Trump (Part 6)

[claig]

More on Trump

It is a Trump world and as the Modi saying goes

“Aab Ki Baar Trump Sarkar”

and as the Stump for Trump Sisters say

"Get on the Trump Train or get the hell out of the way"

Rock'n'roll

"No, Trump can just throw his weight around and there will be panic just like in Davos. Let's wait and see what Trump does. My guess is that he wants to end the EU and there is nothing they can do to save it."

That's not how the IMF works, the executive board approve loans, not the members, the members meet once a year.

Trump doesn't want to end the EU, the economic turmoil would be incredibly bad for the US economy.

Lagarde had been "warning" Trump about tariffs and protectionism. Trump is a complete shift from what the Blairites etc call "the world order". That is finished now, it will be "America First" now and all the bodies and bigwigs who bossed everybody around and "warned" Trump are on their last legs which is why the panic in those circles is so acute.

Trump may pull the plug on some "world order" institutions and then panic will ensue as bigwigs try to save what they can of their institutions.

No one yet knows how far Trump will go, but everybody knows that the entire elite did not want Trump to win and that they all fear what he will do.

Trump certainly won't pull the plug on the IMF or the World Bank, and seeing as you have very little knowledge of how these organisations work then I'd refrain from commenting.

'Trump doesn't want to end the EU, the economic turmoil would be incredibly bad for the US economy.'

All the "experts" said Trump could not win the election, no mainstream media journalists predicted he would win.

My prediction is that Trump wants to end the EU (and it will all be finished within 2 years) and there will be a flight to safety to the US which will be energy independent and will boom as taxes are slashed, foreign cash reserves are repatriated and trade deals are radically restructured after Trump throws his weight around. The EU is in trouble and if they keep insulting Trump it will only get worse for them. Of course all the politically correct idiots in EU governments will be toppled in elections anyway as Europe elects politicians who agree with Trump and get on the Trump Train.

I think it is a revolution and the "experts" don't know the half of what is coming.

Trump certainly won't pull the plug on the IMF or the World Bank, and seeing as you have very little knowledge of how these organisations work then I'd refrain from commenting.

Ha, please impart your insider knowledge, o wonderful expert, pft

"All the "experts" said Trump could not win the election, no mainstream media journalists predicted he would win."

No it was proven here that lots of people said that it was possible.

If the EU ends then the economic chaos that would ensue would mean that one of the US biggest export markets suffers, which means that the US suffers in terms of growth and jobs.

The IMF and World Bank play a vital role in keeping the world economy fairly stable, big shocks and big changes to different macroeconomic markets,the IMF may encourage Trump not to use tariffs etc and he may ignore them, but he won't "pull the plug" as you put it because of the stability it guarantees.

A collapsing EU is not in Trump's favour, neither is creating economic turmoil in the major US markets.

You can sit there and froth with your fantasies all you like, Trump and Brexit always had a good chance of happening, the next stage is far less likely.

"Trump certainly won't pull the plug on the IMF or the World Bank, and seeing as you have very little knowledge of how these organisations work then I'd refrain from commenting."

LOL. Its mumsnet darth. Im sure none of us on here are influencing world changing decisions.

Claig, it'll be interesting to see if they stick with a 'european' or go for a wider world view. Mark Carney could be a serious contender. However, you are right that the Trump influence, cant be ignored. Where the US have traditionally let europe take the lead at the IMF, whilst themselves taking the lead at the world bank, the dire financial position in the EU cant be ignored. Certainly Trump wont ignore the dire situation in Europe.

Darth I think you misunderstand Claigs 'pulling the plug' on world order. Trump (and Claig) are very clear. Theres no room for the corrupt in the new world order. The question for me is, how much will Trump be able to influence draining that filthy swamp too?

"Theres no room for the corrupt in the new world order."

Do you know, I wish I thought this was true. But it simply isn't just looking at the line up Trump has put together, which includes people who have donated to his campaign and fund over the years, and others who have conflicts of interest, not to mention Trump's own ones. It just isn't going to happen.

