Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

QuentinSummers

Re "Gosh thea you really don't get it do you? The whole point of the EU is it enables compromise and things to be done for the greater good of the whole EU."

Thats right, some huge Federal State of Europe project the UK never signed up to, those mainly founder members are currently trying to take to a new level.

This project which transfers wealth from larger nations to smaller/emerging nations.

This entity that refuses to socially/employment reform themselves, so any member nation creating jobs will ALWAYS be socially penalised, as due to the Freedom of Movement, citizens can move over to those members with no controls - and then refuses to then listen to those affected, due to that 'greater good'. Marvellous.

That's all well and good Quentin, but a race to the bottom is much more patriotic.

This entity that refuses to socially/employment reform themselves, so any member nation creating jobs will ALWAYS be socially penalised, as due to the Freedom of Movement, citizens can move over to those members with no controls - and then refuses to then listen to those affected, due to that 'greater good'. Marvellous.
What on earth does this mean?
I have no problem with people going where jobs are, especially when our own workforce don't even want to take many jobs (care home worker, nurse, hotel staff, cleaner, veg picker). We'd be screwed without migrant workers. Many British people take full advantage of freedom of movement themselves to live and work elsewhere.
I did raise an eyebrow at the leave voting fruit farmer stressed because his fruit was rotting in the fields as he couldn't find staff to pick it. All those EU workers, taking our jobs

QuentinSummers

We made a start, as at least you didn't disagree with my first two EU 'model' points above.

But frankly what YOU have 'problems' with, hardly mattered to many of the folk in the UK who voted to leave the EU.

What particularly gets on my goat was the homeless or millions queuing for social housing by 2010, despite the self proclaimed current 'champion of those in social hosing' being told by a Barker Housing Report they commissioned in 2003 - before we even knew how many EU citizens were going to come and work here - that the then government had to do far, far, better building homes, than they were already doing with all that money burning a hole in their exchequer pockets.

"The (2004) Barker review: key points"

I guess the majority of all those that voted Leave, didn't FEEL that EU 'greater good' in their everyday lives - but what do non elected by the citizens bureaucrats in Brussels care?

How is that the EU's fault? Successive governments failing to build anything like enough housing is indeed scandalous, but not the doing of the EU. In fact if the EU were to interfere with housing policy of a member state, and order the UK to build more, wouldn't that be considered a massive over reach? Could certain leavers please make their mind up about whether the EU interferes too much or too little.

"I guess the majority of all those that voted Leave, didn't FEEL that EU 'greater good' in their everyday lives.."
Well yeah, obviously. (Might have had something to do with cynical politicians spending years and years blaming the EU for anything and everything as a politically expedient scapegoat).
"Feeling" something doesn't make it correct though.

Squishy

UK domestic policies are clearly NOT the EU's fault, but an EU failing to grow/hire themselves and a 'model' that allows Freedom of Movement to 'enable' the lack of EU reforms needed, IS.

"Cynical (UK) politicians" or pressures on UK services and housing, some federalist bottom wipe in Brussels puts down to 'a Tory spat', rather than accept they should adapt their 'rules' to ease the immigration pressure pre Referendum - when Cameron nearly pleaded with Juncker for some relief, and was told 'the EU rules are the rules' - repeated every month since?

If similar to that Brussels botty wipe YOU are unaware of the EU pressures above I speak of, do YOU live in the UK, as posters here keep accusing me of not being from these shores but at least I am aware of 'the peoples' problems - while you strangely just put the Brussel's lack of vision, forward.

The "cynical politicians" here are those STILL promising the 'theory' of an EU land full of milk and honey, and ignoring what they see before them, as they have done for 40-years.

Corbyn was only ever pro EU over that time for the 'social' vision, never the capitalist free market aspect - so on balance anti EU, and so Europe is hardly just an intra Tory Party spat or current Westminster party split - so politically and practically, the EU was not working for us, so on balance the right decision was made.

