Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

For a ‘united Eurozone’ heading for closer integration, why is the (excluding UK) relationship of the 2nd and 3rd largest economies of France and Italy at the government level, going from bad to worse?

Italy has hardly grown since the Euro was formed, has seen companies from France, the now much strong neighbour, acquire in value deals around 6 x the worth, of the Italian deals go the other way.

Yet just as Italian company Fincantieri SpA was about to buy the French STX shipyard in Saint-Nazaire, a takeover deal agreed pre Macron, because the Italian company now refuses the new terms to ‘share’ the shipyard, rather than own at least the controlling majority of it – the French government have now said that they will NATIONALISE it instead.

The French government have bizarrely said this is “to defend France’s strategic interests in shipbuilding” – but this has gone down with the whole of Italy like a cup of cold sick – as the owner is Korean.

So it’s OK for a Korean company to own a French shipyard, but not a Eurozone member when the project is heading for greater Federalist integration???

Clearly President Macron who recently compared himself to Jupiter, has a brain the size of a planet, but already seeing his approval rating fall significantly since his election, just what is he thinking about France’s future role (with Germany) in the Eurozone - and long term, will Italy remain within it?

It really should be 'fucking posting'.
Fecking is more of an adjective.

As I stated, the Eurozone is comprised of several states, a great variety of economies, and varying labour laws. The phrase 'the restrictive labour laws they have in the Eurozone' is thus meaningless.

I don't know where you got your 'united Eurozone' quote or why you think the Eurozone is 'heading for greater Federalist integration' (by which I presume you mean a closer federated union?)
Again, I sense that you have the EU and the Eurozone confused.

You do indeed provide the quote about the precariat, but it is still not clear whether you understand the difference between the EU and the Eurozone.

I have already said and quoted all I feel is necessary on the topic of zero hours that you keep badgering me to discuss - i.e. the comparison of apples and oranges. Did you not understand the posts that I C&Pd?

The French government has had a 33.34% stake in the Saint-Nazaire shipyard (aka Chantiers de l'Atlantique) since 2008, the same year that Korea's STX acquired a majority stake in the shipyard.

In 2016, STX filed for bankruptcy and bids for the St Nazaire yard along with other assets of STX were solicited by the Seoul Central District Court, which is administering the restructuring of STX. Normally it would be up to this court to dispose of assets as it saw fit, but in this case there is a minority shareholder that is a sovereign government. Any proposed sale of the yard can only go ahead with the approval of the French government (which clearly envisioned safeguarding its strategic interest when it took the 1/3 stake in the shipyard in 2008.)

Demand for new commercial carrier vessels has slowed considerably in the last 12 months worldwide, while the number of idled container ships has also grown. It is possible that the French government wishes to be sure any buyer will guarantee the future of the St Nazaire yard, which is the only shipyard in Europe big enough to build an aircraft carrier, and all the French jobs that go with it; it might be tempting for the Italian buyer to transfer several of the St Nazaire cruise ship manufacturing contracts to Italy or to lease the facility or to sell it off to yet another non-French third party should shipbuilding become more precarious an enterprise than it already is. Paris also has concerns about French naval technology finding its way into the hands of Fincantieri’s Chinese industrial partner if it gains more than 50-50 control of the shipyard. St Nazaire is also the only shipyard in Europe large enough to build an aircraft carrier, and it is possible France wishes to secure her capacity to carry out her own defense development.

Hence the plan for temporary nationalisation while negotiations continue. It must also be remembered that the shipyard remains under the administration of the South Korean bankruptcy court.

(None of the French position is unreasonable, imo.)

Luckily, with both parties to the dispute members of the EU, EU courts may in the end adjudicate the matter. How handy.

..............
Care to discuss the current friction between the government of Ireland and that of the UK in the context of Brexit?
Causes, factors that may have exacerbated it, and potential outcomes?

