Webchat with three experts on Brexit and the EU, on Thursday 24 January 11.30am

[BojanaMumsnet]

Hello

Following on from the webchat on Brexit and beyond with Anna Soubry on Tuesday, we’re pleased to announce a webchat on Brexit and the EU, with three guests from The UK in a Changing Europe on Thursday 24 January at 11.30am.

Professor Jonathan Portes is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of Economics and Public Policy in the Department of Political Economy at King's College London. Previously, he was principal research fellow of the National Institute of Economic & Social Research. Before that he was chief economist at the Cabinet Office, and previous to that chief economist at the Department of Work and Pensions.

Professor Catherine Barnard is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe; Professor in European Union Law and Employment Law at the University of Cambridge; and senior tutor and fellow of Trinity College. Catherine specialises in EU law and employment law.

Professor Barnard will be doing the webchat remotely, and will have to leave early, at 12pm.

Professor Anand Menon is Director of The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London. He has held positions at Sciences Po, Columbia University and NYU. He has written on many aspects of contemporary Europe and is a frequent commentator on national and international media and you may have seen him on Question Time last week.

Professors Menon, Barnard and Portes joined us before for a webchat on the ‘divorce agreement’ and possible outcomes in November last year - you can check out that webchat here if you fancy refreshing your memory.

And finally - we are currently trying to line up a pro-Brexit webchat guest as well.

Please do join the chat on Thursday. If you can’t make it, please leave a question here in advance. Do bear in mind the webchat guidelines - one question each (follow-ups allowed if there’s time), and please be polite. Also following recent chats/guest posts we’ve updated our guidelines to let people know that, if one topic is overwhelmingly dominating a discussion with a guest, mods might request that people don't continue to post what's effectively the same question or point. Rest assured we will ALWAYS let guests know that it's an area of concern to multiple users and will encourage them to engage with those questions.

Thanks
MNHQ

[ProfCatherineBarnard]

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[BojanaMumsnet]

@SilverySurfer

And finally - we are currently trying to line up a pro-Brexit webchat guest as well.

Really? Sounds a bit like an after thought.

Hi SilverySurfer,

We had a webchat confirmed with Jacob Rees-Mogg for a couple of months but unfortunately he had to cancel. Ever since then we have been contacting leading Brexiteers and have two live requests in. We hope to be able to announce another webchat soon.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

That will be interesting to read too BojanaMN

[Walkingdeadfangirl]

Hello,
If backbench MPs win a vote to hold a second referendum or to extend A50, can the government ignore that and by default just leave the EU on the 29th March? Or can backbench MPs legally bypass the government and negotiate directly with the EU?

[ProfAnandMenon]

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[ProfJonathanPortes]

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[Tanith]

Thank you for coming to talk.

Do you think the general public who are “prepping” by storing food and supplies are being prudent or hysterical?

[ProfJonathanPortes]

Good morning and welcome. Looking forward to answering your questions

[ProfCatherineBarnard]

Hi there

I very much looking forward to chatting to you again. I am tied up from 12 but will answer as many of your questions as I can before then. Please forgive typos in the haste

Best wishes

Catherine

[ProfAnandMenon]

Hiya! I'm here (sorry to be late) looking forward to your questions.

[ProfAnandMenon]

Depending on what amendments pass, because some of them are about control of the timetable of the House, then procedurally yes, but politically it would be very hard to do.

@Walkingdeadfangirl

Hello,
If backbench MPs win a vote to hold a second referendum or to extend A50, can the government ignore that and by default just leave the EU on the 29th March? Or can backbench MPs legally bypass the government and negotiate directly with the EU?

[ProfCatherineBarnard]

@PestymcPestFace

The UK is split between two major parties. It is split in a totally different way over brexit. We have missed the Autumn deadlines of sorting the WA spectacularly. Negotiation and compromise seems to have no place in UK politics.

Does our whole electoral / parliamentary system need reform?

Get rid of FPTP, bring in a PR system. Move the chamber out of London, possibly to Stoke. Rebuild it in the round, with proper facilities (including female toilets) and well equipped offices for everyone.

I enjoyed this question very much. I think there is a real issue that politics is too London centric. Wales and Scotland, with their own governments, have not been fully involved in the Brexit process. And those nations already have a parliament. Stoke and other places do not. Brexit will require a significant rethink of our constituional system.

[ProfJonathanPortes]

@Wimpling

Hi, thanks for taking the time to answer questions!

What are the implications of the Trade Bill being shelved by the House of Lords? If it isn’t passed, will it affect our ability to trade on WTO rules if we crash out without a deal?

There are lots of other pieces of legislation queuing up to be passed, and it seems that there is not enough time left before 29 March. What does that mean for us in practice?

It won't immediately affect ability to trade, but might constrain ability to do new trade deals - although frankly govt may have more urgent issues to deal with.

[EdwinH]

What would the practical, real-life consequences be if the various criminal investigations that are ongoing against various players in the Leave camp arrive at a finding of criminal wrongdoing? Would that be sufficient to annul the referendum? And what, if anything, would it mean for Brexit itself if the verdicts are delivered after Brexit Day has passed and we've left the EU?

