Excited about the Labour leadership announcement

[Badgoushk]

For full disclosure I'm a Jeremy Corbyn supporter. I'm quite excited and hopeful that he's won again. Anyone else feeling it?!

[PigletWasPoohsFriend]

There is also the fact that if the next GE is in 2020 a large proportion of the Tory vote in 2015 will also be dead.

What a nasty remark.

Aren't you delightful!

[ClaudiaApfelstrudel]

yeah, I am delightful! thanks

are you disputing that in 2020 a large percetage of the Tory vote will not have passed on?

[Gasp0deTheW0nderD0g]

I don't know the stats, but I would be surprised to find that the Tories' majority came largely from people in their 80s. I know people get more likely to vote as they age, but to that extent?

IpsosMori don't seem to think so, anyway.

[sandyholme]

Talking about 'Stereotypes' you can't get more stereotypical then where the majority of Labour votes came from .

Looking at the breaks Labour achieved 50%-18% among council house dwellers and a massive 65% -23% in the Black and Minority Ethnic group !

The Conservative vote was much more balanced across all the other subsections post 18-25 !

Misconceptions i am afraid about the Conservative vote. However, the perceptions about where the Labour vote comes from has been reinforced by the MORI survey.

I love how a certain poster is basing her evidence (against all opinion polls , which always underestimate Conservative overestimate Labour support) on 500 votes in a parish council !.

[Lalsy]

Yes, Claudia, but the point is that a government doing badly in bye-elections is normal - unless the opposition is ahead for much of the cycle, they usually go on to lose. So at this stage is we have a snap election, or soon if we have a 2020 election, Labour needs to be winning loads and making inroads into the tory vote. And if 2020, we have another 23 seats to win because of the boundary changes. So holding its own is failing.

[ClaudiaApfelstrudel]

Lalsy I'm aware that a trend is that doing badly in by-elections is somewhat 'normal' for a government. That trend has more recently wobbled though and most opinion polls currently favour skewing percentages to favouring 'shy Tories' as that would reflect the 2015 G Election. The opinion polls were wrong in the 2015 GE, they were wrong in the Brexit election. Why are we suddenly convinced they are right?

I don't believe anyone to be saying it will be easy for JC to win - My initial point was that the MSM and the BBC are painting him as 'unelectable' which to me is not the case. He is damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. Everything is JC's fault according to them.

He's a decent enough chap and would make a good leader. I disagree with him over the EU as many others in the Labour party do but I can see the greater good he is proposing.

The alternative is a Tory party with no policies, no imagination and yet more public owned industries for them to sell off to their chums.

[Lalsy]

Ah, no, that's where we differ Claudia . I think the alternative is a Labour Party with a decent leader standing up and fighting for the poor and vulnerable. It just isn't true the Beeb and all the press are painting him as unelectable - again see the NS link I posted upthread. It specifically says he is not unelectable, but describes the (large) obstacles Labour has to overcome (and doesn't consider the possibility of an early election). Wth personal ratings worse than "Don't Know", worst opposition leader leader ratings in recent history blah de blah, I think "unelectable" in common chat is pretty accurate. Labour would have to do astonishingly well to win (even allowing for some margin of error in the polls). And I think for a large numbers of voters, he is unelectable because of all the IRA/STW/Hezbollah/Saleh stuff which has been discussed loads on this thread, so I won't bore you with it again.

The polls were actually pretty close for both the GE and the referendum. I posted a link to all the Brexit polls upthread, showing how close it was and how some showed a slight Leave majority, some Remain. And for the GE, they (mostly) predicted a hung parliament as I remember and in fact we got a tiny majority govt.

[PigletWasPoohsFriend]

are you disputing that in 2020 a large percetage of the Tory vote will not have passed on?

Well if my cancer keeps spreading I won't be here in 2020 either so a Labour voter gone.

Awful awful thing for you to say.

Just about sums up some JC supporters.

[ClaudiaApfelstrudel]

Laisy you make a good argument - I guess we shall see

[ClaudiaApfelstrudel]

I'm not over the moon with JC either. I still don't really know where he stands on Brexit and yes there are question marks as opinion polls suggest. I though his speech was very good at the conference.

[Rainbunny]

I don't mind JC personally, and whatever else I might think of his competence he has moved the Labour party indisputably to the left which is good. I didn't care of Smith really but I liked that his policy proposals were just as left wing (they had to be really I know to stand a chance). So when JC departs I hope his successor keeps the party to the left.

One reason I would never vote for JC though is McDonnell. That man is dangerously incompetent as Shadow Chancellor and I believe a poisonous influence - he's absolutely Iago and frankly I think he is more capable of pushing through disastrous policies and doing real damage than anyone else in the leadership.

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

Many people seem to really dislike McDonnell but see Corbyn as a really nice man

How are they different McDonnell can come across as very arrogant but then so can Corbyn when he doesn't like the way he is being questioned. They both have the same outlook/opinions on how the party should be led, agree with political policies, both have turned a blind eye when it suits, both openly supported terrorists groups and Corbyn never seems to make any apology for McDonnell or force him to

Corbyn allows McDonnell to do his dirty work he just comes across differently but I can't see any difference in their politics or how they do politics

[Rainbunny]

Well I agree that they are extremely interlinked - if you want JC as leader you will get Mcdonnell as part of the package and I agree that JC is just a culpable for McDonnell's actions. JC has already refused point blank to get rid of McDonnell after it was suggested to him as a way to bring the PLP back into the fold.

The difference between them is that McDonnell can actually achieve things which makes him dangerous, whereas JC couldn't lead his way out of a paper bag IMO.

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

I wonder if Corbyn would get rid of him to make the party more electable

That wouldn't got down well with the far left

[Me2017]

It's going to be interestig. Pity they are all men. When do women get a chance? The Tories are the ones looking pro women and women at the top now. Labour needs to get its finger out and have loads of very senior women in property important shadow cabinet roles.

[LittleHoHum]

The puppet doesn't get rid of the puppet master.

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

They have Emily Thornberry and Diane Abbott in the shadow cabinet

neither unsurprisingly seem popular

[PigletWasPoohsFriend]

Labour needs to get its finger out and have loads of very senior women in property important shadow cabinet roles.

They don't. Thornberry and Abbott.

Neither are great advocates of anything.

[MyBeloved]

Diane 'I believe in state education for everyone so long as I don't have to send my child to one' Abbott? How can anyone take her seriously?!

[BakewellTartAgain]

Saw Thornberry having a blast of moral indignation at critics of Shami's peerage. (She was on the Labour fringe Liberty panel, its on iPlayer.)

Each time I see her I dislike her more.

Ans Shami herself has joined ourEmily as respecter of the working man with her quip at conference begging not being left alone with Essex man. You couldn't plan a more toxic mix to alienate their former wc voting base imo.

[Lalsy]

They are all awful. I try really hard not to criticise women in politics but.....

[LittleHoHum]

What I don't understand is that the Labour party have some truly amazing female MP's. They need to get a decent just left of centre leader and then promote some of these women.

Talk about a waste of talent.

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

I doubt there will be many in the shadow cabinet that don't fawn over Corbyn and marvel at his brilliance

Agree there are great female labour mp's who may not always agree with the way he is leading the party or his policies

[Lalsy]

I agree - I so admire the way thy keep going and support each other in the face of vile trolling and abuse, as well.

[PigletWasPoohsFriend]

At a Labour rally today, people were calling for Clive Lewis to go for his views on defence, which are actually Labour party policy.

This however was at the Tory party conference. So they were attacking each other rather than the Tories.

You couldn't make it up.