Thea - For those accusing me of not previously being clear, personlly I can't think what the problem is, unless they don't like the ANSWER

Here is just one example of what the problem is:
Italy has hardly grown since the Euro was formed, has seen companies from France, the now much strong neighbour, acquire in value deals around 6 x the worth, of the Italian deals go the other way

This^ is not standard English syntax or grammar.

And here you are conflating the EU and the Eurozone:
How did you justify the Eurozones unemployment rate twice ours in 2017, and why does the Eurozone needs Euro trillions of liquidity and negative interest loans NOW from its central bank , a decade after the financial crash?

Do you understand those questions, as I think they are both quite clear, and fundamental why the UK should want to leave an EU that apparently can't help itself?

It is a fairly reasonable conflation to make given that the stated aspiration is that all countries, with the exception of the UK, are on a path to join the Euro with consequent integrated monetary policy.

In fact growth in the EU currently outstrips growth in the Eurozone even with the UK holding back the non-Euro performance.

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/8057546/2-08062017-AP-EN.pdf/8321df8a-ba1b-433e-9cdc-bfd81e3f4a45

Perhaps there is indeed an argument for reconstituting the EU as the integrated Eurozone plus a common market akin to pre-Maastricht for the non-Euro 9 plus the EFTA countries?

howabout Despite being strongly remain, I came close to voting for UKIP once in EU elections many years ago (when it was quite a different party) because I was so against the possibility of the UK joining the Euro. I had severe reservations about how a common currency could be managed across so many different economies. There are advantages, but as we have seen there are too many disadvantages. Membership of the EU, however, was the other way round imo - the advantages vastly outweighed the disadvantages.
But the EU were never going to force us to join the Eurozone (no matter what some would claim). I doubt that since the crisis many new countries will want to join the Eurozone any time soon - I disagree with you that all EU countries are on that path. Maybe once, but not any more. (Although of course it is not completely beyond the realms of possibility that a country might make an economically stupid decision for the vaguest of ideological reasons).

"Perhaps there is indeed an argument for reconstituting the EU as the integrated Eurozone plus a common market akin to pre-Maastricht for the non-Euro 9 plus the EFTA countries?"

That sounds good, but I can't see it happening. Last year we voted to give up all our direct influence over the direction of the EU.

math: Thankyou for that detailed explanation of the Saint-Nazaire shipyard issue.

Mathsanxiety/Grammarbore

The UK is in, and we will leave, the EU.

The ‘one interest rate and currency fits all’ Eurozone contains the original, more mature, and largest economies, that are both comparable to the UK, and apparently a guide to what we will be ‘missing’.

None of that is written in Swahili, but still, picking up on a posters grammar rather than admit you are being a plonker comparing the Eurozone’s unemployment and Temp Contracts to UK Zero Hours Contracts, is a personal growth problem, so for a I’ll work on my Granma, and you can work on your answers.

"I don't know where you got your 'united Eurozone' quote or why you think the Eurozone is 'heading for greater Federalist integration' (by which I presume you mean a closer federated union?)"
"Again, I sense that you have the EU and the Eurozone confused."

Have you not seen recent meetings of key EU leaders (which happen to be in the Eurozone duh) pre President Macron re-stating the wish for closer integration, and French President Macron's views to both strengthen the Franco-German alliance and a Eurozone with its own members of parliament separate to the rest, why?

(Would you like some links to show this, with 'proper' grammar?)

All the Brexiteer obsessives seem to be good for is ranting and raving about the EU.

Hard work on the other hand seems to be completely beyond them. They are completely incapable of setting out in any sort of detail how they believe the UK can leave the EU.

From the minute the Leave vote came in, all they were interested in was in stabbing each other in the back.

So rant and rave away, TheaSaurass!

"As I stated, the Eurozone is comprised of several states, a great variety of economies, and varying labour laws. The phrase 'the restrictive labour laws they have in the Eurozone' is thus meaningless."

So despite what the European Central Bank has been telling the French and Italians to do in reforming employment laws for years (and their politicians have tried and mainly failed) - or that Germany, France, and Italy tell us they need to reform those laws to accommodate the City employees moving to their countries - all this is 'meaningless'?

