Webchat with three experts on Brexit and the EU, on Thursday 24 January 11.30am

[BojanaMumsnet]

Hello

Following on from the webchat on Brexit and beyond with Anna Soubry on Tuesday, we’re pleased to announce a webchat on Brexit and the EU, with three guests from The UK in a Changing Europe on Thursday 24 January at 11.30am.

Professor Jonathan Portes is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of Economics and Public Policy in the Department of Political Economy at King's College London. Previously, he was principal research fellow of the National Institute of Economic & Social Research. Before that he was chief economist at the Cabinet Office, and previous to that chief economist at the Department of Work and Pensions.

Professor Catherine Barnard is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe; Professor in European Union Law and Employment Law at the University of Cambridge; and senior tutor and fellow of Trinity College. Catherine specialises in EU law and employment law.

Professor Barnard will be doing the webchat remotely, and will have to leave early, at 12pm.

Professor Anand Menon is Director of The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London. He has held positions at Sciences Po, Columbia University and NYU. He has written on many aspects of contemporary Europe and is a frequent commentator on national and international media and you may have seen him on Question Time last week.

Professors Menon, Barnard and Portes joined us before for a webchat on the ‘divorce agreement’ and possible outcomes in November last year - you can check out that webchat here if you fancy refreshing your memory.

And finally - we are currently trying to line up a pro-Brexit webchat guest as well.

Please do join the chat on Thursday. If you can’t make it, please leave a question here in advance. Do bear in mind the webchat guidelines - one question each (follow-ups allowed if there’s time), and please be polite. Also following recent chats/guest posts we’ve updated our guidelines to let people know that, if one topic is overwhelmingly dominating a discussion with a guest, mods might request that people don't continue to post what's effectively the same question or point. Rest assured we will ALWAYS let guests know that it's an area of concern to multiple users and will encourage them to engage with those questions.

Thanks
MNHQ

@borntobequiet

Question: The Conservative party has always claimed to be the party that supports business, and big business in particular has always supported the Conservative party. How on earth is business letting a Conservative Government continue to pursue a course that is bound to impact business adversely, if not catastrophically, driven largely by the extreme right wing of the party? In what way could business put pressure on the government to desist from this course?

This is an interesting question. As we know Boris Johnson famously said ' business' www.ft.com/content/8075e68c-7857-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475. I think the answer lies in the fact that the referendum was about much more than economics (if it was purely about economics, Remain would have won). It was about identity, austerity, control. Business recognises this and has kept its head down. Big business too, especially financial services, knows that it is not a popular cause in the UK after the crisis, even though it makes a significant contribution to the tax base of the country.

I'm a remainer but have been interested to note that some statistics released this week seem to go against the grain of what I was expecting.

Notably increased wages, reduced unemployment and high investment from outside the UK.

I was anticipating the opposite. Do you have any thoughts on this?

You say we won’t starve and yet increasing numbers of people are already relying on food banks. If food banks close due to falling donations as a result of increased food prices, where will these people get food from? Do you mean the majority won’t starve?

Could the Government just stop Brexit saying that it is not in the national interest?

@2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney

Jonathon, following on from my question about no deal being inevitable and your thoughts that extension most likely. Up till now EU have said extension only likely if reason for it such as PV . Barnier confirmed as much yesterday. So is your reasoning for extension due to economic impact on EU?

Broadly yes. Of course it is in the EU's interests to hold our feet to the fire. But, while No Deal will hurt us far more than them, it will still be pretty bad for the EU, especially Ireland. So I don't think the EU will cave in to our demands - but if the choice is No Deal or "kicking the can", then I think they'll opt for the latter.

Can I sneakily repeat my question from the first page, in case it got missed?

I'm a freelance translator so when I work for people or companies in the EU, I'm selling a service rather than a product. The government doesn't offer any advice to the many of us in that situation about how to keep running our businesses after Brexit. Is this anything that you know about? If so, do you have any advice for me and my colleagues? Thanks!

@LeNil

I’m a British National, married to a French national we have two dual nationality children and live in France.

