"How is he to know god’s used that as a ‘chance at guidance’ (yuck). And then you have a lovely person who gets cancer? Are they to assume somehow they’ve upset god? It’s just too vague and cruel. "
well in islam there are so many stories of prophets and saints and holy men/women afflicted with various sicknesses, ailments, disasters, that 'bad things happening' are rather seen as a badges of honour to them, rather than of dishonour. certainly not divine retribution. or signs of God forsaking them. and muslims, amongst each other, say this to one another also. and these beliefs are very far away from the idea of karma, or the ideas of what goes around comes around. and if it had been that way, the Quran would not have shied away from it.
it could easily have had the idea of karma and what goes around comes around. nothing bad happens to people except that they are bad. its actually far more logical than thinking something bad happened to you because you are a good person.
the second takes some mental gymnastics. and also gives to a sufferer shielding from the eyes of those around them looking upon them with blame and reproachment.that they deserved their suffering.
a very generous God allows us to say 'God's will' when we dont know the cause. "In order that you not despair over what has eluded you..." (Quran 57:23). once you know the laws of physics for why a building crashed down that day, or the relationship between certain chemicals and human biology causing defects or cancer, it becomes something explainable. God is not going to withhold the laws of nature or gravity so that you can eat poison or jump off a building without harm. but we accede to cause and affect, and work around it, work to overcome it, or avoid it. in that too, is God's will, and submission and acceptance to God's will.
as to passive aggressive or obliqueness. that reminds me of some arguments i can have with my 5 year old. they're not going to understand the logic of delayed gratification, or why people need money 'why cant everything just be free?'.
tbh even to compare humans to God as a five year old to an adult is too generous to humans. we are rather like infants in trying to understand the mind of God. cruel, capricious, mercurial, unpredictable, might be what a toddler calls his mum if she has the language, to describe his mothers actions that are done to ensure good child development.