Webchat with three experts on Brexit and the EU, on Thursday 24 January 11.30am

[BojanaMumsnet]

Hello

Following on from the webchat on Brexit and beyond with Anna Soubry on Tuesday, we’re pleased to announce a webchat on Brexit and the EU, with three guests from The UK in a Changing Europe on Thursday 24 January at 11.30am.

Professor Jonathan Portes is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of Economics and Public Policy in the Department of Political Economy at King's College London. Previously, he was principal research fellow of the National Institute of Economic & Social Research. Before that he was chief economist at the Cabinet Office, and previous to that chief economist at the Department of Work and Pensions.

Professor Catherine Barnard is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe; Professor in European Union Law and Employment Law at the University of Cambridge; and senior tutor and fellow of Trinity College. Catherine specialises in EU law and employment law.

Professor Barnard will be doing the webchat remotely, and will have to leave early, at 12pm.

Professor Anand Menon is Director of The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London. He has held positions at Sciences Po, Columbia University and NYU. He has written on many aspects of contemporary Europe and is a frequent commentator on national and international media and you may have seen him on Question Time last week.

Professors Menon, Barnard and Portes joined us before for a webchat on the ‘divorce agreement’ and possible outcomes in November last year - you can check out that webchat here if you fancy refreshing your memory.

And finally - we are currently trying to line up a pro-Brexit webchat guest as well.

Please do join the chat on Thursday. If you can’t make it, please leave a question here in advance. Do bear in mind the webchat guidelines - one question each (follow-ups allowed if there’s time), and please be polite. Also following recent chats/guest posts we’ve updated our guidelines to let people know that, if one topic is overwhelmingly dominating a discussion with a guest, mods might request that people don't continue to post what's effectively the same question or point. Rest assured we will ALWAYS let guests know that it's an area of concern to multiple users and will encourage them to engage with those questions.

Thanks
MNHQ

@Worldweary

We were given alot of information (spurious or not) during the referendum campaign on how much the EU was costing us and how we could divert the money more gainfully, if we left. I live in a rural area. Not one that overwhelmingly voted to leave. It was 50/50. I worked in a benefits office for quite some time and have seen first hand how lack of regional investment cripples the lives of job seekers e.g. highly-priced bus services that run a couple of days a week or pack up at 3.00 in the afternoon. For those on the panel who have special access to future government plans - Is there any evidence, from the government, that they have plans to channel their newly-acquired funds into regenerating the outlying parts of the UK?

Well I'm not sure how much time or space the government has at the moment to plan for the future as they're completely taken up with Brexit. They have announced something called the Future Prosperity Fund that is intended, in part, to replace EU regional funding but we don't know how that will work yet. Government could, if it chose, do more for those regions than the EU did, but they need to start thinking about how they want to govern us post-Brexit, but there's no sign of them doing so soon, sadly.

Going back to UN permanent seats.

If we do take the no deal path, is it likely (in the medium term) that we will lose our permanent seat and India will gain one?

@Quietrebel

Hello, thanks for coming back to MN. I was very surprised reading about J Rees-Mogg's suggestion to Mrs May to effectively suspend parliament in order to prevent an amendment blocking no deal to be passed. Is there any precedent to such a situation and any way such a move could be countered by MPs?

not that I can think of, no, and I don't think there is anything like majority support for the idea in parliament. This all stems from the tensions created by having a referendum in a parliamentary system. Jacob's claim is that parliament, being full of remainers, is undermining the 'will of the people' expressed in the ref

@bellinisurge

Please can you lay out the likely consequences for the Irish economy of a no Deal Brexit? Thank you.

Ireland will be the member state worst hit by a no deal outcome, though the damage there will be less severe than here. That being said, there will be tremendous disruption, especially to agriculture as a large proportion of the fresh product exported comes though the UK

Correction: sorry I think it was Prof Portes that answered NumberFaker's question but I can't scroll well on this device so apologies if I have this wrong!

@Mistigri

Thank you very much for taking the time to talk to us.

I am reading a lot of reports on twitter about problems with the settled status process, such as problems with the passport recognition process, issues with government records which may result in apparent gaps in employment records for people who have worked continuously in the U.K. for many years, and people whose situation is less straightforward being asked to supply extensive documentation and wait many weeks for a response.

It's also clear that many people don't realise they have to apply, and some will refuse to do so.

What is your opinion on the number of people potentially at risk of a Windrush-type outcome, particularly in the event of no deal? How can that risk be mitigated?

