Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

Thea, economic realities just dont register in the remainer narrative, though you deserve a medal for perseverance. Heres Barclays view, from the remainers favourite media source.

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/10/barclays-ceo-jes-staley-no-reason-brexit-jobs-shift-europe

and heres a typical item The Guardian would rather lose circulation over than print......

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/10/canadian-pension-fund-bats-brexit-worries-city-expansion/

I really doubt anyone is getting anything from this thread (apart from the odd 50 cents here and there!)

Quite.

From Caroline's article;

Speaking at Barclays’ annual shareholder meeting in London, Staley said retaining the single market for financial services that currently exists within the EU remained the best option for the UK and EU economy.

And I love the fact that Thea is crowing over the fact that a lot of very good jobs will be going to EU countries. Raving that some of them don't want to leave is a real "wood for the trees" narrative. The fact that having the EMA over here also means than hundreds of other high end jobs are also here and will also have to leave is ignored (the EMA outsources a lot of it's current work to UK based agencies - this will not continue), as are all the various extras like conferences etc., bringing in much work for the hospitality industry etc. etc....

Mathsanxiety

Re "Are you suggesting Labour should have spent less money? Are you suggesting that the mythical '£350 million' would be wasted if it magically materialised and was spent, or that any other Brexit windfall would meet a similar fate?"

I have explained fully my view on that £350 million in an EU context, I'd elaborate on UK domestic policies here, but whats the point if you can't understand me - but just briefly pointed out with the aid of reputable links/sources that huge amounts of money were spent on the NHS but "wasted" in as far as the percentage of money that went directly to the front line - the AMOUNT of money a government can spend can mean little, if borrowed by services on annual repayment shite terms impacting future years budgets, spend badly e.g. a new HHS I.T, system costing over £11 bill had to be scrapped, and doesn’t form a foundation for the next government to improve services.

As to the UK financial constraints in 2010, even if throwing more money in was an option, it wasn’t possible without first reorganising and having a 5-year plus plan, I have already covered that.

This is an EU thread, if someone wants to just talk about the NHS, why not start one rather than deflect from the Remainer political misuse of a £350 mil NHS line on a battle bus, that obviously NEVER meant to show funds would come into the NHS (or anywhere else), before the UK stopped contributing the net £10 bil plus to the EU.

Yet mantra shown, as a 'where is the money'? Leaver lie.

So if any more on the NHS here, I’m sorry, ‘I won’t be able to understand you’.

CardinalSin

Re your "And I love the fact that Thea is crowing over the fact that a lot of very good jobs will be going to EU countries."

Is there any danger here of posters NOT misrepresenting others posts, and then answering that misrepresentation?

If that's all you have, I'd work on your own board input, hopefully in beautiful English so as not to pee of -Englishbore- Mathsanxiety.

It makes you wonder if Labour stand by ANYTHING other than re-bloating the size and cost of the UK State in their last election manifesto, as there is no such thing as stating a party in government would respect the Referendum and leave the EU, and STAY in the Single Market (with freedom of citizen movement) and Customs Union.

“Labour to fight to keep UK in single market after Brexit”

Matt Cartoon in the Telegraph yesterday (no picture needed)

“I’m on the Brexit Diet”

“I fast on days Labour when Labour backs Brexit, and eat normally on days when they oppose it”.

Some 52% of the UK population might call that an eating ‘disorder’.

Yet mantra shown, as a 'where is the money'? Leaver lie.

Totally nonsensical sentence, AKA more word soup. Can I have bread with mine?

twofingers.....

"This is an EU thread"

Says the person who keeps talking about Labour and Corbyn...

Is there any danger here of posters NOT misrepresenting others posts, and then answering that misrepresentation?

Did anyone order a massive pile of irony?

Is there any danger here of posters NOT misrepresenting others posts, and then answering that misrepresentation?

Translate?

I see from your comment on the NHS - 'lalalala/ fingers in ears', to paraphrase - that it may just be dawning on you that Brexit will mean no more NHS, partly because tax revenue will no longer support the system once economic realities start to bite, and partly because the UK will in desperation accept any terms the US asks for in a trade agreement. Such a trade agreement will of course include the opening up of the UK 'healthcare market' (i.e. the public in need of healthcare) to American for profit health services.

...the Remainer political misuse of a £350 mil NHS line on a battle bus, that obviously NEVER meant to show funds would come into the NHS (or anywhere else), before the UK stopped contributing the net £10 bil plus to the EU.

*"We send the EU £350 million a week/ let's fund our NHS instead". Vote Leave" - the infamous phrase on the bus...
The average Leave voter was sadly unable to read between the lines to the extent that you may have managed to do there, Thea. You seem to be asserting that there will come a point in time when funds formerly paid to the EU will be available for the NHS and other services. (Again, not really sure what you are saying and my response is based on a guess as to your drift).

Oh look - from the Telegraph, no less -
Nigel Farage has admitted that it was a "mistake" to promise that £350million a week would be spent on the NHS if the UK backed a Brexit vote.

