Ukip in crisis: Nigel Farage could resign again

[claig]

Oh my God, what are they doing to the people's party?

They've done us up like a kipper for the second time in less than a week.
There's 4 million votes on the line and they are playing us like a fiddle, having a right laugh.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11605216/Ukip-in-crisis-live.html

I know he won for the Tories, but in general Essex is Tory.

The authors of 'Revolt on the Right' predicted that Clacton was the most UKIP friendly seat in the country and that was before Carswell defected. I think Carswell and the Tories would have lost the seat. I personally don't believe that the majority of voters vote for an MP, but for a party. I didn't even know who my MP was until last week and I think there are lots of voters like me who don't pay attention to individuals but to parties instead.

'I'm sure 'ordinary people' would approve of his refusal to waste public funds unnecessarily. It would be somewhat 'metropolitan elite' to grab it all.'

I don't and I am sure many UKIP voters don't because our party will not receive that money while Establishment parties will receive the short money which will help them defeat us. We are 4 million voters and the Conservatives and Labour are about 11 million each. I think it is arrogant of idealistic head in the clouds Carswell to decide not to take short money which will help the party when the Conservatives and Labour will get their money.

“No one is bigger than the party..."

When it comes to UKIP, that's not really true, is it?

True, because without Farage there is no party because Farage alone appeals to millions of voters and by 2020 it will be millions more than now. Banks and Desmond understand that and Wheeler (who said he would rejoin the Tories if Boris was leader) doesn't seem to understand that.

...not to take short money which will help the party when the Conservatives and Labour will get their money.

The Conservatives will not get any short money - it's only for opposition parties. Since it relates to supporting parliamentary activities, it wouldn't be appropriate for e.g. UKIP to use it for other purposes.

I'm amazed you didn't know who your MP was, when you seem very interested in politics. Have you become politically engaged after reading that UKIP book? What are the chances of the authors predicting UKIP success in Clacton and the existing Clacton MP defecting to UKIP?

'The Conservatives will not get any short money - it's only for opposition parties. '

Thanks, I didn't know that. Are the Greens taking their short money?

'Since it relates to supporting parliamentary activities, it wouldn't be appropriate for e.g. UKIP to use it for other purposes.'

Is it against the rules to employ 15 staff to do research etc?

'I'm amazed you didn't know who your MP was, when you seem very interested in politics.'

I like politics but I don't particularly care about the individuals. I vote for policies and parties. I didn't know who my UKIP candidate was or who my Tory MP was until a poster said that her UKIP candidate was an Elvis impersonator. I googled it and found that he was my candidate too and that was when I discovered who my Tory MP was, whom I had never heard of in all these years. I don't vote for them because they are good people, I vote for parties.

'Have you become politically engaged after reading that UKIP book?'

I haven't read the book. I don't get enough time to read whole books. I just flip through the net when I get time. I have liked politics since Thatcher was in power.

'What are the chances of the authors predicting UKIP success in Clacton and the existing Clacton MP defecting to UKIP?'

I read somewhere that they gave a seminar in Parliament and Carswell was there and heard them say that his seat was the most UKIP friendly. However, I think Carswell does have principles and believes in them, so it made sense for him to follow his beliefs and to defect at that time. But I don't think Carswell will do too well in UKIP because it strikes me that he does not share enough of the same instincts as most of the people who vote UKIP. But time will tell.

Carswell has ruled himself out as a possible leader for UKIP as far as I know and i think that is a good thing because Carswell couldn't inspire or get enough ordinary people to vote for him. His ideas are too highbrow and he doesn't share the instincts of the people who vote UKIP.

Farage, on the other hand, is exceptional and that is why he has been able to transform UKIP from a fringe party to Britain's 3rd largest party. If the Establishment don't succeed in finishing UKIP and if Farage is still in charge in 2020 then UKIP will be a huge threat to Labour and possibly the Conservatives too if they mess up during their 5 years.

"Clacton was previously estimated by Revolt on the Right authors Matthew Goodwin and Robert Ford to be the most Ukip-friendly seat in the country (economically deprived, elderly, white, anti-immigrant) and tonight's poll vindicates that judgement. While Carswell's strong personal following has helped, 57 per cent of Ukip supporters say they are voting that way because they "like Ukip", compared to 34 per cent who say they "like Carswell" and 9 per cent who say they are casting a protest vote. Expect these figures to be cited by those who argue that the former Tory MP has cynically jumped ship in order to avoid defeat next year. Immigration is by far the main concern for Ukip voters (57 per cent), followed by the EU (13 per cent) and the cost of living (6 per cent)."

www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/08/ukip-44-points-ahead-tories-clacton-election-poll

"Expect these figures to be cited by those who argue that the former Tory MP has cynically jumped ship in order to avoid defeat next year."