[ProfCatherineBarnard]

@lalalonglegs

Thanks for joining us again. I'd like to ask, if there is a second referendum, what you think the question on the ballot paper should be (should Remain be included? No Deal?)? Anand, after your no-nonsense appearance on Question Time last week, would you be prepared to offer your services as some sort of moderator to challenge the inevitable factual inaccuracies during the rival campaigns?

Thank you for this. Our remit under UK in a Changing Europe is to be impartial, as Anand showed on Question Time last week.

[Note from MNHQ: edited to quote the right question]

[ProfAnandMenon]

The parties are obviously having problems with Brexit because they are structured around a left-right divide and Brexit is more a divide around values that cuts through both parties. I'm with you on moving the chamber out of London, and indeed moving a lot of things out of London but can't see it happening. On PR, the essential problem is it's hard to see a government that won a majority under FPTP agreeing to change it. And a slight change to the system was rejected in 2011 in a referendum. Also, the problem now is arguably a lack of a majority. This might well be the same under PR!

@PestymcPestFace

The UK is split between two major parties. It is split in a totally different way over brexit. We have missed the Autumn deadlines of sorting the WA spectacularly. Negotiation and compromise seems to have no place in UK politics.

Does our whole electoral / parliamentary system need reform?

Get rid of FPTP, bring in a PR system. Move the chamber out of London, possibly to Stoke. Rebuild it in the round, with proper facilities (including female toilets) and well equipped offices for everyone.

[ProfJonathanPortes]

@MyNameIsArthur

Thank you for your time today.

How much are our media and governments in the past forty years to blame for the negative perception that the UK has had of the EU?

It is certainly the case that in the UK - as in other countries - it is convenient for politicians to blame EU for things that go wrong, while taking credit for things that go right! But there is also a general failure of the political class to explain just how much - for better or worse - EU rules and processes have become embedded in our system, and therefore how complicated extricating ourselves will be

[ProfAnandMenon]

Perhaps borderline excessively prudent?! From what I know, I think supermarkets are making preparations to have extra stores in so they don't run out. The truth is that no one is really sure what the precise impact of no deal will be so it's hard to say for sure

@Tanith

Thank you for coming to talk.

Do you think the general public who are “prepping” by storing food and supplies are being prudent or hysterical?

[ProfCatherineBarnard]

@2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney

My question is simple . Whether we like it or not we seem to be heading for no deal do you agree?

There is a good chance that we are heading for a no deal and the government is putting in a lot of resource to prepare for that outcome. You might say too little to late but it is happening in earnest now. Hundreds of civil servants are being moved from their day job to work on no deal issues.

However, while no deal will be very bad for the UK it will also not be good for the EU, especially Ireland, and so I think that eventually Theresa May's deal will be passed or there will be an extension of the Article 50 period to buy some more time.

[LonelyandTiredandLow]

Assuming USA (Trump) continues to show disdain for WTO and UN, do we not feel this may affect our trading if we have a No Deal Brexit and could this potentially see both countries dropping out of UN, seeing as our seat is now less influential than ever before?

[ProfJonathanPortes]

@Tanith

Thank you for coming to talk.

Do you think the general public who are “prepping” by storing food and supplies are being prudent or hysterical?

I'm not stockpiling! But I do know a very level-headed and established economist who is. We won't starve, and my guess is that any shortages will only affect some products. But if I or a relative were dependent on a specific perishable medicine I would be worried, if only because some panic buying/individual level stockpiling is quite likely

[ProfAnandMenon]

Well, leaving aside the question as to whether the EU is a good thing or not, it is certainly the case the Governments that have said they are pro-EU (Blair notably) did not do much at all to convince the public of the benefits of membership. This was most marked under Cameron, who acted like a eurosceptic as PM then was surprised no one believed him when he pivoted to being a passionate defender of membership.

On the media, they have been poisonous and often published untruths. This is most obviously true of Boris Johnson when he reported from Brussels, but he is far from the only one!

@MyNameIsArthur

Thank you for your time today.

How much are our media and governments in the past forty years to blame for the negative perception that the UK has had of the EU?

[ProfJonathanPortes]

@2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney

My question is simple . Whether we like it or not we seem to be heading for no deal do you agree?

No! Anyone who tells you they know what's going to happen doesn't know. No Deal is a possibility, but so are many other scenarios - I think it is highly likely Article 50 will be extended.

[ProfCatherineBarnard]

@Walkingdeadfangirl

Hello,
If backbench MPs win a vote to hold a second referendum or to extend A50, can the government ignore that and by default just leave the EU on the 29th March? Or can backbench MPs legally bypass the government and negotiate directly with the EU?

A second referendum will require an Act of Parliament. At the moment it does not look like there are sufficent MPs who will support a bill requiring a second referendum but this may change in the event of all other options being blocked. I still think it is the least likely outcome.

[ProfAnandMenon]

@LonelyandTiredandLow

Assuming USA (Trump) continues to show disdain for WTO and UN, do we not feel this may affect our trading if we have a No Deal Brexit and could this potentially see both countries dropping out of UN, seeing as our seat is now less influential than ever before?

It will affect the WTO and might undermine its ability to ensure its rules are respected by members. I don't think there's an obvious implication for our UN membership though.