Lets get the Brexit deal done and move on, what does Brussel's care, they certainly ain't looking to woo us into a future relationship on trust e.g. trying to force the ECJ to remain supreme to our courts on citizens, trade, customs etc.

Move on?
Because the Tories will look after the interests of the average Briton...

Thea, the accusations of 'not from here' crop up regularly. Usually from posters who refer to 'imperialism' , english syntax and sentence structure, and trot out old text book versions of uk history. The EU is the all wonderful saviour of the western world. The fact 95% of UK citizens only get 4 weeks annual holidays a year to enjoy all these wonders of FOM (which doesnt make the tinyest bit of difference to how we travelled on visitor passports and the kids want to go to DisneyWorld anyway) is utterly lost.

Never mind how Brits react to liars.

Your posts are perfectly comprehensible, to those of us who know what your talking about. But reality doesnt fit the remainer agenda.

We all know what succesive labour governments have done, though theres some irony in how labour are metamorphing into an even harder hard brexit than any of us would have imagined 18 months ago. EU multi billionaire Blair must be apoplectic with rage.

The sound of grinding axes on here is deafening.

Caroline - annual leave in the U.K. Is 5.6 weeks. Just saying.

Have I accused you of being from outside the UK, Thea?
I have tried to avoid commenting too much on the way you construct your posts, and I don't like ripping people apart for their grammar, but if you are asking - then yes, I see what pps mean.
I am within the UK, not that you have to believe me.

"but at least I am aware of 'the peoples' problems"
-Well, you seem happy to use people struggling with housing etc when trying to prove a point within your own narrow political ideology, but I am not convinced that you actually know that much about "the people", nor really care all that much. Who are "the people" you speak of? Out of interest, what do you consider to be a low wage, and what do you consider to be rich?
What do you want to do to help "the people" beyond leaving the EU and cutting public spending, tax for high earners, and working regulations?
Would you support the building of more council houses? Even though this will cost a lot of public funds? What's your opinion on right to buy, and the rules surrounding how local authorities can spend the revenue raised?

Thank you Caroline ... from both the thread timing, counting of posts and other comments aimed at degrading my input, I suspected the personal criticisms wasn't exactly trying to be helpful for my personal growth on this board.

On the understanding I'm not after a Pulitzer Prize, I'll just soldier on, and those with different politics to myself, can just carry on using as an excuse not to answer my points. Bless.

The fact 95% of UK citizens only get 4 weeks annual holidays a year to enjoy all these wonders of FOM (which doesnt make the tinyest bit of difference to how we travelled on visitor passports and the kids want to go to DisneyWorld anyway) is utterly lost.

You do understand that annual leave is not due to an EU directive, right?
Would you prefer to have to get a passport and a visa to enjoy that leave?

(Plus you have the amount wrong).

It might be worth remembering that US workers get far less time off annually. One week in your first few years in many cases. Coming soon to a workplace near you because once in direct competition with American workers by means of trade agreements, British workers will be squeezed to maintain productivity.

Thea, the accusations of 'not from here' crop up regularly. Usually from posters who refer to 'imperialism' , english syntax and sentence structure, and trot out old text book versions of uk history. The EU is the all wonderful saviour of the western world.

And yet, Carolines, nobody has asked you what the heck you are posting, even though many here differ with you.

People here genuinely want to know what is being said, in order to hand certain arses to certain posters on no uncertain plates.

[To Thea] Your posts are perfectly comprehensible, to those of us who know what your talking about.
The pair of you may not have noticed that you have left the Brexit echo chamber. Ability to communicate your thoughts coherently is necessary when you're not just communing with each other.

I'll just soldier on, and those with different politics to myself, can just carry on using as an excuse not to answer my points. Bless.
Carry on using what, Thea?

Mathanxiety

Your sad efforts to talk down the UK (and me) while ignoring the problems within the EU, are 'coherent'?

Once again then, please explain to me again how the extremely worrying trend in the Eurozone for nearly 20-years for companies to only offer Temporary Contracts to younger workers due to overly tight labour laws, is comparable in scale and use to the Zero Hours Contracts in the UK - as you seemed to have gone 'missing on that?