That and the FACT THAT TO-DATE, unless UKIP turns to 'the dark side' a sitting Conservative MP, they wouldn't have ever had a Westminster MP representative.

Trust in a home grown U-kipper must be an issue and in thin margins the difference between coming first or second.

I listened to Carswell on a political programme over the weekend, and although I understand that his local approval rating is based on his work for his constituency - when talking about big picture politics he does not talk to the electorate like Farage, he gives them 'a brain fuck' and they come away thinking whaaaaat?

P.S. Farage has just been given a hard time on Question Time, and although he explained why he didn't end up resigning quite well (IMO), not ONE person clapped, which seemed to surprise him

Another stellar performance by Monsieur Fromage.
The more he appears on TV, the more votes the Establishment loses.

I thought he'd withdraw from the programme after all today's events. But I was wrong. I thought he did really well. And got applause too. He does talk a lot of sense and answers questions. And people agreed with him about the unfairness of the first past the post system.

Claig, why assume that when UKIP mess up it is down to some mysterious third party, whereas when (in your eyes at least) they do well, it is solely down to them?

It really is blatantly obvious that UKIP are more than capable of messing things up and imploding all by themselves without any outside intervention whatsoever. And Farage was very obviously losing it on Election Night and has continued to do so to this day.

'It really is blatantly obvious that UKIP are more than capable of messing things up and imploding all by themselves'

Not one week after an election success of gaining nearly 4 million votes. It is the teenage whizzkids in their think tanks at work, the ex-Tories and the politically correct crew waiting to strike when the iron is hot.

Claig lives in Russia....so only knows the 'heavy hand' of the State (rather than own English MP). lol

claig
Are the Greens taking their short money?

Yes, but it's around £212,000 - about a third of UKIP's. Carswell wasn't arguing that all of UKIP's short money should be rejected.

I like politics but I don't particularly care about the individuals. I vote for policies and parties.

But a vital part of politics is MPs representing their constituencies/constituents - representing the 'ordinary people' that you speak of so often in relation to UKIP. As for caring about policies and parties rather than individuals - you care about Farage, without whom UKIP is not UKIP. You say he's 'exceptional' - as a UKIP salesman, maybe. I don't think he'd make a good MP. (What has he achieved as an MEP?)

Clacton was previously estimated by Revolt on the Right authors Matthew Goodwin and Robert Ford to be the most Ukip-friendly seat in the country (economically deprived, elderly, white, anti-immigrant) and tonight's poll vindicates that judgement.

If the Clacton 2015 result was all about UKIP, rather than Carswell, please explain why UKIP chose not to field a candidate in 'the most Ukip-friendly seat in the country' against Carswell (then Tory) in the 2010 general election.

'But a vital part of politics is MPs representing their constituencies/constituents'

This is what the metropolitan elite keep telling us but I don't agree. What percentage of a constituency ever seek help from their MP? Couldn't a party just have an office with a contact that is supposed to sort constituents' problems out? When you write to an Ombudsman, you don't care which individual deals with it as long as it gets sorted out.

'As for caring about policies and parties rather than individuals - you care about Farage'

Yes, but only because I agree with most of his policies and most of what he says. It has nothing to do with how excellent a performer he is. He makes sense to me, he speaks common sense, that is why I like him. Cameron is a fairly good performer, but he is a moderniser who wanted to hug hoodies and who installed a rooftop wind turbine on his roof and wanted to introduce minimum alcohol pricing, and thatdoesn't make sense to me, smacks of teenage advisers from Oxbridge in think tanks and metropolitan elites in W1A third sector charidees, and is too progressive for me.

'You say he's 'exceptional' - as a UKIP salesman'

He is exceptional in his ability to speak common sense and in his courage in facing down the tricks of the metropolitan elite and outwitting them at every turn while articulating what the majority of ordinary people think. We have seen nobody like him in British politics. That is why he terrifies the entire Oxbridge Establishment. They know he resonates with the people and that their whole game could well be up.

'I don't think he'd make a good MP. (What has he achieved as an MEP?)'

I don't really care because I think the metropolitan elite overdo how important a constituency MP is. I think an office and a customer support representative could deal with constituents' problems. Farage on the other hand is a voice for common sense in a barren desert of metropolitan political correctness and W1A Westminster lunacy. As an MEP, Farage has articulated a common sense foreign policy, appeared on numerous TV channels lambasting the Brussels bureaucracy and pointing out their foreign policy mistakes and has taken UKIP to being Britain's largest party in Strasbourg while being constantly vilified by the Oxbridge Establishment and their well-funded teams of metropolitan minions and helpers.