My comment about the working of the IMF is that Claig suggested Trump could throw his weight around and then get his own way, which isn't the way the IMF works, even if the US member of the executive board said they weren't going to approve a loan, it would probably be approved by everyone else.

I'd love to have your optimism for change, but like I said pages previously this isn't going to happen. Trump is merely the ultimate expression of doublethink.

"If the EU ends then the economic chaos that would ensue would mean that one of the US biggest export markets suffers, which means that the US suffers in terms of growth and jobs."

If the EU ends, Germany will lose because the Deutschmark will have to go to its real value rather than the lower artificial EU rate which benefits Germany. German exports will suffer and EU countries will have to pay more for their defence or do deals with America on America's terms. Trump may be friendly with Russia and open up their market of 150 million people in a quid pro quo that benefits America over Germany or if he is not friendly with Russia then European countries will want to be under the American umbrella and will have to accept deals that are favourable to the US - no more tax threats against Microsoft, Google, Amazon etc

Either way, Germany probably loses and America wins, plus America will boom internally as its dispalces imports with internal production and manufacturing.

'Trump and Brexit always had a good chance of happening'

Do me a favour? Where were you on these boards predicting those. Practically every expert in financial markets and political journalism and among the Oxbridge political class never imagined a Brexit victory and certainly not a Trump victory which is why our idiot politicians nearly all insulted Trump, called him "unfit" and even tried to ban him from entering the country.

Germany (Merkel) deserves to lose, lose at the very least. She is a present-day war criminal.

'My comment about the working of the IMF is that Claig suggested Trump could throw his weight around and then get his own way'

He is already throwing his weight around with China and I bet he eventually gets his way. Trump is against global governance, which is the IMF and all the bureaucrats and bigwigs, he is against globalism, he is for "America First". How fast he can change things and whether the US Establishment manage to stop him or persuade him not to, we have yet to see. But Trump didn't go through all this not to make huge change.

Germany is just one economy in the EU, if it has an economic crisis then the US will be effected, if the whole of the EU has an economic crisis the UK and the US will be negatively effected. Especially if there is a melt down in 2 years, it will hit home to roost just when Trump is back on the campaign trail again.

The EU will probably buy their equipment from the mostly from the EU, much as they currently do rather than significantly boosting American arms sales.

American manufacturing isn't returning in the way it was in the 1950s/60s, you've been duped, a low tax, low pay, low rights economy is coming, because that is all Trump has ever provided for his own, why should he provide more for the poor sods who wanted something different.

"But Trump didn't go through all this not to make huge change."

Trump went through all this to benefit his own profile, and people like him.

If he makes a positive change that's great, but it won't happen, he is and always has been all about Donald Trump and what he gets from a deal, this is no great act of philanthropy.

he is and always has been all about Donald Trump and what he gets from a deal, and Hillary was for what, exactly?

"My comment about the working of the IMF is that Claig suggested Trump could throw his weight around and then get his own way, which isn't the way the IMF works, even if the US member of the executive board said they weren't going to approve a loan, it would probably be approved by everyone else. "

But you intentionally ignore the perilous state of the EU. The EU is financially bankrupt. Trumps strength is indeed the fact that europe is currently so weak. Its a mistake to ignore that. The EU commision, and now clearly the IMF, continue to fiddle whilst rome burns.

The US trade deficit is its second largest after China. The US exports $49 billion to Germany and imports $124 billion

Trump mentioned China and Japan and hoe "they are killing s on trade" but he rarely mentioned Germany, but it is clear that trade with Germany will have to be rebalanced and Germany will have to pay much more for defence

'Especially if there is a melt down in 2 years, it will hit home to roost just when Trump is back on the campaign trail again. '

America is refocusing internally. It will boom with new infrastructure, airports and return of manufacturing, steel, coal, oil and gas. Trump is turning the tap on in a huge internal market. Wall Street is already hitting record highs because they are predicting business booming

'The EU will probably buy their equipment from the mostly from the EU, much as they currently do rather than significantly boosting American arms sales. '

I doubt it because when teh chips are down, Germany can't save them militarily against Russia or even Turkey if it wanted to invade Greece etc. Greece will buy its kit from America in order to be protected, and much of Europe will prefer America over Germany

DarthPlagueis, you underestimate Trump just like our Oxbridge political class did. You aren't one of that lot are you?