How did you justify the Eurozones unemployment rate twice ours in 2017, and why does the Eurozone needs Euro trillions of liquidity and negative interest loans NOW from its central bank , a decade after the financial crash?

Do you understand those questions, as I think they are both quite clear, and fundamental why the UK should want to leave an EU that apparently can't help itself?

Brexit lexicon:
'Talk down the UK' (check)

The UK isn't part of the Eurozone. Do you understand that?
Nor are many other EU states that are part of the EU.
Talk of the Eurozone in the context of Brexit is therefore irrelevant.

Here is a list of Eurozone states, fyi, to prevent any further conflation of 'EU' and 'Eurozone':
Austria,
Belgium,
Cyprus,
Estonia,
Finland,
France,
Germany,
Greece,
Ireland,
Italy,
Latvia,
Lithuania,
Luxembourg,
Malta,
Netherlands,
Portugal,
Slovakia,
Slovenia,
Spain.

The temporary employment situation was discussed very coherently by
Mistigri:
as a factual contribution to the general debate - I would say that the big difference between a UK zero hours contract, and a French temporary contract, is that the latter confers quite significant employment rights including free or nearly free access to an employment tribunal in case of dispute, an absolute right to a fixed number of hours per week, a right to know when those hours will be worked, a right to refuse excessive overtime, a right to be laid off only in strictly controlled circumstances, and a right to a permanent contract if the employee is not formally notified of the end of the temporary term or its renewal, and paid a bonus of 10% of all salaries earned for the duration of the contract.

So comparing the UK precariat and the French precariat is not necessarily appropriate, because French temp contract workers enjoy rights that many permanent UK workers can only dream of. These rights are enforceable because everyone can access the employment tribunal process (although in practice if you have a good case and union support, sensible employers usually settle first).

It's certainly not ideal for so few young people to land permanent contracts, and the French pie is sliced in favour of 50 something workers esp in the public sector or with union muscle in much the same way as the UK pie is split in favour of pensioners and those with housing assets. Nevertheless, it remains the case that even temporary low-paid workers enjoy better employment protections in France than do many permanent employees in the UK.

and
PurplePeppers Tue 04-Jul-17 19:57:01
TheSaurus
You can NOT compare the rates of unemployment in the uk and in France like this.

Because in the uk you have

• loads of part time work (that will not allow you to live on them), zero hours contract and so on, all of which are reducing the number of job seekers even though these are people would will want/need a full time job to be able to live on it.

Whereas in France

• most jobs are full time, there is little flexibility in the market which makes it harder to find another job BUT when you have your job, you will NOT be made redudant etc... Plus there is no part time job etc...

If you were adding all the people who have only been able to find part time job (e.g. Whilst being required to be available 24/7 for example when working in a shop), i suspect that the numbers will be quite similar actually.

plus:
PurplePeppers Tue 04-Jul-17 19:59:44
In terms of real earning, the UK is only country in the EU zone who has seen real wage going down
No other EU country has done so (even if it's lower blabla)

....
I don't think I have anything to add to that.

Just to pick up something that was mentioned earlier by Carolines - indeed, TheaSaurass does use the term 'Ponzi scheme', which is rather an American turn of phrase.

I noticed she also referred to a 'Pulitzer Prize', which is another solid Americanism, unusual in British English. The British equivalent might be the Booker Prize.

Curiouser and curiouser...

Mathsanxiety

Trying to baffle with repeated ballsquirt ain't going to cut it with me, as I am fully aware of what the Eurozone is, I am fully aware the UK is not in it (thank god and Gordon Brown), and I am comparing the UKs situation to the Eurozones as individual countries within - as mentioned within this Financial Times link;

”The New World of Work: recovery driven by rise in temp jobs”

”They call it the “precariat”. In a continent known for strong employee protections, more than half of the eurozone’s young workers are in temporary jobs, churning from one short lived contract to the next.”