I’m an elected town councilor in France. I asked DExEU what consequences leaving the EU would have on my position. They were unable to answer. Do any of you know, can I stand for re-election in 2020? Should I take French nationality?

I no longer feel completely British, but neither do I feel completely French. What I do feel and identify as is European. What action can I take against a government who is ripping away my identity?

This is an important question and one that all EU-27 governments are grappling with in the post Brexit period. It is also not clear yet whether British nationals resident in an EU state can vote in the EU parliamentary elections. Taking French naitonality would clarify your position.

@Sproutingcorm

Hello and thank you for taking qs.

Further to NumberFaker's important question below, in the event of a no-deal, what would a "few years of hardship" look like in reality? Are we looking at growth foregone ie no one notices or are we talking job losses, reduced wages, real economic pain?

[Asking as an ardent Remainer but I think people on both sides of the argument need to have a better idea of the realities of the situation.]

There are two aspects to no deal. The first is intense short-term disruption as the legal framework governing our interactions with the EU ceases to exist. That will have a big impact on trade, travel etc. The Bank of England has modelled the impact, and some economists, such as Jonathan Portes sitting here next to me, have said it will lead to a recession. Then there is the longer term impact, which is that we will trade with the EU on WTO terms, and this too will be disruptive and lead to lost growth.

@ItsMEhooray

I live in Northern Ireland. Do you think travel from NI to GB will be affected after B day?

No, it shouldn't be.

Thank you for your wonderful questions. Keep them coming for Anand and Jonathan

Goodbye

@TheElementsSong

Thank you for answering questions.

As there seems to be some dissatisfaction from MN Leavers about the unfairness of not having pro-Brexit 'experts' I thought I would redress the balance for them.

Minford is a pro-Brexit economist who is comfortable that Brexit will "mostly eliminate manufacturing".

Bootle has just given a speech saying he is “fed up” with businesses talking about their supply chains as if preserving their businesses were the most important thing in the Brexit negotiations.

What is your view?

I don't like the notion of pro-Brexit expert. What we do is report the results of the research. Sometimes that might help one side (we reported research during the referendum that showed the Govt had underestimated the number of EU nationals in the country) or the other our work on the fact that no deal would be disruptive). If you're openly pro one side or the other, you're a campaigner.

@BlueEyeshadow

Can I sneakily repeat my question from the first page, in case it got missed?

I'm a freelance translator so when I work for people or companies in the EU, I'm selling a service rather than a product. The government doesn't offer any advice to the many of us in that situation about how to keep running our businesses after Brexit. Is this anything that you know about? If so, do you have any advice for me and my colleagues? Thanks!

In the event of No Deal: it depends whether you need to travel to the EU or whether you do all your work remotely. If the latter, you will probably be OK to keep working - although you will need to check the VAT position. If the latter, you might need a visa to go to the EU, depending on the length of your visit etc. I would recommend reading the Commission No Deal notices on service providers etc.

In the event of a deal, you can carry on until at least Dec 2020, and it is likely that you will be broadly OK - although again you might need a visa if travelling for the purposes of (paid) work. I don't think there are any specific licensing requirements for translators (unlike say lawyers) so a specific mutual recognition provision probably isn't required. But this is avery technical area!

@ProfCatherineBarnard

Thank you for your wonderful questions. Keep them coming for Anand and Jonathan

Goodbye

Thank you very much Professor Barnard

If there is an extension how do you think the conflict with upcoming arrangements for Eu elections will be managed? I have heard Croatia appointing reps when they first joined may be a potential model if there is a conflict
,

@Doubletrouble99

Can I ask how realistic you think it is to have a second referendum? How long do you think it would take to organize, what questions would be on the ballot paper and where would it leave us afterwards?

It is possible, because all options are possible. But there are practical problems. First, there is no majority in parliament for one at the moment. Second, parliament would need to agree on a question and that would be far from straightforward (remain vs the deal, remain vs no deal, some mixture of the three, deal vs no deal?) From the moment parliament votes to have a ref, it would take about 22 weeks. So we'd need an extension and probably a long one, as there are good arguments against holding a ref in July when many people are away, so we're talking the autumn.