Speaking just an hour after the Leave vote was confirmed the Ukip leader said the money could not be guaranteed and claimed he would never have made the promise in the first place.

The pledge was central to the official Vote Leave campaign and was controversially emblazoned on the side of the bus which shuttled Boris Johnson and Michael Gove around the country.

Campaigners promised to use the money the UK reportedly sends to the EU to fund the health service instead.

And there's a photo of Boris with a poster behind him emblazoned with the following:
"Let's give our NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week".

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/nigel-farage-350-million-pledge-to-fund-the-nhs-was-a-mistake/

www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/05/14/97905329_BRISTOL_ENGLAND_-_MAY_14__Conservative_MP_Boris_Johnson_speaks_as_he_visits_Bristol_on_May-large_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqKjggCdpvXjoraOzAlyzu1MOSRhbr0ZABex7Vh5dC_YU.jpg
Just the photo here if you're paywalled out.

The implication that a massive amount of money will be available post-Brexit is very clear.

The problems of the NHS, along with possible solutions, were central to the Leave campaign.

It's just silly to try to move the goalposts now that Brexit looms.

What is to be the fate of the NHS in the post Brexit world?

Mathsanxiety

The problem with the left, In my experience, is that they START with their ideology, then they either have to make to make up facts to justify it, or just talk, and talk, and talk, trying to sound intelligent, hoping to bore the centre right debate into submission.

They even attempt to silence their critics (even from within their own party) rather than use common sense to analyse what is in front of them - and if they are half the intellects they think they are, they should have the self respect when found out, to just concede they are talking rollocks, rather than ‘go for’ the other poster.

Lets look at your recent posts.

• Under pressure you tried to say that UK Zero Hours are the same, and have the same social impact, as EU Temp Contracts – then disrespectfully making the excuse to me that you couldn’t read my English, so as to ignore the challenge to your bluff.

• On PFI Contracts, Twofingers recently asked if I had bread with my ‘soup’, just look at your complete and utter waffle above to cover up a huge, obvious, previous government ‘borrowing for electoral gains in the now’ screw up, via incompetently negotiated contracts with the Private Sector - putting up to £220 billion of liabilities onto our public services balance sheets.

Clearly that PFI mistake has to be defended at ‘all costs’, as that sum is similar to the £250 billion they want to borrow next time for ‘investment’, but this time they want to put it DIRECTLY onto the governments balance sheet at relatively cheaper annual debt service costs, rather than have it ‘off balance sheet’ for years, like a dodgy Hedge Fund in the Cayman Islands.

• On the £350 million NHS illustration on the side of the bus, where apparently if I have to stuff a second helping of (your) red syrupy waffle down, there was the equivalent of small print underneath stating that Farage with one UK Westminster MP, and Boris who if memory served had just become a bog standard MP, was somehow on June 24th 2016 going to pay in 350 million to the NHS – when both the Prime Minister and Chancellor of the UK government were officially staunch lying EU Remainers, expecting an emergency budget that day after to stop the crash?

So coming up to the EU Referendum, in the real world the then geezer handling our government finances was hardly underwriting the Leavers NHS illustration, or any other new spending pledges, POST EU Referendum, or even POST EU contributions, now was he?

Lets not forget that the “weaponized” NHS (as Miliband called ii in a private meeting with BBC bosses) is Labour’s scare story the DAY AFTER every general election time, even in 2010 when ministers like Andy Burnham (recently promoted with Manchester for his efforts) had been covering up the Mid Staffs Hospital trust scandal.

In conclusion; when defending the almost indefensible of political positions, you have to make up stuff as you go along, but if some Remainers did think that Farage and Boris had deep pockets in their boxers, unprompted by the cynical spreading of that mantra, thinking about it they also believe the Eurozone REPEAT Eurozone, has full, permanent employment - and need our youth now and in the future to fill their vacancies. Bless.

There is nothing centre right about anything you post, TheaSaurass.

Under pressure you tried to say that UK Zero Hours are the same, and have the same social impact, as EU Temp Contracts
No, actually - I did not say that.
You are the one who insisted that UK zero hours contracts and EU (or 'Eurozone' as you choose to call it) temp style employment are comparable.

I tried to tell you that (a) comparison is very difficult because of different employment law conditions everywhere, and (b) thanks to different legal rights elsewhere, temp workers are much more secure elsewhere.

I provided a link illustrating what countries have temp hour/zero hour employment and under what conditions, just to help you understand (a) my point, and (b) that you are talking through your hat.

It is actually very respectful to you to point out that I find it hard to decipher what you post. I sincerely want to be able to understand what you are saying, albeit so that I can demolish whatever point you may be making, but still...