So once again, if not labour laws Eurozone employers say restricts their investment/hiring, why has the Eurozone not performed as well as the UK in GDP over the past 3-4 years, why is their combined unemployment level around twice ours despite their recent 'spurt' (in services jobs) - and why is it acceptable for the younger Eurozone workers to increasingly have to accept Temp Contracts??

I love how the op mentions nothing about- the crashing pound, price increases esp. for food, huge rise in hate crime, lack of freedom of movement (esp for the next generation), huge city firms making the move out of London etc, huge drop in the number of EU citizens wanting to work in the NHS... I could go on
Nice to see that the Brexit crew still have their head in the sand

P.S. And why does the Eurozone still need the European Central Bank to continue its QE type operation (the BoE finally added to in 2012 as a EU debt precaution and when Italy was entering its 3rd recession since the crash), after already injecting a few Euro trillion of liquidity and negative interest loans - in order for it TO 'grow'?

Mrskeats

The 'crashing Pound' that helped UK manufacturers who had seen their share of the UK economy half over 13-years, and jobs had been decimated, falling from 4.5 million jobs to 2 million - which hardly got a mention.

What is the inflation rate in the EU?

No rise hate crimes or new movements forming, in the EU countries?

The huge 'investment banks are not going anywhere (until Corbyn gets in), we have covered that over recent pages here - as currently only needs to be around 20-25% of staff - and even that may not have to happen if a 5-year 'transitional' period.

I would suggest that a UK being tied to, and depending on, a Euro project not growing without trillions of CPR - and where one currency and interest rate CANNOT fit all, is the Remainers pillow-over-head dream.

We import a lot-prices are rising
Travel is much more expensive
Plenty of firms moving-including my partners
www.cityam.com/263618/deutsche-bank-considering-moving-up-4000-uk-jobs-after
Many more will follow

No plenty of UK Investment Bank firms are NOT moving lock, stocks, and barrel to Eurozone countries;

According to your link "Economics think tank Bruegel has estimated that the City stands to lose 10,000 banking jobs and between 18,000 and 20,000 other professional services positions."

As we discussed earlier, there is around 360,000 direct City and related jobs, may I suggest that you look to see how many employees the Deutche Bank has in the UK - and the last time I looked, they were confident in the UK enough to sign a new lease on a building.

"Deutsche Bank commits to London by securing new HQ"

And the last time I saw the Eurozone inflation rate, it was also around 1.9%.

Maybe those continually saying the Brexiteers have their head in the sand, should actually LOOK at what we are leaving, and in an effort to talk down the UK, ask themselves why they often make up 'stuff' to do it.

Why exactly are you posting?
You are convinced things are going well despite the fact that 80% of MPs wanted to remain
History will be the judge and I am convinced this is a terrible move.

According to the democratic vote by 'the people' we are leaving, as promised in the two main UK political parties general election manifesto - so backatya, why exactly are you posting?

With the negotiating stance/schedule of the EU, and those MPs in Westminster trying to oppose the process (and thereby help the EU negotiator opposition) - how can I be convinced things are going well?

History may well see Brexit as a mistake, or the Eurozone unable to function with one currency etc implode, so for now, just look at what we are relying on, as our largest trading partner, for current, never mind future UK prosperity.

The truth is out there.

Lying to the people is not democracy
Do you still believe the £350 million to the NHS too?
(As if)

Mrskeats

The UK Conservative government position was to remain, and even if the Leave campaign politicians could write £350 million cheques, please correct me if I’m wrong, the POINT they were trying to make was the UK government (so taxpayer) as paying a NET annual £10-13 billion into the EU coffers, probably to be redistricted to smaller, or emerging, member countries infrastructure and services – could be better spent HERE.

So once again in that Remainer ‘making stuff up’ column, their accusations of “Lying to the people” clearly assumes that the UK is NO LONGER paying that money into the EU, which is obviously wrong.