Trump didn't need to go through all this aggro and end up hated by Soros's groups of left wingers etc, he had a great life. He challenged the entire US Establishment, the entire Republican Establishment who didn't want him and the entire world establishment who didn't want him and he did it for America and the American people because he really meant that "we are led by very, very stupid people" and the country is 20 trillion in debt and is losing $800 billion on trade every year and Trump asked "who are these people who make these deals? How stupid are they?"

Trump is sick of flying into China and Dubai and seeing fantastic buildings and airports and then flying back to La Guardia and thinking it is a third world airport. He has had enough, that is why he intends to "make America great again" like a billionaire businessman can and that an Oxbridge political class never can.

You know, claig, I'm reading all your posts about the US in relation to Europe and Germany, but also China, etc, and it's like WWII never happened. Or Bosnia, or Kosovo.
We are already seeing polarisation in many countries, including the US, and across Europe. Much more hate speech and nationalist movements. You may think it's great, but only if you are a sociopath that wants to see widespread conflict and eventually war.
Do you even begin to grasp the serious consequences that breaking up the EU could have?
It's one thing to put some breaks on it, but altogether different to want to break it in the middle of an economic crisis that you say Trump will create or increase.

Your happy go lucky, stick it up to the establishment, naive, alt-right attitudes are callous and dangerous.

I do sincerely hope that none of that dangerous crap you predict Trump will cause will happen.

And I sincerely hope that you take 5 minutes to think a little about the consequences of what you're wishing for.

Your little nice corner of the world could easily become another Syria. Or get back to rationing and fear of WWII.
And if you are not aware of how quickly things can turn bad, I suggest you read some history. Recent history.

Practically every expert in financial markets and political journalism and among the Oxbridge political class never imagined a Brexit victory and certainly not a Trump victory which is why our idiot politicians nearly all insulted Trump, called him "unfit" and even tried to ban him from entering the country.

Again, not true. Of course it was always considered a possibility. Or nobody would have been worried. Those are two campaigns that attracted unpresidented attention and debate because of the quite possible outcomes.

The problem is that neither Brexit campaigners nor Trump believed they'd win.
Brexit leaders had no idea what to do with a victory (still don't) and neither does Trump. Have you seen such a mess of creating an administration before? Most candidates will have an idea of who to get in, but clearly not Trump.

It's good to see that Republicans are not sore losers. Or not?

In North Carolina they are leaving the new Democratic Governor almost without powers.

The leaving governor refused to concede the election for almost a month while allies challenged the election results.

This is a state that had to have congressional districts changed by the Supreme Court for racial gerrymandering.

And because images are worth a thousand words:

If he's not careful, he will be impeached or labelled the crookedest president the US has ever had.

Trump will be impeached

At the rate we are winning I think not

Sorry, missed the link.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/dec/01/donald-trump-business-interests-conflicts

Plus, has anyone noticed how Trump cancelled a press conference that he promised for the 15th December about his conflict of interests?

Donald Trump canceled his planned press conference on how he’ll extricate himself from his business

Or postponed to sometime in January

Hope the date in January doesn't clash with the 7 hour deposition in court he tried to wriggle out of also due in Jan. He pulled the "I'm too important"card but no, he has to attend especially as he is the one doing the suing, and the person he is going against has offered to end the litigation and asked that they both donate to Veterans charity. But nooo, the Donald presses ahead.

"Mr Trump and his businesses have been involved in at least 3,500 legal actions over the past three decades.

A group of lawyers in the US recently decided not publish a report on the President-elects strategic use of litigation, which they described as "baseless", because they were afraid he would launch baseless litigation against them"

His ego won 't let him lose anything or discuss diplomatically. Doesn't bode well for the next four years.