”In France, permanent jobs account for just 16 per cent of new contracts, down from a quarter in 2000. In Spain, almost seven in 10 young workers are on temporary contracts. The share of the eurozone’s 15 to 24-year-old workers who are temps is the highest on record, at 52.4 per cent.”

”A deep fracture has emerged in Spain, France, Italy and Portugal over the past 20 years, with an older generation of highly protected permanent employees on one side and a younger generation forced to settle for insecure jobs on the other. That is one reason why youth unemployment surged when the crisis hit.”

“The rules for open-ended contracts in Europe are considered too stringent by employers and they sidestep those regulations by creating non-regular jobs,”

So are you saying that the Eurozone is what it is, and somehow that is better than the Zero Hours in the UK - please do so, and make my day.

mathsanxiety

Followed by yet another personal set of slurs based on Americanisms(?) - who do you think is fecking (thats Irish) posting, President Trump???

At least you rollocks is international, so I can't even attempt to explain it.

Yes, I know that 'fecking' is Irish.
I am Irish myself and very familiar with the term. Your use of it is a bit off somehow. 'Fecking posting' is an odd use of it.

The posts I C&P'd express all I want to say on the question of zero hours, more eloquently than I would have.

The Eurozone is a mixture of mature western capitalist economies and economies that emerged from the Soviet centralised system only a few decades ago (in the case of Germany, both under the same flag). There are economies large and small within it, and economies that are industrial as well as economies that are service and agriculture-oriented. All have different political traditions, political cultures, different traditions of labour relations, different population profiles, different political priorities. Some states have enviable unemployment rates and some have high rates. Some have great balance sheets and some are the opposite. That really is what it is.

I am not sure you really understood that the EU and the Eurozone are two different animals. You conflated the two on more than one occasion upthread.

At least you rollocks is international, so I can't even attempt to explain it.
???

Thea You are perfectly capable of handing out the personal insults yourself.
I have never questioned who you might be as a poster, or where you might be from, (for the record, I don't care) yet you thought it was necessary to ask me where I am from.
You repeatedly ignore my questions, although I have tried to engage with yours.
You accuse math of not answering your questions, then when she does, (again) you call it "ballsquirt" (pretty personal!) and pretend that she hasn't. Did you bother to read the post you demanded?

Squishy

Re your "You repeatedly ignore my questions, although I have tried to engage with yours."

Why do you keep saying that, as if anything it is the other way around e.g. when YOU said there would be no UK 'on shoring' of manufacturing and I showed it was already happening, or you deny you said it in the first place.

Together with trying to twist my quotes I can't always be bothered to argue with you as you go 'personal' - so TELL me, which issues we have been debating, have I failed to engage with you, and we'll debate it to death.

Please remember that we are far apart on our politics, and so sometimes we might appear to agree to disagree - which a perfectly acceptable position, no?

And since when are you Maths spokesperson?

Curiously the debate above was from YOU when asked "why is this the EUs fault".

Understanding what is driving EU workers to the UK, as the Eurozone labour policies are not creating jobs for their own workers, is KEY to the problems many UK citizens saw - so if Maths compare's it to the UK's Zero Hours but then don't want to analyse the similarity - that is her position and should say so, rather than regurgitating others posts not addressing the similarity/size, while negatively commenting on my posting.

For those accusing me of not previously being clear, personlly I can't think what the problem is, unless they don't like the ANSWER.

"I am not sure you really understood that the EU and the Eurozone are two different animals. You conflated the two on more than one occasion upthread."

On the subject we were debating, was it not clear to you from the following Financial Times quote mentioned above?

"”They call it the “precariat”. In a continent known for strong employee protections, more than half of the eurozone’s young workers are in temporary jobs, churning from one short lived contract to the next.”

Look its NOW clear you don't want to compare the above with the very different characteristics and size of UK Zero Hours contracts, which has NOTHING to do with the restrictive labour laws they have in the Eurozone - so may I suggest that next time you either say so, or step back - but by personally criticising another poster for clarity, its a bit lame. IMO