Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

I agree wholeheartedly with Squishy that the current turmoil is almost entirely due to the Brexit vote. The lack of competent leadership may not be entirely down to that, although much of that is due to political manoeuvring as a direct result of the vote, with competent politicians coming almost entirely from the Remain camp and therefore not being in a position to go for leadership positions. I like the phrase "centrifugal effect" - that describes what I'm seeing perfectly.

I also disagree with Caroline that the Lib Dems crashed and burned. They substantially increased their share and seats from last election, the problem was they were starting from such a low having been tainted by the previous Tory government.

"They substantially increased their share and seats from last election, the problem was they were starting from such a low having been tainted by the previous Tory government."

Um no. Vote share dropped from 7.9% to 7.4%, the lowest since 1959 despite a greatly increased turnout. They gained 3 seats, and lost 375 deposits. They crashed and burned. All on a very public 2nd referendum pledge.

The LibDems gained 3 seats in Scotland from the even more Remain SNP on an anti-Indyref2 platform. They went backwards in England including Nick Clegg losing his seat. They even let Zac back.

"Before the referendum, the Conservative party was divided on the EU. I think that healing those divisions was a major motivation for Cameron calling the referendum in the first place. It was a gamble, and unfortunately for us it backfired on Cameron."

And the growth of UKIPs vote by frustrated voters in the Conservative Party and Labour voters previously supporting a Labour Party in government in the 2000's, went from what, 2% of the vote to 12% of the vote in 2010 - was all due to Tory bickering?

Labour ratified our EU membership via signing the Lisbon Treaty in December 2007 (when Blair had said the people will have a vote), while the 2005 Conservative manifesto key issues questioned the planning and potential numbers for EU immigration - and Cameron promised an EU Referendum before 2010.

Once again a Labour Party in government, in the early years saying talking about immigration was 'racist', not building anywhere near enough homes as Brown's commissioned 'Barker Report in 2003 told him to before she even KNEW EU numbers - has NO RESPONSIBILITY for anything that happens on their watch - its all the Tories fault, yet again. Pathetic.

Clegg drew a headline telling voter to tactically vote to OUST Leaver MPs from Westminster. Ooops, how did that work out?

Oh yes, keep talking about how the lib dems aren't doing so well, or how everything is labours fault. that'll surely distract from this crap govt heading a shite brexit.

I mean, surely, deep deep down you've got some terrible doubts - you don't feel certain that David Davis is going to pull this off.

OK. The Lib dems are still not running the country. Maybe that's a consequence of Brexit, but probably not in my opinion.

On that topic, I would be interested in knowing what Thea thinks of my previous question, which she may have missed:
I know that there are many on here who are worried about the political turmoil in the UK, for various reasons. In particular those who fear the threat of an anti-business, Marxist Labour seizing power and running the country into the ground.
Do we accept that this is more likely now than it was before the Brexit vote?

Is there anyone who thinks that the current political turmoil we are witnessing isn't a direct (or even indirect) consequence of Brexit, and that it all would have happened anyway?

Hardly a crap government based on their record versus all HM Opposition parties that ‘opposed’ virtually every measure a Conservative administration took from 2010, saying it would COST 1 million jobs rather than create around 3 million – and its the same with Brexit.

Their pathological hatred for the Conservatives and disrespect for the judgement of the people via a Referendum, means this government has to fight their own parliament every step of the way to leave the EU, not just hard arsed Brussels negotiators working for 27 other countries.

Pathetically offering voters a non-existent ‘Soft’ Brexit rather than STAND on de-railing the Brexit, process, UK opposition excuses for national ‘leaders-of-men’ who scurry around Brussels plotting against the government - and are even telling well read financial/business media that ‘Brexit CAN BE STOPPED’, are representing the EU, not this country.

“Politician (Mr V Cable) Who Predicted Financial Crash Says Brexit Can Be Stopped”

The government faces very tough negotiations on EU terms and conditions, and those ‘leaders’ and MPs that did not have the guts to STAND at the last election on either de-railing Brexit or watering it down, are frankly a £70k plus fantastic gilt edged pension ‘the many’ of us will never have, a democratic national disgrace. IMO

I didn't understand your answer, but I take it from that you have complete confidence in David Davis and this govt to deliver a great Brexit for the uk.

Fair enough...

UK businesses who like to plan 3,5, and even longer years into the future, faces a spit UK parliament on Brexit and a self confessed high tax Marxist government in waiting - is it ANY wonder businesses are investing less in growing their companies - as where is the attraction to UK business of that?

Especially when the main opposition party firmly believes that all sustainable 'growth' comes from the State spending/borrowing, and businesses just exist to be a 'cash point' for no doubt ever increasing taxes, to fund their investment 'expertise'.

Go on, abandon the underlining and bolding and go full Capslock, you know you want to....

