France and Greece Election results!

[LadyWithEDS]

So, what do you think it means for Europe?

Oh good, I love the name tillyminto and it rings a bell, is it something to do with foxes? I just have this very distant memory and I can't think if it's from a book from my childhood or something countryside. (sorry now I'm off topic)

If the Greek state workers, teachers, social workers etc are now on half pay where are the greeks going to keep making savings? If you don't invest in infrastructure like roads you are also scuppered because businesses suffer.

I am not an expert on it, MoreBeta would be the best person to explain this. But the way I understand it is that the govt has been able to sell its debt at a low interest rate because it is being bought up by Bank of England QE money (which has been created out of 'thin air'). Now that QE is apparently ending, the debt will need to be bought by other customers and they will demand a higher rate of interest than the rate offered for QE cash.

As I understand it, QE cash can become inflationary as it is created out of 'thin air' and is increasing the money supply. So there comes a point when it has to stop.

tillyminto = a scouse woman with ideas above her station. i am a southerner but my family if from a shit area outside liverpool...well its the best place on earth but shit as well....

It seems to me that QE is a short term fix and artificially keeps interest rates on gilts low, But it has to end at some point and then the market rate for that interest will increase as the artificial stimulus is no longer there.

That's my understanding of it too. It's little better than the leveraging of the banks in the first place. Money needs to be fixed against real assets or just carry on printing it until it has no value! Its the banks that lent 30 to 50x what they actually held in capital. We bail them out and then we still owe them. God I wish there was a switch where you could turn off all the power, all over the globe and wipe out all debt. I wonder what would happen in the morning

I think there have been such debt writeoffs in history. There would be some big losers, but the people would not end up paying for something they did not create. However, it is all about power and the powerful will not agree to that, so the powerless lose out, which is the way of the world.

I knew I had heard it somewhere, it wasn't a made up name or term.

Claig, in your opinion, is this right, this is the largest redistribution of wealth since the 30's and the money is all travelling in one direction?

The way I see it, governments are in hock, banks are set to go into another credit crunch????? I'll see if I can find what I was reading and link it later. Businesses and corporations and some wealthy individuals still have a lot of surplus capital. So surplus capital and unemployment and a shrinking economy devalues assets which these same capital rich individuals will at some point start to buy up. At what cost though to the rest of us.

No, I don't think it is right. It has been described by some people as being the biggest daylight robbery of the people by the banks in history.

If you google Farage you will hear some of his interviews where he says that what is being done to Greece is a scandal, and that there may well be some people rubbing their hands, wishing Greece to go back, so that they can then buy up all its assets for pennies, but he says, at what cost?, at what social cost to the people?

But that is how the world works. It is about power and wealth and countries and people are just pawns on a chessboard to the players.

wishing Greece to go bankrupt

Yep, I get that impression too sadly. Either that or the Germans will get their fiscal pact and the closer political union will follow shortly.

I will have a look at the links up thread to farage, although I'm guessing I might not like his politics I'm still interested to see what he is saying.

go to youtube and google him. I hadn't heard much of what he says, except on Question Time etc. But I think he tells the truth about this issue, unlike many other politicians. People are committing suicide and living in despair and he understands it and foresaw it and explains it.

I still believe it has all been done deliberately to force through this closer political union, but I may be wrong. We will have to see if the phoenix of a closer union rises out of the ashes.

It's not rumours, here's the BBC on the latest attempt at coalition building. The first two attempts, with more favourable numbers and attuned attitudes between parties, failed. This has the whiff of a desperate long-shot.

After this, there may be one more attempt (basically to appeal to anyone/everyone to have a go), and if that fails, fresh elections.

My understanding of the Greek political sitiuation at the moment is that the latest opinion polls show that if they have an other relection, as now looks likley, the Syriza party that came second will win by a large margin.

This party is very definitely anti austerity and has said publicly it will suspend all debt repayments and wil not implement the austerity meausres agreed by the previous Govt.

I see this as a prediction of the future for many European countries. Ireland to me should always have rejected austerity and defaulted on its debts and still should in its upcoming referendum. Spain, Portugal and Italy should too.

BBC reporting that the current attempt to form a coalition seems to have reached a stalemate. Unless there is a remarkable breakthrough, the expectation is that the attempt will be called off tomorrow. The President must then ask all parties if they want a go. If, as expected after the likelier contenders have tried and failed, there are no takers, new elections could be announced on Monday.

Go Syriza!

Good.

i am not sure its is as simple as not repaying the debt helps the Greek people....

if they end up outside the EU, they will still have corruption, politicians who cannot balance the books and poor tax collection.

personally i would rather be in the euro dealing with the above than outside, having burnt bridges.

Greeks still get better pensions than Hungarians or Poles and yet theses Poles and Hungarians are not rioting or refusing to pay for the public transport and services. Even in Spain the refuse to pay culture is starting amongst the left and not because they don't have money but just because they feel it is up t the state to provide.

But from where is the state to get this money? They have spent it all already. If the left stat widespread non payment then they are inviting anarchy.

The third attempt has now officially failed. BTW, that article has a useful chart which shows current state of the parties.

The President now has to make an appeal to all parties to form a government of national unity. It's not going to work, is it?

Doubt it. Maybe the Generals will take over again. Doubt that too.

I dont see a good way back for Greece

• If they do default on the austerity agreement, there's a very high chance they'll be forced out of the Euro and I doubt the other Euro members will be inclined to make it pleasant for them. Once out of the Euro, they will be a pariah nation which is going to struggle to attract investment, as the government debt will have junk status, and thus all loans in Greece will have junk status (private company cant have a credit rating higher than the government of the country in which it is based).

• If they don't reject austerity, it's a slow death by a thousand cuts

I see the first scenario as a V shaped disaster and the second as a Ushaped one, so I think under 1., things will bottom out at a lower point than in 2., but they will get back to a reasonable position, within, say, 1 generation rather than 2.