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If you had two girls, would you expect a third baby to be another girl?

56 replies

AngelsInWinter · 08/06/2014 16:38

I would. DP and I are ttcing and I wholly expect it to be another girl if we are successful (this doesn't bother me in the slightest; I love my girls so why wouldn't I want another!). We wouldn't find out the sex at the scan anyway.

(Fwiw I also have a boy, but he has a different father).

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tryingtocatchthewind · 08/06/2014 16:43

I can't remember where I read it but the odds remain pretty much 50:50

BobTheFly · 08/06/2014 16:45

I looked up odds and when I had two boys odds were 53:47 in favour of a third boy. I had a girl.

PourquoiTuGachesTaVie · 08/06/2014 16:46

My mum had 2 girls then a boy.

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AngelsInWinter · 08/06/2014 17:06

Oh right, I really didn't expect it to be around 50:50! We always say that DP "only has girl sperm" Blush

OP posts:
Mintyy · 08/06/2014 17:09

No, I would expect the baby to be a girl or a boy because I am rational.

EdithWeston · 08/06/2014 17:12

It stays 50:50.

The one big study in NY did show an excess of boys if you had already had 3 boys (but by sample size that might not be significant). But no variation from 50:50 with 2 DC of same sex or 3 previous girls.

PacificDogwood · 08/06/2014 17:14
Grin

If you flip a coin twice and it lands on 'tails' (or 'heads') twice, would you expect it to land on 'tails' again? No.

Exactly.

Do you have a preference?

SweepTheHalls · 08/06/2014 17:14

This is basic GCSE Biology! Each time he makes sperm put most simply, half his chromosomes go into each of a pair of sperm ( this is an over simplification, look up meiosis if you want more details). This mean that of the XY sex chromosomes, in eacb male, one sperm gets an X and the other a Y. All your eggs contain an X. So if the Y sperm joins your X egg, that baby is XY, a boy. If the X sperm joins your X egg, XX a girl. So genetically a 50:50 chance each time!

BertieBotts · 08/06/2014 17:15

I read an article ages ago which said that some men do only have successful girl sperm or boy sperm, and that if you have 2 of one gender you have a 75% chance of having another the same gender. Presumably odds would go up the more you have of one gender as the chance would be higher? But who knows and looking at the other responses here it could be total bollocks!

BertieBotts · 08/06/2014 17:17

Yes but sweep if there is a genetic problem which only attaches itself to Xs or Ys then those sperm can be less strong or unable to create a successful embryo or something.

The chance is probably still lower than 75% though.

pommedeterre · 08/06/2014 17:17

There are some us stats floating around the web that show you are generally more likely to have a boy (51%) except when you have two girls when a third girl is more likely.

I am currently pg with a ds after two girls though and know two other women that are the same.

DramaAlpaca · 08/06/2014 17:18

Before she did my 20 week scan on DC3 the sonographer told me that as I had two boys already, I had a 75 per cent chance of having another boy. I've no idea what her evidence was for this, but sure enough, it was another boy Grin

AlarmOnSnooze · 08/06/2014 17:19

I am a girl who came along after 2 boys.

I had ds after having 2 girls.

The odds remain just slightly under/over 50% for each baby, iirc.

usualsuspectt · 08/06/2014 17:23

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Ohwhatfuckeryisthis · 08/06/2014 17:23

Three boys, one girl. 50/50.

Smartiepants79 · 08/06/2014 17:26

I would have no expectations at all.
Having said that I was very sure DD2 would be another girl but that was more to do with how similar my pregnancies had been. Not that I'm more likely to have girls.

AngelsInWinter · 08/06/2014 17:27

Do I have a preference?

If anything, maybe another girl tbh. Although that's a very small preference. I'd seriously be happy with either, for a number of reasons.

Like the coin analogy!

I've heard the 75% thing as well obsessive googling

OP posts:
AngelsInWinter · 08/06/2014 17:30

The thing is we wouldn't find out the sex because I WANT a total surprise. So me being convinced that I'd have another girl kind of ruins that :(

So really? It would be 50:50?!

I even decided that because DP and I had had a girl that we'd have another girl second time. We didnt find out the sex but I still bought pink babygros. And she was a girl!

OP posts:
BertieBotts · 08/06/2014 18:12

If your DP has totally normal sperm then the odds are 50/50 for each one. Assuming that, you already have a 25% chance of having 2 girls anyway.

I'll try to do a diagram (formatting goes funny usually)

==Baby 1 ========== Baby 2

Boy (50%) --Boy (50%)
................\__Girl (50%)

Girl (50%) --Boy (50%)
...............\_Girl (50%)

You can see there are four outcomes, each equally weighted. A boy then a boy, a boy then a girl, a girl then a boy, a girl then a girl. Each outcome has a 25% chance of happening, which is quite high. And that's with totally normal sperm. Of course if your DP happens to have some kind of genetic issue with his Y chromosome, then it will be hard for him to conceive a boy.

Like when you flip a coin, the sex of previous babies doesn't affect the subsequent babies' sex. It's not like you're drawing things from a limited supply - for example if you have five red counters and five blue counters in a bag, and you draw out two red counters in a row. The third counter is more likely to be blue than red because there are still five blue counters in the bag but only three red ones.

I think the 53% status is more accurate. Your base chance is 50/50 but there is a small possibility that one of you has an issue which means that a boy foetus wouldn't be viable. That would probably be less than 3%, but because you've had only girls so far, there's a slightly higher chance you're one of those couples, hence the 3% extra bias. (actually there are slightly more boy babies born than girls anyway, 51/49 so it's a 2% bias)

thecakeisalieagain · 08/06/2014 18:38

Well 8 week old dd came after 2 boys.

I've read the opposite that the chance of having mixed family with 3 children is 75% and all the same sex only 25%. As people have said even after two of the same sex your odds are still practically 50% for the next baby.

Having said that right up until dd was born I assumed we were having another boy.

imip · 08/06/2014 18:52

I've had 5dds, no ds. We were always told 50/50. Either way I wasn't bothered.

Bertie, your eg is interesting. I'm by no means an expert, but isn't their also some statistic that girls survive better than boys in utero, and girl babies once born survive better. I'm sure I've read that before. Would a stat like that also skewer the odds slightly off 50/50.

I'd love to keep conceiving just to see which sex I got!

MrsMaturin · 08/06/2014 18:55

I was happy to have either but tbh dh and I expected another girl and we were right Grin I know it's supposed to be 50-50 but I can think of five families of two girls who had a third girl off the top of my head and none with two girls and a boy......

expatinscotland · 08/06/2014 18:56

I had a boy after two girls.

Eyelet · 08/06/2014 18:57

Girl babies are certainly stronger. Our first dd suffered oxygen starvation during labour and had brain damage. Her doctors all said had she been a boy she would not have survived.

I have two dd and we are going to consider a third hence why I clicked on the thread!

meditrina · 08/06/2014 18:59

Of course, you might get intersex.

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