A perfect example that if a mis-informative mantra if repeated often enough, people believe it.

The funny thing is, while choosing to misunderstand that UK spending ‘promise’, its mostly the Remainers who think that on the one hand, the Conservative government should bend over and receive whatever non itemised ‘divorce’ bill the EU presents us, whilst on the other hand, demanding the government spends more on the NHS.

The point is oh font of all knowledge is that they wrote that amount on a bus and people believed it. It was a lie whichever way you want to slice it.
I am fully confident I will be on the right side of history-the EU was set up to keep the peace in Europe but you conveniently ignore this.
I don't agree with the divorce bill as we should never have opted for divorce so that's a circular argument anyway.
And not to mention all the backhanders the government is paying out to car manufacturers etc
Freedom of movement will affect our children who's options are now limited but please feel free to feel superior. Your posts read like you are trying to convince yourself.

Whose even

"Freedom of movement will affect our children who's options are now limited but please feel free to feel superior. Your posts read like you are trying to convince yourself."

By not thinking the UK can spend our own annual net £10 billion plus better here than there, or the thinking Boris had £350 million stuffed down his boxers to be paid BEFORE we left the EU, I would suggest others are trying to convince themselves of the other sides lies.

You keep repeating the political mantras why apparently we had to stay, forgetting that the EU Freedom of Movement wasn't working for us in homes and services on a daily basis, and

As for our children, who when the UK was ratifying the Lisbon Treaty (without the government giving the people the referendum Blair promised) were seeing European Languages taken off school syllabuses to try improve school league table results - the 'flow' was always going to be mainly one way.

So if staying in hoping EU employment rates finally increase for mono lingual UK children, and we don't have a war is the best reason to stay in this behemoth that can't work out why it hasn't grown/employed as much as the UK for the past several years - it really isn't the Brexiteers 'reaching'.

*the POINT they were trying to make was the UK government (so taxpayer) as paying a NET annual £10-13 billion into the EU coffers, probably to be redistricted to smaller, or emerging, member countries infrastructure and services – could be better spent HERE.^

BUT, as was pointed out repeatedly, leaving the single market, and particularly the customs union, not to mention not having a readily available supply of seasonal labour where required, will contract our economy, and tax take, by considerably more than we are currently paying for the privilege of keeping our economy strong and being a big player on the world stage. This was dismissed by the likes of you as "project fear", and is now proving itself as "project fact being deliberately ignored by the Tory government sticking it's fingers in it's ears and shouting La la la as loudly as it can, whilst refusing to listen to all the business leaders desperately trying to stop this disastrous act of national self-harm".

The 'flow' was often to things like the Erasmus scheme which will likely be ended so my kids have had to change plans
Must be awful to be bedfellows with the Mail and Express
Freedom of movement has kept the NHS going for a start

CardinalSin

What are you talking about, the bus, what we will save, the PROBLEM even today, was the dumb question why isn't it in the NHS now when we are still paying it into the EU - not some wider question.

So yet another deflection.

'Project fear' on the Remain side is always about 'cliff edges', the day AFTER the Referendum, the day after we leave in May 2019, all as if it will be an 'either/or', where we stop trading entirely with the EU, and have to look elsewhere - and somehow none of the companies in the EU will give Brussels a slap before hand.

Maybe this man knows a bit more about the subject, where the EU sells more to us than we do them, than you?

“Brexit will not cause UK trade 'disruption' - WTO boss”

“Roberto Azevedo dismisses fears Britain could suffer a sudden seizure of trade during or after its negotiations with the EU.”

“The head of the World Trade Organisation has vowed to ensure Britain will not face a trade "vacuum or a disruption", however tough its exit from the European Union.”

And how can up to 3-years of a transition period by the Tory government (I personally disagree with) ensuring continuity until everything we are leaving is sorted, be sticking there fingers in their ears - as opposed to Labour still 'opposing' amongst themselves, what they want to leave??