Clearly when you are talkng about perhaps 3 million people even a small error rate is a big problem. Optimistically, tens of thousands of people nmight be at risk - but it could easily be hundreds of thousands. It's really a question of how the government handles it - with Windrush it wasn't so much that there will be peoople whose status is unclear, but that the government - in particular the Prime Minster - simply denied there was a problem, or insisted it was their problem and that if they got deported or lost healthcare it was basically up to them to sort it out. So the issue is whether the PM/Home Office can reverse this mindset and be proactive in actually helping people, especially more vulnerable ones, through the process

I am so depressed!

@TheNumberfaker

I have recently met people who say that they are not at all worried about no-deal or that there will be a few years of hardship but then everything will be much better for the UK. What are the most significant consequences of no-deal in your opinion(s)?

Three things. The short term disruption caused when EU rules suddenly cease to apply with no alternatives in place to govern our interactions with them. Second, the longer term economic damage that will be done by trading with our largest and nearest trading partner purely on WTO terms (which barely any other countries do with their closest trading partners). Finally, and I think not spoken about enough, the political fallout, which will happen because of profound resentment on both sides, which will mean relations between us and the member states will probably sour quite considerably.

@2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney

Food bank food is donated. If prices rise people will donate less won’t they?

they may, but again, this really relates to domestic policy/the benefit system more than Brexit. If people are going hungry in a rich country like the UK, it's the responsiblity of our own government/politicians, deal or no deal.

@PestymcPestFace

Going back to UN permanent seats.

If we do take the no deal path, is it likely (in the medium term) that we will lose our permanent seat and India will gain one?

The problem with the UN system is they can't reform the Perm Council without unanimous agreement. so we'd need to agree to forfeit our seat

Thanks for answering my question. In regards to investment coming into the UK I should have read the primary source instead of relying on mainstream media!

I've just looked up the Deloitte report and have now realised that the cries of 'we have had more foreign investment than France & Germany combined' implying that Brexit hasn't had a worrying impact is...to say the least...misleading.

FYI for those reading, the numbers they're basing this message on covers 2015-2017, not just 2018 as I'd assumed and actually covers up a pretty obvious and very significant downward trend (and apparently the numbers almost halved again in the first half of 2018).

So...yes...note to self...read the actual report not the headlines!

I think public disorder is inevitable now, whether it's because we have a second referendum (if Remain won) or because of the massive financial impact of Brexit, leading to absolute poverty. I would rather cope with the fallout of a second referendum than the latter.

ProfAnandMenon

The problem with the UN system is they can't reform the Perm Council without unanimous agreement. so we'd need to agree to forfeit our seat

Unless we are sanctioned?

@MyNameIsArthur

Sorry, sneaking another question in here...

London is seen as the financial centre of Europe. What is likely to happen to this after Brexit?

We don't know for sure yet. As it stands, the political declaration makes very little provision for services, which means that the City might lose its passporting rights and hence ability to trade as freely as it now does with the rest of the EU. I think London will remain a major financial centre, but it might shrink slightly if jobs are sent to the EU

What would the impact of No Deal be on countries we trade with outside the EU such as the US or Australia?

@2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney

If there is an extension how do you think the conflict with upcoming arrangements for Eu elections will be managed? I have heard Croatia appointing reps when they first joined may be a potential model if there is a conflict ,

The EU is pondering this now to see if they can find a way out. The danger is that citizens here who don't vote try to go to court because they are being denied a chance to

Thanks so much for all your questions, which were great. Got cramp in both hands now so better stop!! Hope we can do this again soon. Anand

@caringcarer

Catherine, please can you inform us if we are legally (not morally) bound to pay the £39 billion to the EU if we leave with no deal? I think there may be an obligation to pay some money for pensions but have heard that they are less than half of the £39 billion total.

There are different views about the legal position, although the UK's own legal advice is that we are obliged to pay much of it. But I think the politics is more important. Failure to pay would further poison relations with the Eu27. And remember post No Deal planes will only keep flying between UK and the EU because the EU has given a temporary waiver - this could be withdrawn at any time. Even after No Deal, we will still be "negotiating" with the EU, and our negotiating hand will be even weaker.

Thank you for answering my questions

Thanks for all the questions. Tough crowd!

Thank you

Thanks so much for coming here to talk to us about this.

Thanks so much to the profs for giving us their time again, and to you all for your questions - hope you agree it's been really interesting. We're going to close this thread now, but hope to have something else to announce webchat-wise soon.

Thanks again
MNHQ