SNP and oil prices!!!

[HappydaysArehere]

I would love to hear from you lovely Scots people.(my grandad was a Fraser). Before the referendum there
was a lot of talk about how Scotland was really wealthy due to the price of oil. Independence, as I recall it, was largely based on the assumption that oil prices would increase. Now that oil prices have lowered do you still have the same assurance that Scotland is best as an independent idea or has this disappaited? The SNP has been particularly quiet on the subject. What are your views? Also, how do you feel about a large representative of SNPs in Parliament? Am I correct in feeling great trepidation as I must admit to a feeling that the SNP is largely based on emotional, Nationalistic hot air and
lack of reality in the modern world. There you go..... I am awaiting hostile reactions. I am only half Scottish and I don't live in your lovely Scotland! Get going, am I completely wrong?

I'm not Scottish but it's pretty clear to me that the Scots (thankfully) dodged a real bullet.

Had they have voted for independence then right now their economy would have been deep poo.

Plus the SNP can still blame the Tories or "Westminster" for anything they don't like.

The argument for independence was never predicated on oil prices; oil is a nice bonus but not an essential part of our economy. Had we voted Yes, we would still be negotiating our exit from the rUK and would have been in exactly the same place economically as we are right now.

As for trepidation at a large contingent of SNP MPs come May, have a look at their policies, and listen to what their representatives are saying. You might find your fears allayed a little.

The argument for independence was never predicated on oil prices; oil is a nice bonus but not an essential part of our economy. Had we voted Yes, we would still be negotiating our exit from the rUK and would have been in exactly the same place economically as we are right now.

This Without^ oil, Scotlands GDP was essentially the same as rUK. Independence never depended on the oil - that would be a ridiculous thing to do as oil is a very finite resource.

Am I correct in feeling great trepidation as I must admit to a feeling that the SNP is largely based on emotional, Nationalistic hot air and
lack of reality in the modern world.

Of course not. SNP have been running Scotland pretty competently for several years now. SNP in WM just means Scots might get a bit of representation for a change.

I do hope you are right.

Oil and gas receipts were estimated at 10% of government spending and 3-4% of GDP in the SNP independence booklet. So if they half, then an independent scotland would have had to fine 5% savings on expenditure or borrowing.
The SNP planned to run a budget deficit even when oil income was included, so it was essential to thier spending promises.

We have no idea what oil prices might be like in the future; no-one forecast the slump. Relying heavily on oil revenues for day to day running costs would be foolish for any state, and unnecessary for one as rich in other natural resources as ours. So yes, there might have had to be cuts, but they'd have been for the "nice extras" (maybe large infrastructure projects) rather than the core essentials. (Education, NHS etc).

The argument for independence was never predicated on oil prices; oil is a nice bonus but not an essential part of our economy.

Bwhahahahahahahaha

REALLY!?!?! REALLY!!?!

Most of the SNP economic case for independence came from exaggerated claims of how many barrels would be drilled and a (now obviously) sky high price.

According to the Energy secretary this would have left a £18.6 billion hole in the SNP projections. A hole that somehow would have had to be filled. Of course the pro-independence people will dismiss this as scaremongering and not believe the figures because it comes from Westminster. Instead choosing to believe the fairy tale from the SNP because it fits their fantasy of independence.

And of course the impact isn't just the loss of tax revenues. It's also the knock on effects of all the job cuts & extra benefit payments.

As part of the UK the falling oil price has scarcely been an issue for the economy. But had Scotland have been independent then there would have been a HUGE shock followed by I'm sure a recession.

Leaving aside the "who said what" on oil prices etc, when did our imaginary independence start? It was planned for next year.

Oil revenue was always going to be a bonus.

The no campaign made a lot more of the oil than yes ever did.

In the same way a dip in prices hasn't brought the UK to it's knees, it wouldn't have destroyed Scotland.

And we'd still be the UK at this moment in time.

Scots could it be because you are part of the UK that you are not feeling the hurt. If my memory serves me correctly I remember Alex Salmond jumping up and down as he extolled the value of oil. Just noticed how quiet he and the rest of the SNP has been on the subject of late.

Ps. niceguy2 I think you are spot on.

The SNP are dangerous, their policies for children are frightening. Named person state guardians for every child.

I think your memory might not be serving you correctly OP, but if you have a link to a recording of Alex Salmond jumping up and down while extolling the value of oil, I'd get a good watching it.

When was he jumping up and down? Like I said, the no side seemed obsessed with oil. If anything I'd say the yes campaign played it down, knowing that it was an argument easily disproved.

Other small independent European nation states manage just fine without oil.

Why do you think so little of Scots that you think we need oil to have a flourishing economy when Finland, Denmark, Iceland, for example do not?

Your OP is nothing but xenophobia.

Jakie I have no issue that an independent Scotland could survive and thrive, but the SNP indpendence documents assumed a large amount of oil revenue to support thier spending promises. Without that, they would have to spend less or borrow more. An independent Scotland following the SNP spending promises would become bankrupt.

Exactly what nice guy said.

Shocking to accuse the op of xenophobia.

No wonder we are called insular with attitudes like that.

Interesting research this week showing the no vote wasn't a result of "the vow". The majority of us managed to see through the shite smoke and mirrors.

Oh and im petrified at the thought of salmond et al calling Thr shots in Westminster. It's my every nightmare come true.

Btw no literal jumping up and down but check salmonds comments circa 2013 about north sea oil being worth 300k per scot.

Salmond's comments about the oil price in January don't indicate that he saw oil revenues as incidental or a sideshow. Prof Ronald Macdonald gave quite an interesting analysis of the potential fiscal impacts here.

And yes, the forecasts for recoverable oil in the SNP figures were at least 50% higher than industry experts predict.

I agree it's perfectly possible to run an economy the size of Scotland's without oil revenue - desirable in fact. But it's inaccurate to suggest that it's a model the SNP were selling the electorate during the campaign.

Please, someone, show some evidence of the SNP selling the 2014 indyref on oil. (I'll grant you the story waa different in 1979.)

I'd like to see that too...

Everyone including the snp knows that oil prices are volatile and have sharp short term fluctuations. That doesn't take away from the fact that they are on a steady tradgectory upwards in the long term.

One of the problems with the white paper, that is apparent on this thread is that it combined the SNP's argument for independence with almost a manifesto they planned to have for the 2016 election if there had been a yes vote.

These are 2 very separate things. The yes campaign was and is bigger than the snp. Other parties' arguments for independence were based on very different spending & tax plans. The SNP's was just one of many. As others have said there was no guarantee they would win in 2016. In fact holyrood is set up for coalition government so all this focus on how independence would have been under a snp majority in 2016 is quite naive.

Please, someone, show some evidence of the SNP selling the 2014 indyref on oil. (I'll grant you the story waa different in 1979.)

I give you the White Paper.

I have a copy kicking around somewhere, but it's quite a big document. Page number would be useful?

If the SNP were making such a fuss about the oil money bring the foundation of independence there must be some evidence of it outwith thehundreds of pages of the white paper (which actually says nothing of the sort).

So give us something else please.