'please explain why UKIP chose not to field a candidate in 'the most Ukip-friendly seat in the country' against Carswell (then Tory) in the 2010 general election.'

My guess is because at that time, UKIP were pursuing a Tory friendly policy of not standing against candidates who wanted to leave the EU. But in 2015, UKIP ignored the pleas of Tory MPs who wanted to leave the EU and who asked UKIP not to stand against them, and UKIP told them, join us or we will take you on. Panic then set in in Tory safe seats and some MPs thought hard about whether they should join UKIP. After the success of the European elections, Farage decided that the gloves were off and UKIP was coming and that they better watch out. The rest is history.

"Mr Farage told Sky News: “There is one person within Ukip agitating for a change and for a leadership election – he hasn’t had the courage to break cover but he must make his mind up; is his future with Ukip or not?” He also insisted he had full support from most within Ukip, and condemned the rift as a Conservative party attempt to damage the party. “To read the ludicrous headlines in some of today’s newspapers makes you realise that actually this is really about a conservative attempt and a Conservative lobby to try and destabilise Ukip and to use one or two people within who are disaffected,” he said."

www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/farage-puts-pressure-anonymous-ukip-rebel

Teenage whizzkids at it again? They need to get up earlier in the morning to outwit Farage.

I really don't get where you get this idea that only the metropolitan elite think that MPs should actually represent their constituents. In my experience, that is viewed as the most valuable part of their work across the entire country, and indeed it is MPs in the poorest parts of the country, including rural parts, who do most constituency work. And it really isn't something that they could just delegate to an office: there are many occasions when an inquiry from an MP gets answers and action that an inquiry from some office employee simply will never, ever achieve.

There's also a purely pragmatic element to it. If an MP is useless as a constituency MP, trust me, word gets around. There's a well-known mantra amongst politicians that, if in doubt about any course of action or inaction, they should stop to think about how they'd feel if whatever it is were plastered across their local paper. You can be certain that if constituents can never get hold of their MP and he consistently ignores their requests for help whilst drawing hefty expenses and swanning round the country doing photo opportunities in pubs, that will end up on the front page of the local paper and he will find himself out of a job after the next election.

Good points, Icimoi. They are public servants and it is good that they are held to account if they don't help constituents out.

It would be nice if that were the case, Icimoi, but unfortunately there are some seats that are just so safe, the MP could desert the constituency from one election to the next and still get re-elected.
Come to think of it, those are the kind of seats party leaders usually get; I'm not sure how much Cameron has done for the good folks of Witney recently.

Actually, claig, we haven't been on the same thread for a while, and I have been wanting to ask - do you think UKIP's MP should have claimed the maximum cash available, or not?

Yes because those are the rules and the Greens will take all their money and so will Labour. Why should 4 million voters be denied their party of choice (the people's party) being denied what they are entitled to under the rules which are made by the metropolitan elite because one MP thinks it is wrong to take money that the party is entitled to.

I agree with millionaire UKIP backer, Arron Banks, that Carswell is effectively letting nearly 4 million voters down. The Greens will benefit from their money and our ex-Tory MP will deny the people's party what they are entitled to.

.”Carswell’s opposition to accepting the full £650,000 of Short Money that Ukip are entitled to after the general election incited fury among many in the party who believed that the party needed the money to represent the four million who voted for Ukip last week.

“He's shown his intention that he's prepared to do that type of thing and for that reason I'd rather have no MPs than one whose interests don't like with Ukip,” Banks said. “No one is bigger than the party and the kind of shenanigans that are going on don't give me any confidence.”

The Establishment and the teenage advisers are laughing up their sleeves saying "that will slow UKIP down", but Farage has trumped them and Carswell by saying we won't take any short money and will get all the funding from other sources. But I think it is wrong that UKIP have had to do that while all the other opposition parties will take their short money.

Article right from the top, the Guardian's executive editor, Jonathan Freedland. Panic among the metropolitan elite.

"Ukip looks hilarious. But soon we won’t be laughing"
...
One donor called for Farage to be replaced by “something quieter”. Farage, that scourge of the metropolitan elite, could not be reached because he was lunching at the Ivy – and was said to be “only on his first bottle”.
...
The reaction of the Question Time audience was telling. No longer chuckling at his politically incorrect jokes, they turned on him for being a hypocrite
...
The threat [to Labour] would become sharper still if Ukip evolved, forging a message that looked left on economics and right on culture – with, say, the party’s deputy leader, Paul Nuttall, taking over at the top. In continental Europe, similar movements have thrived, even supplanting the traditional parties of the working class. That could happen here. It could happen to Labour.

