindictive, federalists, peed off the 2nd highest EU contributor leaving puts a greater financial burden on larger EU countries struggling to grow/employ without central bank emergency style cheap cash pumping in, I am willing to accept that the EU have the petty ‘right’ to be bureaucratically unreasonable to the UK, even if it means hurting their own businesses.

But what makes me want to ‘upchuck’ are all the Europhiles, with their own agendas, constantly blaming the UK government/position when trying to deal with those slippery bastards, currently setting THEIR unreasonable terms, from THEIR order of negotiating subjects, designed to extort money and onerous to the UK concessions, Europhiles are clearly indicating we should just bend over and take.

Most of the people you want to label as "europhiles" are just concerned citizens, who have a right to an opinion on the most important constitutional issue of our lifetimes.

Once the UK leaves the EU then - absent a deal, or a transitional arrangement - it becomes a "third country". This isn't a matter of opinion, but of fact.

Whether an agreement can be reached that gives the UK some preferential status with the EU is a matter of opinion; my own view is that it might be able to, but this government is unlikely to be able to deliver a successful negotiation, and the March 2019 deadline is impossibly short.

The 2 year timetable was never realistic, and the UK's negotiating team has already squandered the first 4 months of the approximately 18 months available to reach an agreement that can be put to the EU27 and the EP. I find it difficult to imagine a scenario in which negotiations are done and dusted by late 2018. The more likely scenarios are that brexit is cancelled (becoming more and more likely), that a transition is agreed that looks just like being in the EU, or that a chaotic brexit with no deal ensues.

I don't think there is time for a EEA/EFTA transition now, plus it doesnt solve the border issues at the channel ports and in Ireland.

Oh dear, Thea doesn't like people pointing out the flaws in her "arguments" when they're comprehensible at least so she decided to just throw rude accusations around. The typical MO of the bad loser...