Thea you can't pin the current state of the economy and the dire outlook on Labour. The current political turmoil is down to the Tories - no clue on Brexit, no forward plan. Most businesses do not want Brexit at all. You were warned.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35636838

Trying to circle back round to the thread title...
This "fighting every step of the way" and dealing with "hard arsed Brussels negotiators working for 27 other countries" on "very tough negotiations on EU terms and conditions" makes getting a good deal on Brexit sound rather challenging. Which, iirc, was one of the predictions of "project fear". I do remember hearing from some sides that if we voted to leave, the EU would be falling over themselves to give us really good deals, because they need us more than we need them etc. We were told the UK would hold all the cards, and that the EU would have no reason not to offer us all the trade benefits we enjoyed within the EU.
So, that's another "project fear" prediction validated.

histinyhands

Put it like this, it is a HUGE undertaking, and if the main HM Opposition party had half a commercial 'little grey cell' between them, they would have worked out back in 2010, and now, that an economy needs a vibrant Private Sector to both build and grow a sustainable economy that pays all the national bills - rather than look to build/keep an enlarged State, via taxation endangering the Private Sector businesses and jobs

So if so ideologically stunted, they STILL have not worked that out, the historically more commercial Tories are the politically competent 'beauties', in a 'f-ugly' Westminster party contest right now.

"UK businesses who like to plan 3,5, and even longer years into the future, faces a spit UK parliament on Brexit and a self confessed high tax Marxist government in waiting - is it ANY wonder businesses are investing less in growing their companies - as where is the attraction to UK business of that?"

...Right, so would you agree that this problematic economic uncertainty over Brexit and an increased likelihood of a "high tax Marxist government" is a direct consequence of Brexit?

Eh? Do you have confidence in David Davis and tm's govt to deliver a great brexit for the uk or not?

The political turmoil is the direct consequence of the misjudged June election.

This in turn was a consequence of Mrs May believing the polls that said she had a 20% lead, which she wanted to combine with the widely held view (not on MN, obvs) that Corbyn was an old joke come back for one last laugh, in order to squash Labour for ten years. Didn't go according to plan, almost entirely her fault.

Mrs May being PM and having the power to call a GE was a direct consequence of Cameron's pathetic sulky cowardice in running away with his tail between his legs after failing to deliver the Remain vote Brussels expected, instead of hanging on and sorting out Article 50, combined with the determined, underhanded campaign remainer Tory MPs fought to ensure one of their own got the top job - usually party members get to vote on the last two candidates but after Leadsom was forced out, May only needed crowning. So IMO the root cause of the present problems is not Brexit, which I welcome, but Cameron.

Davis is an excellent negotiator. My concerns are that he does not have the unqualified support of his party, still rank with anti-democratic remainers, and is faced with an EU which has no interest in negotiating and every intention of trying to humiliate us.

My guess is we will end up walking away and trading with EU members on WTO terms, with no agreement about citizen's rights etc. and tourist access according to current Schengen rules, 3 months for most first world countries, which we will probably reciprocate. Fine by me.

wholly

In all seriousness what have been david davis' negotiating triumphs so far

I will be completely honest and say i dont know much about the man but most of the articles i have read haven't mentioned his negotiation skills

It would be a relief to know that he is the best of the best

Davis is an excellent negotiator.

That remains to be seen.

no interest in negotiating and every intention of trying to humiliate us.

UK is doing that all by itself. The most prominent leaver in the country, Farage isn't even a Tory. His antics since the referendum haven't exactly helped UK-EU relations.

squishy

We could go over the pre Referendum mistruths like 'the EU is the jobs future land of milk and honey for our young' - when the Eurozone youth unemployment was up to 40% in some countries, and current tight employment laws employment conditions suits the older workers, not the 50% of young employed on a Temp basis who have to ASPIRE to getting old - but we NOW need to move on.

I wouldn't mind if the Remainers even acknowledged all the economic problems within the EU, rather than k-e-e-p talking the UK down - as at least it would show SOME balance..

An EU deal where we already conform to all their rules and res should be straight forward based on the mutual trade situation and a wish to work with the UK in the future - but it is clear they possibly fears us outside of the EU, but definitely want to punish us for leaving - and clearly THEIR need for our money to keep funding their Ponzi Scheme experiment, ensures unelected by the people Brussels bureaucrats admitting they are worried about their pensions, shouldn't be running the Brexit show. IMO

“Eurozone faces doom no matter how hard France and Germany try to save it, warns top investment bank”

Yep, come back when we've actually left the EU and we'll see how rosy everything looks then.

apparently, business hates uncertainty more than bad news.

k-e-e-p talking the UK down

how does one do this? Do businesses monitor internet forums and think "oh fuck, mumsnetters don't think much of Brexit we should probably relocate". No, they monitor the political and economic climate of a country and for the UK the forecast is dire.

Ok, thea, so you have finally decided brexit probably won't work but you've lined up your excuses /reasons already.
Is that a fair summary?

"Davis is an excellent negotiator"

"That remains to be seen."

Stating the obvious a few months after the negotiating posturing begins, but the alternative is what, the next largest party who made a complete horrocks negotiating £220 bil of Private Finance Initiative contracts???

So OK amateur negotiator folks, the EU apparently wants Euro 100 billion from us without a detailed invoice , which is an EU sticking point apparently - no doubt in your eyes this is Davis fault - so who here thinks the EU is being reasonable and we should pay it, stating why??

The failure will be the fault of the Tories, Thea, the Tories. DD is a member of the Conservative party. We are leaving the EU because of a referendum called by the Tories. A referendum, that they (the Tories) thought they could win.