The events of the last week may look like a joke – the hapless antics of a fringe party. But given what’s at stake, pretty soon few of us will be laughing."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/15/ukip-party-labour-heartlands-left

The metropolitan elite aren't laughing, but UKIP voters are ROFL. The people's revolution continues.

They thought they had done us up like a kipper with their plots, they thought that UKIP were a bunch of mere clots, they were having a laugh in their metropolitan mansions, but now there is panic when UKIP is mentioned.

claig
Is 'Tory friendly policy' a euphemism for (positive spin on) not wasting money/resources and saving face, where there is no chance of a victory?

If Clacton was the 'most UKIP friendly seat in the country', it's odd that Carswell's majority as a UKIP candidate shrank from 12.5k (October 2014 by election) to 3.5 k (General Election) in seven months. At the same time, the second (Tory) candidate's votes nearly doubled (from 8.7 k to 16.2 k).

As for the short money fiasco, with Carswell highly criticised for not wanting to take all of the money. Did Farage forget/not read the UKIP manifesto section on 'Cutting the cost of Westminster'? (Interesting that UKIP are now rejecting the money altogether - a belated attempt to take the moral high ground or just petulance?)

The more UKIP is in the public eye, the greater the opportunity for cracks and contradictions to appear.

Farage, that scourge of the metropolitan elite, could not be reached because he was lunching at the Ivy – and was said to be “only on his first bottle”.

Farage, the London dwelling, privately educated ex city trader, dining at the Ivy for lunch? Very 'metropolitan elite'.

Now there is the matter of vigorous complaints about the behaviour of anti UKIP protestors...only to find UKIP has infiltrated one such group, with its representative inciting anti UKIP activity. (So much for plain talking and railing against the deception of others.)

www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/16/ukip-spy-who-infiltrated-protest-group-tried-to-encourage-abuse-of-farage

I don't think UKIP in crisis.
I do wish people could vote for who they want to, without others resorting to childish insults.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3083976/The-incredible-sulk-week-Left-frothing-fury-fellow-Britons-wicked-stupid-vote-Tories-better-shows-contempt-ordinary-people.html

'Is 'Tory friendly policy' a euphemism for (positive spin on) not wasting money/resources and saving face, where there is no chance of a victory?'

No it is a policy that some Tory MPs wanted in order not to have to compete with UKIP candidates who would take some of their vote and let Labour in the door. But for this election, UKIP asked what is in it for us and the answer was nothing.

'f Clacton was the 'most UKIP friendly seat in the country', it's odd that Carswell's majority as a UKIP candidate shrank from 12.5k'

Yes because in a FPTP general election former Tory voters went back to the Tories in order to stop Labour getting in with the SNP. Under a proportional system, this would not have happened.

'Did Farage forget/not read the UKIP manifesto section on 'Cutting the cost of Westminster'? (Interesting that UKIP are now rejecting the money altogether - a belated attempt to take the moral high ground or just petulance?) '

No because Farage wanted to cut the Department of Energy and Climate Change etc but not unilaterally cut the money that opposition parties are entitled to. My guess is that some of the UKIP thinkers have realised that ex-Tory Carswell has put them in a spot and may not back down, so the best way out is to say OK we won't take any of it and thereby take the wind out of ex-Tory Carswell's sails. He wanted some of it for his office, but what this means for that I don't know.

'Farage, the London dwelling, privately educated ex city trader, dining at the Ivy for lunch? Very 'metropolitan elite'.'

Absolutely not. The Ivy is open to the entire British public, not just the publicly paid for metropolitan elite. Bob Crow dined at the Ritz and that is how it should be. If it is good enough for the publicly funded metropolitan elite then it is good enough for the people.

'only to find UKIP has infiltrated one such group'

This is standard security procedure. the police often infiltrate groups in a similar way and Farage's security team presumably needed to know what protest groups were intending to do.

BigfatNessy
Two things strike me about the Daily Mail article:

1. The sheer volume of negative comments and stereotypes Sandbrook uses to describe the very people he cricises for their negativity against the Tories.

1. His failure to mention the extraordinary success of the Tory election campaign, for which two negative concepts were key - the 'no more money' letter/suggestion that Labour could not be trusted with the economy; the perpetuation of the idea that voting Labour = voting for Labour controlled by the SNP.

Impossible to take such an unbalanced article seriously.