I did not defend PFI at all .
I pointed out that
(a) PFI is the natural outcome of the philosophical stance that 'There is no such thing as society'. The reasoning behind PFI was that simply writing a cheque for hospital building and expansion and improvement of equipment and technology was not politically feasible,
and
(b) PFI has been marked from the start by unbelievable incompetence - an amateurish managerial approach that leaves things to work out by themselves. The fundamental idea itself is a recipe for disaster. It is very tempting to remind Leavers that the same people who ran the NHS onto the rocks, conceived the preposterous 'solution' to the problem, presided over it and continue to do so are conducting the Brexit negotiations and will be navigating the state through the choppy waters of the post-Brexit world. Are you happy to trust your future to such a pack of incompetents?

Do you have as much trouble reading as you do putting your thoughts into writing?

On the £350 million NHS illustration on the side of the bus, where apparently if I have to stuff a second helping of (your) red syrupy waffle down, there was the equivalent of small print underneath stating that Farage with one UK Westminster MP, and Boris who if memory served had just become a bog standard MP, was somehow on June 24th 2016 going to pay in 350 million to the NHS – when both the Prime Minister and Chancellor of the UK government were officially staunch lying EU Remainers, expecting an emergency budget that day after to stop the crash?

'Red syrupy waffle'?
What is 'the equivalent of small print'?

On the £350 million NHS illustration on the side of the bus...there was the equivalent of small print underneath stating that Farage... was somehow on June 24th 2016 going to pay in 350 million to the NHS

Is this the main point you wanted to make there?

There was no need for small print, or its equivalent, whatever that may be.
The Leaver lie was completely clear, both on the bus and in the poster with Boris.

The rest of your post - still working on deciphering it.

"Under pressure you tried to say that UK Zero Hours are the same, and have the same social impact, as EU Temp Contracts"

Quite the opposite Thea - it was you that was trying to say that, Math was quite clearly saying the exact opposite.

Is this more of your alternative facts?

"There is nothing centre right about anything you post, TheaSaurass"

• Completely agree with this, you post like a bot from CCO

And I'm afraid that if you go round the country campaigning with something written in large letters on the side of a bus that you know is a blatant lie, you do it because you know an awful lot of people are going to believe it anyway. You wouldn't do it otherwise.

So you'r in favour of telling lies, as long as it supports you own position (this is a statement of fact, drawn from reading the more more comprehensible of your posts), hardly something to be proud of.

"They even attempt to silence their critics"

• Shut up! Will of the people

"In conclusion; when defending the almost indefensible of political positions, you have to make up stuff as you go along"

• Yes, that's exactly what you've been doing Thea

Only in your case, it's not "the almost indefensible" of political positions, but an entirely indefensible political position...

Centre right must be massive

I am usually centre right and i feel thea is further right than me

And i agree with two

I am still lurking but i am skipping a fair few posts so have lost track a bit

”MEPs have been warned in a behind closed-doors meeting in Brussels that three quarters of employees working at the European Medicines Agency do not want to leave Britain after its withdrawal from the bloc.”

I'll bet they bloody well don't. I'd be bloody well raging in their shoes- faced with either losing their job/relocating as an entirely predictable consequence of Brexit. They won't be the only ones either.
(See? Back to the thread topic again!)

Maybe they could become fruit pickers in the new gloriously de-regulated British labour market Thea keeps trying to sell us.

"The problem with the left, In my experience, is that they START with their ideology, then they either have to make to make up facts to justify it, or just talk, and talk, and talk, trying to sound intelligent, hoping to bore the centre right debate into submission."

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!!!!
You are a wag, Thea

BofE downgrades growth forecast due to Brexit...

But but but, wasn't the low £ supposed to spur the UK on to a massive rise in living standards, growth, sunlit uplands and unicorns?

Still making 'stuff' up?

Not really, who said that, as UK Manufacturing was decimated under the last government from around 20% of our economy in 1997 to around 11% in 2010 - and with no magic reset button, how is 11% plus of our economy looking to make use of a weak Pound going to produce a "massive rise in living standards" for the whole economy, duh - and the Pound that was close to $1.23, is now closer to $1.33.

And clearly as our largest trading partner is the EU, now FINALLY helps our now strong export orders - only after a Eurozone for 3-years is receiving emergency liquidity from their central bank, a decade after the financial crash - gets their 'demand' shit together.

Maybe the Bank of England should flood our businesses with cheap QE money again, but that opens an issue of much higher inflation at a later date - and the ECB already has Euro 3 trillion pumped in that has to be reversed asap - or medium term, that liquidity will put a lot of upward inflationary pressure within the Eurozone.

The UK businesses are now seeing EU negotiators trying to do us harm and a Marx Brothers combo, as rising 'politic risks', so if you think THIS is a slow down in 'investment' in the UK, just wait and see what happens when the Brothers try to build their whole UK economy - on the company profit proceeds, via Corporate Tax receipts, they ideologically detest and previously vowed on soapboxes, to reduce.

What a Corbyn country model, try to ideologically cut the private sector profits, you need to build a Venezuelan style fat state economy, without the larger oil receipts.