In terms of afterwards, there is no guarantee a referendum would settle the question. I think if leave one, or if remain won by a wide margin it might. But the latter doesn't look possible given the polls. If remain won by a narrow margin (say 52-48) possibly on a lower turnout than in 2016, I think the fight would start immediately to have yet another vote - a decider.

In the event of No Deal: it depends whether you need to travel to the EU or whether you do all your work remotely. If the latter, you will probably be OK to keep working - although you will need to check the VAT position.

Thank you. I work remotely so this is moderately reassuring, although the VAT issue is worrying. It's something I've raised with my MP, but he still seems oblivious.

@MissMalice

You say we won’t starve and yet increasing numbers of people are already relying on food banks. If food banks close due to falling donations as a result of increased food prices, where will these people get food from? Do you mean the majority won’t starve?

People go to foodbanks not because the UK hasn't got more than enough food but because they don't have enough money, largelyy in turn as a result of benefit cuts/sanctions/delays. None of this is Brexit-related - it's a UK government domestic policy choice. Rising food prices won't make much difference to this, although obviously a significant economic hit might mean even further cuts.

Sorry, sneaking another question in here...

London is seen as the financial centre of Europe. What is likely to happen to this after Brexit?

@MyNameIsArthur

Could the Government just stop Brexit saying that it is not in the national interest?

The ECJ has found that the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 - although it would probably need at least a vote in Parliament if not actual legislation. Of course, this would have huge political repercussions, but there's no technical obstacle.

@HopelesslydevotedtoGu

What effect has Brexit had on the popularity of far right/ nationalist/ anti EU movements in other EU countries?

An interesting impact. they're still quite popular in some countries, obviously, not least because many member states are experiencing the same social and economic and political dissatisfaction that led some people to vote for Brexit here. But if you look in Italy, the new government has rowed back from its anti-Euro stance. And in France, the Front National has also retreated from its anti-Euro anti-EU membership positions, because they are just not very popular. I think in part this lack of popularity is because people have seen how difficult we have found leaving to be, and remember, both Italy and France are in the euro, so if you think Brexit is hard, trying doing it while changing your currency at the same time!!

Food bank food is donated. If prices rise people will donate less won’t they?

Thank you for answering my questions. The forms to take French nationality are already downloaded. I consider myself fortunate that I have the option to take another nationality and benefit from all that the EU offers. No political system is without fault but I truly believe that we are better within Europe than without.

@DippyAvocado

Could you summarise what you believe the government's options are if the WA does not get through Parliament on a second vote? Thanks.

Well, they could try again. I suspect what will happen is if the vote goes against but by less than last week, the PM will take that as encouragement and go back to Brussels and try again. If the deal loses by a similar margin to last time, Labour might try another vote of no confidence (though it's still hard to see Lab or DUP backing it) or the Cabinet might go to the PM and tell her it's time for her to go. So far from certain!

Thank you for answering my question Professor Menon much appreciated. I think the answers you have supplied to NumberFaker and me are very sobering indeed.

It would be interesting if Jacob Rees-Mogg would come on here and address these issues.

@umpteennamechanges

I'm a remainer but have been interested to note that some statistics released this week seem to go against the grain of what I was expecting.

Notably increased wages, reduced unemployment and high investment from outside the UK.

I was anticipating the opposite. Do you have any thoughts on this?

The UK labour market has been performing very well - in terms of jobs - for some years, and Brexit hasn't stopped that. However, wage growth is still fairly - indeed very - weak. It fell sharply immediately after the Brexit vote and hasn't got back to the pre-referendum level yet. As for investment, business investment overall has been extremely weak, and this is at least in part due to Brexit-related uncertainty.

Overall, the Brexit vote has definitely had a significant - but not catastrophic - impact on growth, real wages and investment, but not on jobs. Some of the pre-referendum predictions (especially from eg George Osborne) were indeed scaremongering. But the overall impact is clearly negative. The impact of No Deal is hugely uncertain, although I think a recession is likely.