Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

but the alternative is what, the next largest party who made a complete horrocks negotiating £220 bil of Private Finance Initiative contracts???

No

The alternative would be finding someone who is a good negotiator

You would think its not rocket science...but obviously it must be

"We could go over the pre Referendum mistruths".... "but we NOW need to move on."

Given the title of this thread is "Brexit consequences", and op purports to be looking for "observable facts" about the consequences of the Brexit vote so far, its not really that unreasonable to talk about the consequences of Brexit so far is it? If you want us only talk about things that relate to "moving on", why do you keep banging on about past Labour governments? Its almost like you're trying to turn every thread you're on into a monologue on why Conservatives are great and Labour are shit. Its fine if those are your political beliefs, but it seems a bit harsh to berate other posters for daring to answer the question in the OP.

Has anyone been listening to this dead ringers series? There is a great bit on "Brexit Bulldog here" David Davies .

Its ok

He wrote a book about negotiating in 1988

Panic over

Well

Its about how to turn a company around but it includes negotiating

Phew. That's good to know, Rufus.
No-one who has "written" a book on business/deal making in the late eighties has ever turned out to be a confrontational, power hungry, puffed up buffoon full of hot air and bullshit soundbites, nor has anyone of that description ever been responsible for dragging their country's international reputation through the mud.

Exactly squishy exactly

I rest my case

Wait...

Was that sarcasm?

It was. What is it about blusterous business "writers" of the 80s?

I know

Worrying isnt it

I'm always aghast at people who say things like "David is a skilled negotiator" in face of all the evidence. Like Brexit, it seems to be a Religious conviction, and therefore not susceptible to any kind of logic...

"The failure will be the fault of the Tories, Thea, the Tories. DD is a member of the Conservative party. We are leaving the EU because of a referendum called by the Tories. A referendum, that they (the Tories) thought they could win."

We are leaving Europe as Labour in government not just ignored the problems of the EU Single Market on the UK people - but was happy to throw the UK unemployed on the scrap heap and bring in bright new citizens from Europe - as UK youth unemployment also doubled from 2004 to 2010.

So UKIP grew to a trending higher 12% of the national vote from nothing, under Labour - why because the EU was 'working for UK citizens?

• For Remoaners why didn't Labour give the UK a vote Blair said he would, before Brown ratified our entry to the EU via the Lisbon Treaty in December 2007 - as it is highly likely BACK THEN, it would have been Remain.

No, the default position to those who can inherently forget their record in power, is its 'all the Tories fault' - this time Cameron who promised an EU Referendum BEFORE Brown literally crept in the back door to sign, after the photocalls were done out the front.

Along with a Scottish Independence Referendum, its called democracy Conservative style, rather than the Labour leadership knows best.

CardinalSin

"I'm always aghast at people who say things like "David is a skilled negotiator" in face of all the evidence."

Here is David Davis's [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Davis_(British_politician) [political]] record - including Minister of State for Europe.

^Now take the Labour government/ministerial/European experience of Corbyn, MacDonnell and the whole Labour shadow front bench - and put in into a giant pee pot - and I doubt that it equals Davis's experience.* lol

That nice up and coming man Mr Starmer might be 'one for the future' and only THEN will it be a case of 'in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king' - what a future of 'experience' for a party to look forward to.

Areas that voted out generally had low immigration. These areas suffered unemployment and poverty due to deindustrialization and globalisation. Most of this happened en masse in 1980s during Thatcher's neo liberal project.

I am quite interested in those who acknowledge the political turmoil of the past year, yet dispute that it is a direct consequence of Brexit. It gives me a clue on how future consequences will be viewed: If we suffer severe economic turmoil over the next few years (or worse) then no doubt this, too, will be unrelated to brexit and completely unpredictable.

No matter what happens, it wont be brexit's fault. It will be the fault of the EU for not acting they way we were promised they would, or the fault of the opposition for being supportive enough, or the fault of the farmers for not growing things fast enough, or the fault of the businesses for not being loyal enough. Never Brexit. Which makes a thread like this a bit pointless, really; anything bad, no matter how clearly related to Brexit it appears to be, cannot possibly be caused by Brexit, because this would shake its proponent's beliefs too much.

Very true squishy, the leavers are kidding themselves.

Squishy

Re your;

"No matter what happens, it wont be brexit's fault. It will be the fault of the EU for not acting they way we were promised they would, or the fault of the opposition for being supportive enough, or the fault of the farmers for not growing things fast enough, or the fault of the businesses for not being loyal enough. Never Brexit. Which makes a thread like this a bit pointless, really; anything bad, no matter how clearly related to Brexit it appears to be, cannot possibly be caused by Brexit, because this would shake its proponent's beliefs too much."

Nah, look above, 'stuff like the growth of EU and Non EU citizens from 2000, was not due to a secret Labour policy at the time, like everything else from those ignoring the complete Labour legacy of 13-years, its all Thatchers fault.

"Very true squishy, the leavers are kidding themselves."

And those that are 'totes' ignoring the problems in the EU, now heading towards a Federal State of Europe with members losing the power of veto - are what exactly?

Low pay did not begin in 1997. Currently there is very low levels of unemployment. This whilst UK is in the EU. Shame so many of these jobs are zero hour contracts.

There is likely to be unemployment shortages in some sectors post Brexit, such as farming, this is accepted. Wages will not go up.

Nope Thea, I'm afraid you're in the "head in the sand" brigade. Literally everyone realises that this is an issue caused by the Tory party, perpetuated by the Tory party, and all the consequences are down to the Brexit vote.

I'm afraid CCO aren't paying you enough to try and keep this steady supply of bullsh!t up...

And those that are 'totes' ignoring the problems in the EU, now heading towards a Federal State of Europe with members losing the power of veto - are what exactly?

Why are leavers obsessed with the EU's "problems?". Have you seen the UK economy and its dire prospects since last June? Do you have sources for what you say?

Ghost

Are you SERIOUSLY trying to compare mass youth unemployment and 50% on Temp Contracts in the Eurozone - as companies are scared to hire because they can never let them go if business conditions change - or 'the land of milk and honey' OUR youth were told before the Referendum, with the UK Zero Hours Contracts?

• Zero Hours came in late 1990's, I don't see Labour ever recorded how many UK citizens were ever on them, and didn't even mention them on their 'to do' list in their 2010 manifesto - yet funny old world, became a 'serious issue' from June 2010. How brave.

• What percentage of the UK population are on Zero Contracts, how many want to be, and does that anywhere near compare to the youth Temp rate in the Eurozone? How strange you brought it up as a comparison.

How about ou

And then to add to your embarrassment, you try to compare our economy (that has only just slowed down but still with the lowest unemployment rate in 40 odd years) with that cluster-feck called the Eurozone's growth and job creation for several years after the crash?

As we came into this year, with the Eurozone still getting QE type money stimulus from the ECB several years after the crash (now in the Euro trillions to be reversed one day), there was the following unemployment rates;

UK 4.6%
France 9.6%,
Italy 12%,
Spain 18.4%

What was holding the Eurozone back for several years as we grew, apart from fat Brussels governance, shed loads of regulations, and archaic Eurozone protected labour laws EU competitors around the world laugh at - as they take the EU's lunch money, and as Juncker admits, the EU's 'share' of emerging global GDP, is falling towards 15%.

”Europe's glory days at an end, warns Juncker”

How were those 'sources'?

How come no one criticising our government for its negotiating stance, has answered this earlier question I posed;

So OK amateur negotiator folks, the EU apparently wants Euro 100 billion from us without a detailed invoice , which is an EU sticking point apparently - no doubt in your eyes this is Davis fault - so who here thinks the EU is being reasonable and we should pay it, stating why??

Did no one think it was a 'reasonable' request to hold negotiations up, or is it that it goes without saying that anything the EU demands, is beyond criticism?

Thea the UK is currently worst performing economy in Eurozone and has slowest growth of G7 countries. I'd worry about that over unemployment figures in Europe

Some appalling employment practices have been exposed in this country in recent years. Food bank use has rocketed since 2010. The Tories have continually pushed back their target for clearing the deficit.

thea we have contractual obligations to the EU, of course we have to pay.
I'm embarrassed of how badly the UK is behaving. We are the ones who want to leave, the EU don't want us to go. And we are expecting to be able to just run away from our obligations.
We are behaving like the worst kind of bastard in a divorce. I am ashamed to be British at the moment.